With a loss in Game 3, the Cavs would fall into a 3-0 hole against the Golden State Warriors in what would shape up to be a worst case scenario for Cleveland and LeBron James. Even though they have the best player in the world in their corner, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Cavs could fight back from that hole against a potentially all-time great Warriors squad. No team had ever come back down 3-1 in the Finals before, and no team has ever been down 3-0 to a team like this one – that also added Kevin Durant.
But still, there are plenty of reasons to believe this series isn’t over. We have two games in Cleveland on the horizon, and as we all know, a series doesn’t start until the road team wins a game. The Cavaliers have LeBron James, who is still, you know, LeBron James. Kevin Love has looked great, and everyone else on the team who has struggled so far may just need some home cooking to get settled and make this series interesting.
With all this in mind, we had two of our writers sit down and discuss where the series is going to go next.
Bill DiFilippo: Alright, Brad. Tonight is Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Golden State has a pretty commanding 2-0 lead – which, we must mention, means we’re in the same scenario as we were last year. The series is moving back to Cleveland. The question we are tasked with answering: Does the series end in Cleveland, or is it going to head back to Oakland?
Brad Rowland: Funny how we’ve moved from “Can the Cavs do it again?” to “Can the Cavs take a game?” in the span of 96 game minutes but I can’t really argue. For me, it comes down to Game 3, simply because it becomes academic at that point. I can’t imagine a scenario in which the Warriors let off the gas with 16-0 on the table and the Cavs, even with LeBron, can’t expected to jump off the mat yet again with an insurmountable 3-0 deficit in the cards. Vegas has the Warriors as a slight favorite in Game 3 which … seems about right?
BD: Yeah that’s the irony of this entire series – last year, Golden State won Game 1 by 15 points and Game 2 by 33 points. This year, the Dubs won Game 1 by 22 and Game 2 by 19. That’s not too terribly far off from what we had last year – heck, on aggregate, Cleveland is doing better than they did last year.
But for some reason this just feels inevitable. I can’t quite put a finger on why that is, but I completely agree that everything depends on Game 3. I don’t think Cleveland is going to win. I also don’t think they’re going to win Game 4 for the reasons you laid out. What say you?
BR: Something in my gut tells me that Cleveland steals one. We haven’t seen “good Kyrie” yet in this series and that is doubly true for guys like Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith. Beyond that, the crowd was absolutely electric in Oakland and it feels like that will be the case again in Cleveland. If LeBron can play an “A” game by his standards and a few of his teammates (Kyrie, especially) can lift their level of performance, the playing field levels considerably. Does that mean they win? Uh, maybe.
The Cavs still need a game in which a couple of Golden State’s stars struggle and/or encounter foul trouble, plus a spot in which they can actually keep the Warriors under 120. I’m well aware that it takes blind faith in LeBron to fully predict a Cavs win and I won’t go there but … it’s possible and it feels (super) weird to consider this Eastern Conference juggernaut getting swept.
BD: I guess the response to this is do you think Cleveland’s guys not named LeBron or Kevin Love struggling are because they’ve been off or because Golden State is making those dudes non-factors? If you think it’s the former, I think it’s easy to make the case that the Cavs can make this a series now that it’s moved back to their place. If you think it’s the latter, you are banking on the Warriors to be off at least once. I think it’s the latter. I don’t think Golden State will be off at all – the quest for 16-0 is absolutely something they’re thinking of, and with how the Finals ended last year, I think they’re all motivated to really make a statement.
You kind of mentioned this, but Cleveland needs a lot of dudes to play well for them to get a game off of the Dubs. Who is the one player you think most needs to come up big if they want to get this back to Oakland? Is it someone who has struggled thus far, or does LeBron have to go for a triple-double with 50 points or something?
BR: Well, LeBron might have to do that, but if I have to pick one guy, it’s Kyrie Irving. There is an argument to be made for Tristan Thompson and he has not played well at all. With Thompson, though, a lot of it is Tyronn Lue trusting him enough to roll with him instead of defaulting to offense-only lineups. Cleveland can only responsibly guard Golden State if Thompson is on the court and functioning at a high level.
Moving back to Irving, however, I think it’s clear that the Cavs need a “No. 2” option and, for as good as Kevin Love was in Game 2, it didn’t matter. Irving’s defense is rarely good but it has been especially galling in this series and his offensive productivity is down from where it has to be. He’s fully capable of taking over a game by his lonesome (and we’ve seen that) so it might be what it takes for Cleveland, for better or worse.
BD: I think I agree on Irving – he’s especially the person I’m looking at if Cleveland’s defense can’t slow down Golden State’s offense, because they need someone other than LeBron to score consistently. Plus when Irving’s hitting shots, that frees up LeBron a little bit and makes life a little easier on everyone else. There’s just so much he adds that makes things easier on offense.
But I have to go with Thompson. Cleveland, more than anything, has to stop getting punched in the mouth by the Dubs. I think playing at home helps them with this a lot, but I also think they need Thompson to set some kind of a tone early on. He is the person who can turn this game into something of a mess, which I think Cleveland needs if they want to make this get to a Game 5/6/7.
Alright, final question(s): What did you have as the outcome of the Finals and who was your Finals MVP? Have either of those changed at all?
BR: Coming into the series, I took the cop-out and went with Warriors in 7 with Stephen Curry as the MVP. I’d certainly change that outcome prediction now (though not the winner) but Curry still has a live chance with the way he’s been playing. Kevin Durant would almost certainly be the MVP choice through two games but Curry isn’t that far off and there is at least 96 minutes to play. Do you have any regrets?
BD: I picked the Warriors in 5 and Durant. I’m kind of waffling on KD vs. Curry – both have been incredible – but my only regret at this point is I didn’t pick Golden State in 4.
