Listen, Week 10 wasn’t kind when it comes to NFL handicapping in this space. After a positive result on Thursday, Sunday brought ugliness to the tune of a winless day and a 1-4 week. The process wasn’t ideal, the results weren’t good, and these things happen. Alas, Week 11 brings more opportunity and, in zooming out, the first ten weeks of the year have been rock-solid on the whole.
As always, we strive to maintain our principles and, before we get to the five-pack of games, let’s glance at the big picture.
- Week 10: 1-4
- 2023 Season: 26-21-3
Come get these winners.
Carolina Panthers (+10.5) over Dallas Cowboys — Widely Available
This is the first of two double-digit underdogs we have this week, and Carolina is at home for good measure. There isn’t a lot to get excited about for Carolina, but the defense has shown more in recent days, and the Panthers have extra rest after playing on Thursday last week. I wouldn’t love this at 9.5, but 10.5 is an appealing number here.
Cleveland Browns (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers — Widely Available
It brings me no joy to back Dorian Thompson-Robinson against the Steelers. I can assure you of that. However, Cleveland is the sharp side this week as the numbers continue to make no sense for Pittsburgh. Granted, this might just be Mike Tomlin voodoo, but Cleveland’s defense is the best unit in this game and I continue to believe the downgrade from Watson to whichever backup quarterback for the Browns is smaller than the market indicates. On the bright side, maybe I’ll stop fading Pittsburgh if they beat us again this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12) over San Francisco 49ers — DraftKings
San Francisco is very likely to win this game. The 49ers were utterly dominant last week, and I get that this is a mismatch on paper. Still, this number should be 9.5 or 10 and we can grab 12. It probably won’t be a fun sweat, but principles are principles.
TEASER: Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.5) over Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills (-1) over New York Jets — BetMGM
We’ve been profitable on teasers this year, but last week was gross. We’ll go back to the well on Buffalo, choosing to buy (very) low on the Bills, and Jacksonville is coming off a disastrous showing against San Francisco. These are two home favorites that should get home.
Los Angeles Rams (+1) over Seattle Seahawks — Widely Available
Matthew Stafford is in line to return here and, provided he does, this is a number I like a lot for the Rams. Los Angeles simply isn’t the same team without him, but Stafford unlocks the Rams’ offense and this is a friendly overall spot.
