Kawhi Leonard is the new Kyrie Irving, in that he’s this year’s superstar that has publicly (by way of multiple reputable reporters) requested a trade. After months of speculation the star would possibly be on the trade market, it became as official as it can be on Friday.
Even moreso than Kyrie Irving, there is reason for pretty much every team in the NBA to have interest in this trade, as Leonard is as unique a talent as there is in the NBA. The bigger question is what teams will be willing to part with for a player with one year remaining on his deal before he can decline his player option and hit free agency once again. The prospect of Leonard only being a one-year rental may keep some teams from putting their best assets on the table without reassurances from Kawhi that he’ll stick around (which he has no reason to really give a team).
The Lakers reportedly top Leonard’s wishlist of destinations, but there have been grumblings he would simply like to be in a bigger market, whether L.A. or New York or anywhere else. The Spurs, however, don’t have to do him any favors (and honestly, after all this it’d be stunning if they wanted to) so every team can feel like they have an opportunity to get him if they’re willing to pay the price.
That leads to a number of teams legitimately being in the mix for Leonard, with some that you would expect, and others that may come as a surprise. The list below is in alphabetical order and based off of both reports about teams expected to make runs at Leonard, as well as some speculation by yours truly into teams that can make very intriguing offers to San Antonio. Let’s get weird!
Boston Celtics
Spurs get: Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, MEM 2019 1st
Celtics get: Kawhi Leonard and Patty Mills
Boston has to give up one of their top-flight superstars in a Leonard deal, simply because that’s the only way the money works. Horford doesn’t make much sense to give up, given that he’s their only starting caliber center on the roster. Irving works better financially, but he has the same contract as Kawhi and the Spurs would have to be comfortable with re-signing him next season (and they’d probably ask for a bit more if Irving were involved).
Hayward and Rozier for Leonard and Mills make the money work while also giving San Antonio some long-term stability in Leonard while also giving them a chance to pair Rozier with Dejounte Murray as the backcourt of the future, with Rozier as an RFA next year. The Spurs will assuredly push for Jaylen Brown to be included over Rozier (and for the Kings pick over the Memphis pick) and they reportedly turned down Boston at the trade deadline. However, barring Leonard doing something few players are willing to do, which is commit to re-signing with the Celtics, I can’t see Boston risking taking a strength (wing depth) and leaving themselves open to gutting it.
Boston gets an upgrade over Hayward and Mills costs more this year than Rozier, but is a cheaper backup point guard long-term as Rozier is going to get paid in 2019. As we’ve seen over the years, Boston isn’t exactly willing to part with much in a move, and given how successful they were this past year, I don’t think they’ll be too aggressive in breaking up their roster to land Leonard this summer.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Spurs get: Kevin Love, Cedi Osman, No. 8 overall
Cavs get: Kawhi Leonard, Patty Mills
It would be pretty hilarious if after Leonard’s camp pushed the Lakers as the dream scenario, which sent Lakers fans into a frenzy about how that means they’re getting LeBron, the Cavs swooped in and landed Leonard in a trade and that was enough to convince LeBron to stay. I don’t know if this is a better package than what L.A. can offer, but I do know that if it’s close, San Antonio would much prefer not to help the Lakers out (see, the Paul George trade last year purposefully moving him West). This all comes down to how much San Antonio values the No. 8 pick and what other deals are offered to them.
The money in a Cavs-Spurs trade is weird, and you could make it just Love and 8 for Kawhi, so this really comes down to how San Antonio wants to have its cap space structured in the future and whether they think Mills is a player they want around for the inevitable rebuild. It’s possible they’d prefer that, but Osman is an intriguing young player that might line up with their shifting timeline moreso than Mills at a cheaper price.
