One of the key drivers of suspense in Game of Thrones is that pretty much everybody has a target on their back. It doesn’t matter how beloved they are, how crucial they are to the plot, or anything else: Everybody has a pretty good chance of winding up dead. Some, however, seem to have better odds of dying than others.
The website A Song of Ice and Data uses machine learning to figure out who might ruin a wedding next in the books, and by extension the show. The team ran every page of the books through an algorithm to figure out who’s most likely to die and what factors might influence their death. Along the way, the team discovered a few very interesting factoids about how characters punch out.
There Are Way More Men Than Women, But Women Live Longer
This is obvious if you watch the show, but the ratio is what’s surprising here. There are two men for every woman on the show. The trade-off, though, is that men tend to be the ones on the chopping block, by dint of being on the Night’s Watch, fighting in wars, or being Joffrey. In fact, Westeros is a pretty bad place to have a penis if you’re hoping to die in bed after a rich full life: By the end of the fifth book, 57 percent of the male characters introduced are still alive, while 79 percent of the female characters introduced have made it out. Well, so far, anyway.
Being Really Old Is A Good Way To Survive
One of the more surprising statistics is that your age matters a lot to whether a character makes it out alive. Kids have a shockingly high mortality rate in Westeros, as nearly a third of children aged 0 to 10 die in the books, but between the ages of 20 and 40, a character’s odds of dying jump to above 40 percent, with characters between 31 and 40 having the highest mortality rate. But once you get to retirement age, you’re less likely to die. Well, less likely to die prematurely, at any rate: Senior citizens in Westeros saw their odds of dying decline with each decade they got under their belt after 60. Of course, there’s a mortality spike in the 51-60 age bracket, so, uh, maybe it’s a good idea to retire early.
Being A Peasant Won’t Save You
You might notice nobles tend to have a short shelf life in Westeros. But even if you’re not playing the game of thrones, you’re probably going to die anyway. The data showed that being noble or being a peasant doesn’t matter much to whether or not you die. It’s just that nobles are more likely to have a death more important to the plot.
Anyone Can Die… Because There Are So Many Cast Members
After all was said and done, so far, George R.R. Martin has introduced 2,028 characters across all Game of Thrones media. As a result, the show is packed with characters and keeps getting more jam-packed with every episode: The data shows that an average of 3.88 characters are introduced every time the show airs. No wonder it’s bumping people off constantly, it’s got to make room somewhere.
So Who’s Up Next?
In short, if you’re a dude under 60, you have a pretty good chance of a premature death. The good news is that in terms of fatalities, the algorithm isn’t 100 percent accurate. The team found that it guessed deaths accurately roughly 50 percent of the time. That said, the algorithm does seem to be fairly on point in a few respects.
For example, it predicts the next character most likely to die as Tommen, which, in light of his hunger strike and depression, seems a pretty safe bet. Then again, the third most likely death the algorithm ranks is Daenerys, which seems a bit unlikely. But that’s what the premiere is for: We see who goes out next this Sunday.
