The NBA season is right around the corner as training camp has begun around the league, and for all 30 teams, that means optimism abound. You can make a legitimate case that there are 26 teams that justifiably believe they can make the postseason this year, as the West is loaded from top to bottom with at least reasonable contenders and the East has a number of teams that hope to make the leap into playoff contention this season as well.
With the new play-in format, 20 of those squads will have actual chances to earn a spot. For the few teams that still seem pretty firmly outside of the playoff picture, their eyes are on the future, particularly with seeing what they have in terms of young players and hoping to see one or two emerge as possible cornerstone pieces to build around. With that in mind, we are going to take a look around the league, beginning with the East, at each team’s most important player this season.
This isn’t necessarily the best player (and often won’t be), because we typically know what to expect from each team’s best player. Instead, we want to look at those on the team with maybe a bit more variability in terms of outcomes, but if they are at the top of their potential, can really elevate their team to the heights they hope to reach this season.
Atlanta Hawks: Clint Capela
It has been easy to forget about Capela’s presence on this new-look Hawks team since he joined Atlanta at the deadline last year but has yet to step on the floor for the Hawks. With Trae Young firmly as the team’s star and their blockbuster moves this offseason in free agency, Capela has somewhat become the forgotten man. While Young has to continue to be brilliant as their best player, it’s Capela who they’re counting on to shore up their defense and anchor a unit that has been dreadful in recent years and needs to at least take a step towards mediocre or average to be the playoff contender they want to be. The depth behind Capela at center is fairly thin and quite young, with rookie Onyeka Okongwu and second-year man Bruno Fernando, and as such, they need Capela to log major minutes and serve as the rim protector to provide some cover when Atlanta runs out more offensive-minded backcourt and wing rotations.
Boston Celtics: Kemba Walker
The Celtics offseason was a mixed bag, as they didn’t make any big splashes but did add Tristan Thompson to help beef up their frontcourt rotation with a much-needed experienced presence. They also added Jeff Teague as their backup point guard, with the hope being that Teague in limited minutes as a backup can be a step up from the departing Brad Wanamaker. Jayson Tatum is firmly in the superstar category and Jaylen Brown is a tremendous two-way wing, but this was a team that, in the playoffs, wasn’t able to find the same offensive rhythm. A large part of that was Walker not being 100 percent.
That they still came just a game short of the Finals is a testament to how good this team is, but with other teams around them improving, they’ll need their star trio at their best. Walker is the biggest question mark of the three, as he continues to battle a knee injury that took him out of action after the All-Star break and he still hasn’t fully recovered from, as he had an injection in that left knee that will keep him out of action until at least January. Boston can weather the storm in the regular season without Walker for a bit, but they will need him at his best to have a shot at emerging from a pretty crowded top of the East this season.
Brooklyn Nets: Kevin Durant
In this case, the best player is the most important player, and the one with the most questions surrounding him. Durant is coming off of an Achilles injury that has been, historically, very difficult to come all the way back from. Offensively, I have fewer questions about his effectiveness than I think some do, because he’s the best shooting 7-footer in league history and even if he’s lost a bit of burst, he can get his shot off at pretty much any time. Defense, however, is where I’m most curious to see how he looks, because this Nets team is built to support him offensively, but desperately needs someone that can defend at a high level. Durant is one of a few on the roster with the track record of doing so.
That’s where his mobility, burst, and ability to change direction quickly will be most tested. If he can be even close to the pre-injury KD we saw dominate on the defensive end in Golden State, that’s huge for Brooklyn’s chances to contend for a title. His length on the wing and ability to alter and block shots often felt like an underrated quality because so much discussion about KD is his ability as a scorer. Brooklyn’s best players are offense-first guys, and they could really use his two-way abilities. If he’s lost a step there, they figure to be a rough defensive unit and that makes them much more beatable, even if offensively they are going to be a nightmare to deal with.
Chicago Bulls: Lauri Markkanen
The Bulls are a fascinating team this season because they have an actual NBA head coach now in Billy Donovan with a cast of young players that all seem to have some promise, but haven’t ever found a way to fit together. You could make an argument that Otto Porter Jr. is the answer here, as he’s in a contract year and the highest paid player on the team, but had his season derailed by injuries a year ago. However, I think the more interesting question for the new Bulls front office will be what to do with Lauri Markkanen, who is likewise going to be a free agent this summer (albeit a restricted one).
