Late in the fourth quarter of Game 2 between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat during the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Isaiah Hartenstein whipped into a screen for Jalen Brunson near the right wing. Hartenstein’s well-rooted pick isolated Gabe Vincent out of the play and left Caleb Martin scrambling to recover on Brunson, who saw vacant space, jump-stopped to collect himself and rattled home a 25-foot long ball over Martin’s desperate, flailing right arm.
The bucket gave the Knicks a 99-96 advantage, one they’d never relinquish after a 44-minute seesaw affair and enabled them to knot the second-round duel at 1-1. Despite Miami eventually dispatching New York 4-2, Brunson was the series’ best player. As the Knicks saw their season end in Game 6, Brunson was otherworldly with 41 points on 79 percent true shooting. Across those six outings, he averaged 31 points (63.2 percent true shooting), 6.3 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.0 steals. Four times, he scored at least 30 points, including 111 (37 per game) over the final three contests.
A metronome of consistency all regular season for his fifth-seeded club, Brunson remained as much in the playoffs and entrenched himself as a full-fledged star. In 11 postseason appearances, he never scored fewer than 20 points, dipped below 25 just four times and scored 27 or more six times. Not only did he establish a lofty ceiling with 30-point explosions, his basement provided a bankable floor as well, wrapping up his first playoff experience as the primary option with averages of 27.8 points, 5.6 assists, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.5 steals.
During the regular season, the Villanova product generated 33.9 points per 100 possessions on 59.7 percent true shooting (plus-1.6 relative true shooting). During the playoffs, he generated 36.1 points per 100 possessions on 58.9 percent true shooting (plus-2.3 relative true shooting). At 6’1, he’s proven himself among the rare crop of small guards who don’t see their flame dampened come the playoffs, notching considerable jumps in scoring output from his regular season numbers each of the past two seasons.
The keystone of Brunson’s scoring profile is his midrange comfort and effectiveness. His blend of strength, herky-jerky guile, and balance enable him to maneuver as he intends through the intermediate regions of the court. Star playoff guards must see the midrange as a viable area to operate. They don’t necessarily have to convert or attempt tons of shots there, but they must impose themselves as a threat to the defense and ride a gear between 60 and zero.
Jamal Murray thrived en route to a title partly because of this in the spring. Stephen Curry’s diversified himself the past half-decade by becoming a midrange maven. Damian Lillard, James Harden, and Trae Young’s playoff numbers have been a bit sporadic in part because they don’t necessarily consider themselves at home there. Brunson certainly is, however, adept with floaters, turnarounds, backdowns, and swift pull-ups. It’s a major component of his sustained postseason potency. He’s stable, sturdy, and multifaceted.
This year, he knocked down 53 percent of his midrange jumpers in the playoffs (81st percentile), and was especially prolific with his runner and other looks below the free-throw line (58 percent between 4 and 14 feet, 81st percentile). With the likes of Bam Adebayo, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen employing drop coverage or lurking off of Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson in the dunker spot, Brunson’s propensity to thrive in the paint beyond layups was a vital counter that mitigated a bit of New York’s spacing woes.
Contrast that to his teammate Julius Randle, who’s struggled in two playoff cameos with the Knicks, and their disparity in navigating crowds amid the paint is jarring. Brunson’s a master at playing slowly without coming to a full stop. Where he extinguishes his dribble is not where he must shoot from, hop-scotching and pivoting into openings around defenders for field goals within his wheelhouse. That trait serves him well.
Miami, though, sought to close down his space there, bringing aggressive nail help, toggling different assignments on him who could either approximate his muscle and/or overwhelm him with length and range. Whereas 57.3 percent of his field goals were from midrange in round one, only 47.2 percent were in round two.
Brunson’s response to that strategy indicates he has another caliber to reach in the coming seasons as he continues his prime, set to turn 27 at the end of next month. He absorbed the Heat’s decision in stride and still carved up their cohesive, malleable, boogeyman defense. Against Miami, 38.6 percent of his shots were threes (26.2 percent against the Cleveland Cavaliers) and he buried 34.7 percent of them, including 36.4 percent (12 of 33) off the bounce.
As the Heat shrunk his room to dance in the midrange, stationed help inside to clog driving lanes and ducked under or sagged off high ball screens, he increasingly pursued quick trigger triples, stepback bombs, and decisive moves, a contrast to his deliberate, interior-inclined ethos. While he didn’t yield quite the same long range volume against Cleveland, he nonetheless utilized similar counters and his midrange gravity to hunt quality shots that didn’t always necessitate peeking through the maze of swarming limbs.
Some of the stuff he tried was not regularly on display as recently as a year ago. The audacity for a guy who had more than 80 percent of his threes assisted his first four seasons is mesmerizing. This is real time adaptation and development.
Over his final two games of the playoffs, he hoisted 10 threes both times, a feat he only logged twice in the regular season, which happened to be his two highest-scoring games of the year (48 and 44 points). Prior to that, he’d done it once in his career, scoring 41 against the Utah Jazz in Game 2 of the first round while Luka Doncic was sidelined a year ago. So, Brunson has launched at least 10 threes in a game five times throughout his career and is averaging 42.4 points when he does. The 50 percent clip (26 of 52) is clearly an outlier propping up the scoring, but Brunson embracing the long ball surely seems like a beneficial shift.
Nearly 25 percent of his shots in the playoffs were pull-up threes and he buried 33 percent of them. During the regular season, 16.1 percent of his shots were pull-up threes and he buried 38 percent of them. Those are the two highest marks of his NBA career among five regular seasons and three postseason runs.
Prior to that, he’d never eclipsed 12.1 percent and that happened when he was logging 7.7 shots per game as a rookie. There feels like a pathway to quite the efficient scoring campaign, even better than 2022-23 (plus-1.6 percent relative true shooting, 26 percent of field goals assisted), if Brunson maintains his growth from deep and finds a middle ground between the efficiency of the regular season and the volume of the playoffs.
I also wonder if other well-suited defenses try to emulate Miami’s tactic. Bombard his midrange touches to exploit New York’s middling floor-spacing and Brunson’s undersized frame prohibiting him from populating specific passing windows that taller initiators can, namely lobs and cross-court skips. If that occurs, Brunson might have to again entertain expanding his three-point rate. It could be a moment when preparation meets opportunity.
The relationship of these roster limitations was evident in the second round. The Heat ignored various spot-up release valves, both because they didn’t invoke steady fear as shooters and because Brunson wasn’t always able to deliver reads at his size. This isn’t a criticism of his playoff showing so much as it’s something New York should price into its team building around him.
He is a very, very good player, but he is not perfect. And that is OK. Prioritizing a high-level passer as his co-star is a prudent, necessary complement. Brunson can assume the foremost scoring load, though his passing should not be relied upon as a primary option. Ensuring it won’t be moving forward as the Knicks aim to take further steps forward is vital.
There are a mere handful of point guards better molded for the playoffs than Brunson. He’s loudly declared that the past two years and his statement was particularly emphatic this season. His 2022-23 performance doesn’t have to be the precipice, though. There’s another level for him to ascend, a sentiment borne precisely from his radiant playoff exhibition. Those 11 games are his roadmap to the next level, one that could see a near-All-Star berth replaced by All-NBA nods and a rise further up the ranks of the league.
