The 2017 NBA Playoffs are (mercifully) here. After an 82-game marathon, the league’s second season is set to begin in earnest. The 16 best teams in the league (give or take) will be kicking things off over the weekend, and in the NBA more so than any other team sport, one player can impact the proceedings in a virtually immeasurable way.
With that as the backdrop, our mission is to uncover the most important single player on each of the 16 playoff-bound squads. For the most part, “most important” also means “best” but, as you will see, it isn’t always the case. Let’s get to the teams, coming at you in alphabetical order and beginning with the No. 5 seed in the East.
Atlanta Hawks – Dennis Schröder
Schröder isn’t the best player on the Atlanta Hawks, as that is an honor bestowed upon Paul Millsap by a wide margin. In fact, Schröder probably isn’t even the second-best player on a team that features Dwight Howard in the middle. However, the Hawks go as Schröder goes. The 23-year-old point guard has taken the floor in 42 of Atlanta’s 43 victories this season. In those games, Schröder averaged 19.2 points and 6.5 assists per game while shooting 48.5 percent from the floor and 40.1 percent from three.
In the 37 losses that he participated in, though, Schröder’s efficiency cratered (41.5 percent shooting, 27.9 percent from three) and that isn’t a surprise. The Hawks will have their hands full with John Wall in the first round. If Schröder isn’t “on” for the better part of seven games, Atlanta will be exiting the playoffs in quiet fashion.
Boston Celtics – Isaiah Thomas
When the Celtics deploy All-Star point guard Isaiah Thomas, they are tremendous offensively. For the season, Boston’s offensive rating sits at 113.6 with Thomas on the floor, and when he heads to the bench, that number dips to an ugly 99.0 offensively. The defensive side is an entirely different story, with the diminutive point guard giving back a lot of production, but the Celtics continue to be (much) better when Thomas plays in an overall sense.
Can he continue his lights-out play in a playoff scenario? That remains to be seen. At this point we know that Boston can’t score consistently without Thomas on the floor and they need him to play big in April and May.
Chicago Bulls – Jimmy Butler
It wouldn’t be that difficult to argue that Dwyane Wade is the most important player for the Bulls, if only for negative reasons. Wade is, of course, a legendary figure in the NBA and with good reason. However, Chicago has played its best basketball without him on the floor this season and his absence opened things up for the Bulls to score much more effectively and efficiently.
That said, Jimmy Butler is the only answer here. At this point, Butler might even be underrated as he makes the leap to become a top-10 player in the NBA and he has been phenomenal this season. The Bulls have an uphill battle against the top-seeded Celtics, but if Butler is easily the best player in the series, the door might be cracked for an upset.
Cleveland Cavaliers – LeBron James
The best player on the planet also happens to be the most valuable and important player on the reigning NBA champions. If James isn’t in full-fledged God mode, it is difficult to believe that Cleveland can repeat. In the same breath, does anyone actually want to pick against James doing what he did less than 12 months ago?
Golden State Warriors – Steph Curry
This is a photo finish, because of course it is. Stephen Curry is the reigning two-time NBA MVP (at least for now) and, as such, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him on this list. Curry was the centerpiece of the team as it demolished the league down the stretch and, for all the scrutiny, he just completed a season while averaging 25.3 points and 6.6 assists per game while making more than four threes a night. In short, he’s very good.
The competition is Kevin Durant, simply because the Warriors might not be able to achieve their ultimate goals without Durant peaking at an optimal time. Still, the choice is Curry, if only because Golden State just might be the favorite anyway with Durant at half-speed. That’s a crazy thought.
Houston Rockets – James Harden
Houston’s supporting cast has been phenomenal this season, with Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, and Lou Williams churning out legitimate production. Much of that, though, can be credited to Mike D’Antoni and James Harden, and the lefty is the engine for the Rockets. I would argue that Harden, and not Russell Westbrook, was the best offensive player in the NBA this season and Houston’s overall offensive upside stems from that. His defensive issues are well documented, his playing style isn’t always pretty and the Rockets might flame out, but James Harden is wildly important for Houston.
Indiana Pacers – Myles Turner
This is a textbook example of getting too cute but here we are. Paul George is, quite easily, the most valuable player on the Pacers roster and Jeff Teague (who played all 82 games) might be No. 2 on the list. When it comes to ultimate playoff ceiling, though, Myles Turner unlocks things for the Pacers.
The 21-year-old big man enjoyed a breakout season in year two, averaging 14.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game with real efficiency in the form of 51.1 percent shooting and a PER of 18.51. Against the Cavs in round one, we know that George has to be phenomenal but, even if he is, the Pacers still need Turner to win (or even dominate) his match-up. Work with me here.