Markkanen popped as a sophomore, averaging 18.7 points and nine rebounds per game, but took a step back last year as he seemed to be lost in a strange frontcourt rotation and never quite found his same footing. This year, the hope in Chicago is that Donovan will deploy Markkanen better and be able to coax more out of the stretch big man who is more than capable as a three-point shooter. Finding out if he and Wendell Carter Jr. can make things work as a young frontcourt duo has to be at the top of the priority list for the Bulls given the way the clock is ticking on their rookie deals, and while the playoffs are certainly on the Bulls wishlist, the future and solving some of their roster questions are probably a bigger priority.
Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball
The Hornets drafted Ball third overall and suddenly have a bit of a logjam at the lead guard spot. Ball’s most effective as a facilitator and floor general, and Terry Rozier is making a lot of money, and Devonte’ Graham was Charlotte’s breakout player a year ago. Still, Ball has to be the focal point for the Hornets, even with the arrival of Gordon Hayward, and he should be given ample opportunity to grow and make mistakes (of which there will surely be many). The Hayward acquisition doesn’t necessarily muddy the opportunity for Ball directly, but it signals a desire to be back in the playoff hunt sooner than later. That might not align with Ball being handed the keys, and as such it’s going to be very interesting to see how the Hornets balance chasing a play-in spot with letting their precocious rookie star have ample minutes to establish himself in the league.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Darius Garland
The Cavs have seen Collin Sexton steadily improve over his two seasons in Cleveland and, obviously, they hope he continues that trend, but the bigger question is that of last year’s lottery selection, Darius Garland, who struggled as rookie point guards often do. The Cavs hoped to pair Garland and Sexton as their backcourt of the future, and there’s certainly time for them to figure things out. That said, as Sexton continues to emerge as the leading scorer on this Cavs team, how Garland fits into the puzzle becomes even more interesting to watch. The young guard is going to have to carve out his niche on this team and next to Sexton, and in the absence of a second-year leap, the Cavs will potentially begin looking in other directions. If he can make a jump, though, it sets Cleveland up very nicely going forward.
Detroit Pistons: Blake Griffin
The Pistons’ trajectory in the coming years is almost completely determined by Blake Griffin’s play this year, and what he looks like after missing most all of last year with continued knee issues. If he’s healthy and even close to approaching the player he was two seasons ago when he dragged them to the 8-seed, he can put Detroit firmly in the playoff conversation again, while also giving them a very interesting and valuable trade chip at the deadline should they choose to go further in a future-facing direction. If his knee problems persist, they exist in a strange purgatory between the worst teams in the league and playoff contenders, and, likely, would need to operate as I mentioned with Charlotte, which is to hand Killian Hayes the keys and see what the young man can do.
Indiana Pacers: Victor Oladipo
This was maybe the toughest choice to make, because this is a team with a lot of very interesting players that will need to make a statement this season. Domantas Sabonis emerged as an All-Star last year, and they’ll need him to regain that form coming off of a foot injury that took him out of the Bubble. Myles Turner is perpetually in trade rumors, but here he remains, trying to carve out a role alongside a frontcourt player he clearly doesn’t fit with. Malcolm Brogdon was terrific last year, but he and the Pacers hope to see better three-point shooting out of him after he slipped well off his efficiency he showed in Milwaukee. T.J. Warren was a Bubble superstar and his ability to carry that over into next season is a huge storyline for Indiana’s ability to hang onto their position as one of the East’s six best teams.
However, nothing in Indiana is as important as Victor Oladipo’s play for however long he remains in town. The former All-Star struggled after coming back from his ruptured quad tendon, and found out the hard way this offseason how the rest of the league views him when his trade request resulted in no market forming for his services as he enters a contract year. The Pacers and Oladipo might only have one more year together but his play will be critical in both his trajectory and that of the team. Losing an All-Star for nothing is a miserable proposition, which is why, beyond how it’d help them in their quest for another postseason berth, they need him to build a trade market for himself by proving he’s still a strong player so that they can at least try to fill that hole with some helpful role players or at least quality draft assets.
Miami Heat: Tyler Herro
There are known commodities in Miami, like Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Goran Dragic, but the trajectory of this team in 2021 will be defined by their young players and how much they get out of them. The Heat at best tread water this offseason with the departures of guys like Jae Crowder, Derrick Jones Jr., and Solomon Hill, replacing them with Avery Bradley and Moe Harkless. They tried to thread the needle of remaining competitive while not sacrificing their entire 2021 flexibility to make a splash signing — although Adebayo’s max extension makes things a bit trickier there — and did a pretty good job. But for a team coming off a Finals appearance, expectations are very high for the Heat and internal improvement is the only way to get there.
