2017-18 Record: 29-53 (11th in East)
Players Added: Mario Hezonja (free agency), Kevin Knox (draft), Mitchell Robinson (draft), Noah Vonleh (free agency)
Players Lost: Michael Beasley (free agency), Kyle O’Quinn (free agency), Troy Williams (waived)
Projected Team MVP: Kristaps Porzingis
The Knicks are in a tough spot. The team has one foundational piece in Kristaps Porzingis, but the talented big man is recovering from a torn ACL and his timeline for full-fledged return is up in the air. Because New York probably isn’t a contender to make the playoffs without him, the Knicks have a decision to make when it comes to being overly cautious with their best player, allowing for extra time to facilitate a 100 percent return, or the option of simply bringing Porzingis back when he is able to do so and, in the process, risk damaging the team’s draft position in 2019.
In truth, the reality is likely to land in the middle and, if Porzingis plays even half of the 2018-19 season, he is still the most valuable player on New York’s roster. That isn’t to say that the Knicks are void of competent players, with Courtney Lee, Enes Kanter, Tim Hardaway and others on board to provide some semblance of normalcy. However, most of the team’s top talent comes with real weaknesses and no one can approach Porzingis in terms of two-way impact when he is on the floor.
In the grand scheme, the 2018-19 season won’t be one to remember for Porzingis, simply because he won’t be available for the bulk of the 82-game slate. Still, he could have the opportunity to make an impact upon arrival and that is something that can’t be said for anyone else on the roster to the same degree.
Team X-Factor: Frank Ntilkina
There are many options for this “honor,” ranging from rookie Kevin Knox to established (but highly-paid) veterans in Hardaway and Kanter, or even a newcomer in Mario Hezonja. The Knicks absolutely need to find out what they have in Frank Ntilikina, though, and that places the spotlight on him.
Ntilikina was the team’s lottery pick in 2017 and, while he isn’t the shiny new toy anymore with Knox on board, he is an intriguing piece. Ntilikina was drafted under the guise of the team using the triangle offense but, before he played a game, that was out the window. The result is some question about whether he is able to stick as a full-time point guard, particularly without a lead ball-handler on the wing. At the moment, the Knicks don’t really have that player (with apologies to Hardaway) but New York does have a couple of point guard-only players to evaluate (Trey Burke and Emmanuel Mudiay), leaving Ntilikina in limbo.
Make no mistake, the Knicks would be in a much better place from a team building standpoint if Ntilikina is able to play point guard effectively and initiate the offense. If that doesn’t occur, he can still be a (very) useful piece given his elite defensive tools but Ntilikina would be a pure role player under that scenario, leaving the Knicks searching for an impact guard at the point of attack. There are a lot of intriguing players for this team but Ntilikina tops the list for the future.
Best Case Scenario:
The Knicks have draft considerations in the mix, with the team holding its own 2019 first round pick. As a result, there is some incentive to let the team fall in the standings with an eye toward adding another top-tier talent to the mix. However, the Knicks also have big-picture aspirations in free agency next season, leading to a delicate scenario in which they probably don’t want to be too deep in the lottery while trying to entice impact players to New York next summer.
As a result, the best case scenario revolves around health and development. Porzingis is, by far, the team’s best piece and his ability to prove full health and provide effectiveness is priority No. 1 for the organization. Beyond that, development from Knox and Ntilikina would come in handy, with Mitchell Robinson also in that mix to a lesser degree. Moreover, the best case scenario also likely includes strong play from the highly paid veterans, leading to potential trades (with a future-facing slant) and a team record that falls short of the playoffs but not by a comical margin.
Worst Case Scenario:
This could be really ugly. If Porzingis’ rehabilitation stalls in any way, it might be wise to put him on the shelf for the bulk of the season and, if that happens, a case could be made that the Knicks could be the worst team in the NBA. That obviously isn’t the case when Porzingis plays but, if you take him away, the parts aren’t enticing and David Fizdale will have an uphill battle.
While that wouldn’t be the absolute worst thing in the world given the draft implications, New York struggling mightily because Knox and Ntilikina struggle wouldn’t be great, and that goes for the veterans as well. The Knicks have high hopes for next summer but, if the doomsday scenario manifests, it will be harder for them to sell hope to free agents and, by extension, the fan base.