Los Angeles Clippers
Spurs get: Tobias Harris, No. 12 and No. 13 overall picks
Clippers get: Kawhi Leonard
I’m not sure this gets it done. Especially if some of the other deals mentioned here are on the table, but Kawhi wants to be in L.A. and while the Lakers might be his most preferred destination, the Clippers also figure to try and get into the mix. The problem for the Clippers is they don’t have an awful lot of young assets currently on the roster (Sam Dekker maybe gets thrown into this mix), but the two late lottery picks give them a bit of ammunition and Tobias Harris has emerged as a really nice 3-and-D player that the Spurs will get for at least a year before determining if it’s time to really reset going forward.
Los Angeles Lakers
Spurs get: Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Luol Deng, No. 25, and future LAL 1st
Lakers get: Kawhi Leonard and Patty Mills
The problem for L.A. is the only way to make the money work is to include Luol Deng, which effectively negates the inclusion of one or two of the assets going to San Antonio. The Spurs would have to be really high on Ball and Ingram to do this, because sending Leonard to L.A. all but assures that future pick of being mediocre as that likely means they will land another top free agent (maybe LeBron) and would have a great chance of re-signing Kawhi.
This is a popular thought given Kawhi’s desires, but the Spurs have no reason to entertain his request of where he’s dealt, and I don’t think the Lakers can put together a strong enough deal to make San Antonio think otherwise.
Philadelphia 76ers
Spurs get: Markelle Fultz, Robert Covington, No. 10 overall
Sixers get: Kawhi Leonard, Derrick White
The value of this deal comes down to what the Spurs think of Markelle Fultz moving forward. If they think he can get back to being the dynamic offensive player everyone expected of him coming out of Washington, this might be the most intriguing option. If they have genuine concern about him moving forward, it might not even be a consideration.
Robert Covington seems like a very Spurs-y player that they could continue developing into a quality starting wing in the league with the defensive capability to at least begin filling the hole vacated by the departing Leonard. The 10th pick could yield the Spurs another quality young piece as they would shift immediately into a rebuilding mode, albeit with plenty of quality assets in hand that could gel quickly.
The Sixers get, obviously, Kawhi, and White makes the financials work while also being a potential role player in the backcourt. Philly’s one glaring need is on the wing and slotting Leonard in alongside Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid would be fairly terrifying on both ends of the floor. If San Antonio isn’t in love with Fultz, this might require some added finessing in the form of Dario Saric’s inclusion, which would again change who has to go back to Philadelphia as that adds another $2 million plus in salary.
Sacramento Kings
Spurs get: Iman Shumpert, Willie Cauley-Stein, and the No. 2 overall pick
Kings get: Kawhi Leonard
If the Spurs are believers in Luka Doncic — and if there’s any team that should be confident in its ability to get the most out of an international star, it’s San Antonio — then this might be the most intriguing package any team can offer. The Kings clearly aren’t sure what they want to do with the No. 2 pick and there is real buzz that they may try to flip it in a Leonard trade.
Add the Kings to the list of teams expected to pursue Kawhi Leonard. No clarity on what they'd be willing to offer, but the notion of the No. 2 pick being on the table is a strong start.
— Sam Amick (@sam_amick) June 15, 2018
Another team to watch in the Kawhi sweepstakes: Sacramento. Kings have talked to teams about the No. 2 pick, per sources, and desperately want an established star.
— Chris Mannix (@SIChrisMannix) June 15, 2018
It would be incredibly Kings-y to move the No. 2 pick for what would almost assuredly be a one year rental of Kawhi Leonard. I wouldn’t do this if I were the Kings unless he’ll commit long-term, and if I was Kawhi I would not commit long term. Still, this is a very real possibility and I feel like it might be the strongest package the Spurs will get offered.
Toronto Raptors
Spurs get: DeMar DeRozan and Pascal Siakham
Raptors get: Kawhi Leonard and Patty Mills
If San Antonio wants to continue competing this might be their best option, along with Boston’s offer. DeRozan is expensive, but if the goal is to avoid a rebuild they’d get a star in his prime locked up for years to come (like with Hayward in the Celtics deal). I floated this after the Raptors season ended as a possibility, because it’s really the only way to trade DeRozan and upgrade the roster. I’m not sure it’s what either team wants, but you can make sense of it from both sides.