Los Angeles Clippers – Chris Paul
With Paul in the lineup this season, the Clippers were 43-18 and one of the best teams in the NBA. To drill an additional layer down, Los Angeles sported an insane +14.9 net rating with Paul on the court in 61 games while that number skidded to a -5.3 net rating when he went to the bench. That is basically enough to justify this selection in and of itself but we should also mention that Paul continues to be an elite defender, passer, shooter and overall player at the age of 31.
Spare me the “never made the conference finals!” nonsense, at least for today.
Memphis Grizzlies – Marc Gasol
This is a legitimate coin flip between Gasol and Conley. In fact, an argument could be made that the Grizzlies are the most reliant team in the playoffs on a two-man nucleus. A quick look at the supporting cast from Memphis would lead you to shake your head in bewilderment at what the Grizzlies were actually able to do this season, even with some describing their performance as disappointing.
Gasol’s defense is the tiebreaker for me, though, and it plays even more against a team like San Antonio that swears by playing two big men the lion’s share of the time.
Milwaukee Bucks – Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Greek Freak is a one-man wrecking crew. Khris Middleton’s presence has been pivotal for Milwaukee on both ends, but the difference between Milwaukee having a real chance at an upset or potentially being swept away in four games lies with Antetokounmpo. If he is the stat-stuffing, offensively dominant player that he can be, the Bucks are a live underdog. If he flattens out in his first playoff exposure as the guy, Milwaukee is dead, even if it should be treated only as a blip in an otherwise promising career trajectory.
Oklahoma City Thunder – Russell Westbrook
This is the easiest pick on the board. Westbrook might not win MVP, but no one in the NBA carries the type of workload that he does on a nightly basis. Part of that, it must be said, is because Westbrook set it up that way, but the Thunder can only go as far as he leads them. That’s the set-up in Oklahoma City and they are going to live or die by it.
It helps that Westbrook is also pretty good at basketball.
Portland Trail Blazers – CJ McCollum
Portland isn’t going to beat Golden State. Sorry, Blazers fans. The underdogs do have a chance to compete, though, if things go very well in the backcourt. Damian Lillard is the obvious choice in this space and he must win an individual match-up with Steph Curry in order to provide Portland with a puncher’s chance.
With that said, it is McCollum that claims the “most important” tag. Lillard is much safer, if only because of deployment, but McCollum’s upside could help to flatten things out and he is a considerably better defender than his backcourt partner. It is hard to fathom a scenario in which Portland gets stops but, if they do, it will have more to do with McCollum than Lillard.
San Antonio Spurs – Kawhi Leonard
If Leonard isn’t the best defensive player in the game, he’s in the top five. For good measure, he is an absolute assassin offensively, to the point where San Antonio’s leading man is a legitimate candidate alongside Westbrook and Harden for all the marbles of the MVP award. That combination helps to form this (very) easy decision and the Spurs can only function as a legitimate challenger to Golden State if Leonard is operating at peak capacity. There are many question marks elsewhere, but he isn’t one of them.
Toronto Raptors – Kyle Lowry
I’ve seen enough. Lowry missed an extended period of time following the All-Star break and, thankfully for the sake of the Raptors, the team managed to stay afloat and more without him. With that said, Lowry returned to captain four straight wins at the end of the regular season and he looked good doing it. It could be argued that DeMar DeRozan was the more valuable player this season, if only for durability reasons.
Still, Lowry is the better player and he must overcome his recent playoff foibles if Toronto is going to make a legitimate run at the NBA Finals. The Raptors can’t reach their peak without Lowry. It’s as simple as that.
Utah Jazz – Rudy Gobert
If the Jazz are going make a deep run in the playoffs, it will likely be as a result of dominant defense. Enter one of the front-runners (alongside Draymond Green) for Defensive Player of the Year. Gobert has been utterly absurd when it comes to deterring the opposition around the rim and he has ascended into the slot as the No. 1 defensive center in the league. That is exclusive company given the presence of Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan and others, but Gobert earned it with this year’s performance.
The Jazz need Gordon Hayward to be great as well, but Gobert is the team’s best player and its most important piece.
Washington Wizards – John Wall
Wall has been very good for a long time but the 26-year-old just turned in the best campaign of his career. Wall posted career bests in PER (23.3), true shooting (54.2 percent), assists (10.7 per game), steals (a league-leading 2.1 per game) and scoring (23.1 points per game). For good measure, he did so while captaining a very good basketball team and Wall accomplished that while coming off major injury concerns from the previous summer.
In short, the Wizards go as John Wall goes. This wasn’t exactly a tough decision.
