It may have taken way too long, but The Americans, a popular choice for The Best Show on Television (at least among people who a) write about television, and b) spend too much on Twitter), was nominated for Outstanding Drama Series at the 68th Primetime Emmy Awards. The most recent season was its fourth (and its finest), which is an important distinction to make: five of the six other series competing for Outstanding Drama have already been nominated in this category before, and the other, Mr. Robot, got it in its first season. Better Call Saul, Game of Thrones, Homeland, and House of Cards also received season one nominations; Downton Abbey had to wait until season two. The Americans is the late bloomer of the bunch, the Rachael Leigh Cook in She’s All That. We, the #PoorMartha fanatics of the world, knew the Jennings were beautiful all along; Freddie Prinze, Jr., er, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences had to wait to see them with their glasses off.
You never want to peak too early — this is true in real life, and award shows — but The Americans probably has no shot at winning, especially against odds-on repeating favorite Game of Thrones and upstart Mr. Robot, right? Well, let’s find out. I looked back at every Outstanding Drama Series class since 1990 to see if any show that was first nominated in season four has ever won.
1990 and 1991
L.A. Law (first nominated: 1987, season one)
1992
Northern Exposure (first nominated: 1991, season one)
1993 and 1994
Picket Fences (first nominated: 1993, season one)
1995
NYPD Blue (first nominated: 1994, season one)
1996
E.R. (first nominated: 1995, season one)
1997
Law & Order (first nominated: 1992, season two)
1998 and 1999
The Practice (first nominated: 1998, season two)
2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003
The West Wing (first nominated: 2000, season one)
2004 and 2007
The Sopranos (first nominated: 1999, season one)
2005
Lost (first nominated: 2005, season one)
2006
24 (first nominated: 2002, season one)
2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
Mad Men (first nominated: 2008, season one)
2012
Homeland (first nominated: 2012, season one)
2013 and 2014
Breaking Bad (first nominated: 2009, season two)
2015
Game of Thrones (first nominated: 2011, season one)
So, that’s not promising for The Americans.
Other deserving shows have won Outstanding Drama Series four-plus seasons into its run — Breaking Bad remarkably didn’t win until season five, same with 24 — but they were all nominated early on. You can keep going back in time, to the decade in which The Americans is set, and it doesn’t get much rosier. Hill Street Blues won in season one, and for seasons two, three, and four, too. After two nominations for seasons two and three, Cagney & Lacey finally won for seasons four and five. L.A. Law and thirtysomething closed out the 1980s with, you guessed it, season one Emmy wins.
A show’s best bet is to ideally win in season one, or at least be nominated by season two. By season three, there’s almost no chance at winning the Emmys’ top dramatic prize. But if anyone can do it, it’s Mail Robot.
