Every time I think about this year’s Denver Broncos, I think about the Denver Broncos of two years ago. I can’t help it. That team was, at least on offense, so functionally superior to the Seattle Seahawks, who smoked their AFC counterpart 43-8 in the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning, in his age-37 season, had been beyond magnificent in the regular season, with 55 touchdown passes and more than 5,400 yards passing. The Broncos easily won games with an elite offense and a barely mediocre defense. Then finally, on the biggest stage, they simply couldn’t break through against the No. 1 defense in the NFL. For a franchise that’s no stranger to losing Super Bowls, the Broncos were a super flop.
But what a difference two years can make. The Broncos are back in the Super Bowl, except now they’re the participant with a No. 1-ranked defense and an only somewhat competent offense. Peyton Manning, who was sublime at 37, has morphed into little more than a middling game manager, coordinating a conservative-at-best playbook that relies on reliable, clock-gobbling rushes from Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson and the occasional mid-range out pattern to wide receivers Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Owen Daniels, who was the major beneficiary in the AFC championship game with two scores. This is now a team that will sooner bore you to tears than outscore you when it matters most.
So it feels easy to go into this game thinking the Broncos are outmatched, that there’s no way they can compete with the dynamic Cam Newton at quarterback, who finds ways to thrash a defense that you can’t anticipate, or the multiple Pro Bowlers on defense, who may not have such gaudy numbers as Denver’s defenders but nonetheless get the job done with efficiency. Is it a fait accompli that the Panthers roll to that 18-1 record on these inherent strengths and Denver is just doomed from the get-go? Maybe.
But then I think about two years ago.
Because for all the talk about Manning and how this may be the final game of his historic career — odds that I put at 75 percent if he loses and 100 percent if he’s victorious — he is still, very much, Peyton Manning. And that means he carries a body of experience and swagger and, when you get down to it, cockiness that few other playcallers can provide. Manning has won one Super Bowl but the chance to go out with one more and tie little brother Eli for the family lead might prove the biggest motivating factor for any recent Super Bowl participant in memory.
If you’re Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak and you’re going into this game thinking, “If we can only score 27 points, we’re champions,” then you’re damn well going to find a way to do that. You’re going to start off with Hillman on those inside handoffs and you’re going to mix in some short passes on second and third down. You’re going to beat up on that Carolina defense up front first, and then you’re going to hit that soft secondary, which has little else besides Pro Bowler Josh Norman. And when that forces those Carolina linebackers to play up in space more, you go back to the ground game and you pound the ball upfield. You do this over and over and you wear out that Panthers front seven, you keep that secondary guessing and on its back heels.
There’s a universe where Manning does in this game what Matt Ryan did to Carolina in Week 16, using pump fakes, stepping up in the pocket, delivering short strikes to Sanders and Thomas so they can work the safeties in space, and throwing the well-timed deep throw for good measure. The Panthers’ defense looked befuddled at times, and all it really took was one great deep pass to Julio Jones (which Luke Kuechly came oh so close to tipping away) to put that game firmly in Atlanta’s hands.
And the fact is if there’s any defense in the league that can make Carolina’s offense look as pedestrian and downright frazzled as Atlanta made them look in their sole loss, it’s Denver. The Broncos allowed the fewest yards of any team in the NFL, including fewer than 200 passing yards per game. Their rushing defense was third-best. With linebacker Von Miller, who was selected second in the 2011 draft after Newton, playing at near Watt-ian levels of ferocity — his 2.5 sacks and a pick against New England in the AFC championship won’t soon be forgotten — this Broncos front seven is primed to give Newton all sorts of issues. This Carolina offensive line, which allowed for the second-most rushing yards of any offense, will be tested on every play. And defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, now 68 and perhaps facing his last best chance at finally winning a Super Bowl, knows how to prepare a defense. This will be his ultimate test, but one that he’s capable of passing.
For Denver to win, Manning needs to play like the quarterback who has bookended this Broncos season, with safe and manageable plays, rather the one who flamed out in midseason, due to injury, the inexorable march of time that comes for us all, or whatever. The Broncos defense can conceivably hold the Panthers’ offense in check, at least enough to give Denver a puncher’s chance. The Broncos will still need to score points, but if Manning is smart and the duo of Hillman and Anderson can chew up clock and move the sticks on first and second down with some regularity, then this Super Bowl becomes an exercise in ball possession that greatly favors Denver. Manning is no Russell Wilson, who torched the Broncos two years ago, but he doesn’t need to be.
Yes, the Broncos are a vastly different team from two years back. They may not have much of a chance of winning this Super Bowl the way the Seahawks did once, but you only need to win by one, and with this defense and a former Super Bowl MVP at quarterback, that’s an eminently achievable goal.
