Remember the halcyon days of NBA free agency back in the summer of 2016? Everybody and their brother landed a multi-year, eight-figure salary as the windfall of cash from the league’s enormous television contracts led to a historic spending spree the likes of which the NBA had never seen and will likely not see again anytime soon.
As early as last summer, the reality of some of those ill-begotten contracts started to set in (gobbled up cap space, luxury and repeater taxes, disappointing ROI, etc.), and teams were much more prudent in their approach. We’re seeing the effects spill over into the upcoming trade deadline as teams look to maneuver into better cap situations and that conservative streak figures to continue next summer. In fact, the pendulum might very well swing all the way in the opposite direction.
Though the coming free agent crop isn’t otherworldly, there are still plenty of quality players who will hit the market. But it seems increasingly likely that they’ll end up being disappointed to discover exactly what their earning potential is on a market that has seen what was once a giant pool of money dry up quickly.
Via Bobby Marks and Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com:
Right now, there are just seven teams expected to have significant cap space next summer. Last year, 10 teams had significant space. In 2016, more than 25 teams had at least $10 million in room. Some of the teams projected for room this summer, such as the Chicago Bulls, might sit out of the free-agent market and instead look for trades. The Bulls already demonstrated their intentions by taking on Omer Asik and the $19 million remaining on contract in return for getting a first-round pick from the New Orleans Pelicans.
Other teams with coming cap space who aren’t ready to contend immediately — like the Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns — may be more judicious with their money instead of making big offers to free agents like nearly every team was doing just two years ago. Instead, they may look for trade opportunities and it could depress the free-agent market further.
Indeed, there are huge names hitting the market in July with LeBron James, Chris Paul, Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins, etc. all up for new deals, but those players won’t likely be affected and will still command max money wherever they go. It’s the mid-level type players who capitalized on the economic boom two summers ago who will face a cooler climate. Players like Clint Capela, Marcus Smart, Will Barton, Avery Bradley, Jusuf Nurkic and many more that in 2016 may have caught huge deals will be fighting for a much smaller piece of the pie from a shorter list of teams capable of paying them.
In retrospect, the so-called “smoothing of the cap” idea that was floated when the money first started flowing in doesn’t seem like such a bad idea after all. Or, at the least, teams should have been a bit wiser with their money and foreseen the cap possibly leveling off in the near future.
(ESPN.com)