The player with the most pressure to take a leap forward is Tyler Herro, who was tremendous in the Bubble in their run to the Finals, but cooled off some against the Lakers. People are now very high on the second-year wing, despite him riding the typical regular season rollercoaster rookies do of having serious highs and also some serious struggles. The second-year leap for Herro would be huge for Miami, particularly in keeping up in the regular season with the best in the East. However, there’s a very real chance he’s still a similar player to who he was last year, which simply means when he isn’t exhibiting the hot hand, he’s not a guy you want to have to rely on. Figuring out consistency from night-to-night is going to be the challenge for Herro, and it can very well determine whether the Heat are real contenders in the East again this season.
Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Bucks went all-in this offseason on Jrue Holiday, dealing a treasure trove of picks as well as their starting and backup point guards for the veteran two-way star, and they are banking on him being able to bring a higher level of play to their backcourt come playoff time. However, it is the back-to-back MVP who has to be the one that figures out how to get this team over the hump come playoff time, and it comes down to being able to adapt his game.
There’s been so much focus on Antetokounmpo’s three-point shooting in recent years, but far more important is his ability to develop a midrange game, especially a short-to-medium midrange arsenal for when teams pack the paint and cut off the rim in the postseason. Antetokounmpo doesn’t need to become a lethal three-point shooter, but being more versatile while going to the rim with the ability to pull-up from the short midrange (and bumping up his free throw percentage where he so often lives) would have a far greater impact on how teams have to defend him. He certainly needs more help and Holiday figures to be a significant improvement in the playoffs over Eric Bledsoe, but make no mistake, everything in Milwaukee comes back to Giannis.
New York Knicks: R.J. Barrett
It was a struggle for Barrett last year and, to be honest, the team New York has built around him this year isn’t exactly tailored to maximize his talents, but the Knicks desperately need someone on this team to pop and show some hope for the future. The Knicks are firmly among the few teams that don’t have actual playoff hopes this season, and as such, success will be defined by their young players showing improvement and promise for the future. Mitchell Robinson has been the diamond in the rough for the Knicks, but they need one of their recent top-10 picks to pop and Barrett seems like the best hope for that — as well as the obvious hope of seeing positives from this year’s top pick, Obi Toppin. Again, the lack of shooters on the floor will make life a bit difficult for Barrett, who wants to barrel his way to the rim, but hopefully his second season will allow him to show a bit more comfort and see his efficiency take a leap forward.
Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz
Gone is D.J. Augustin, which means the Magic are fully turning to Markelle Fultz this season at point guard. Orlando still has playoff dreams, but with Jonathan Isaac out, one figures their defense will take a bit of a step back, although Steve Clifford always has his teams at a high level on that end. As such, they’ll need the offense to take a step forward to make up for some defensive slippage without their young star on that end, and Fultz figures to be the key to potentially unlocking more for the Orlando offense.
Fultz had a 2019-20, but figures to play more minutes and be even further involved in orchestrating the Magic’s offense. Clifford has raved about Fultz’s growth over the last year and has had positive things to say about his shooting mechanics starting to get back to where they were pre-shoulder injury. Anything you get from Fultz in that area is a bonus, but as he grew more comfortable last year, you could see the burst downhill that makes him so dangerous getting to the rim. The Magic are largely the same team they were last year, just without Isaac, and as such, internal development is needed to keep pace with other East teams that got better this offseason. Fultz represents the best chance for someone making a jump and it’d be terrific to see after all he’s been through early in his career.
Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons
The Sixers overhauled their roster this offseason, surrounding their two young stars with shooters like Danny Green and Seth Curry that should, in theory, fit much better than Josh Richardson and Al Horford. As a result, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are expected to have more space to operate and, the hope is, they can take a step forward to contend in the East. While Embiid is critical, I find Simmons to be the player with the most intrigue this season, and the one that can lift the Sixers to their fullest potential. We saw last playoffs where the ceiling is for this team with just Embiid, and with shooters abound now, the space for both he and Simmons to operate where they are at their best should be there.
Simmons’ shooting is always a topic of conversation, but much like Giannis, I think it’s more important for him to add some touch shots and counters from just outside of the restricted area than it is imperative that he become a three-point shooter. He is a force with the ball in his hands and his vision is spectacular, which will be highlighted with the players they’ve put around him now. He’ll have to deal with trade rumors as James Harden murmurs will persist until Houston makes a decision on moving their star, but the Sixers have finally built a team that makes some roster sense around their two stars and Simmons figures to be the one that benefits most from that.
Toronto Raptors: Pascal Siakam
If the Raptors are going to keep up with the rest of the top contenders in the East, Siakam is going to have find a way to shake off his playoff performance from a year ago. After a tremendous regular season, Siakam seemed to struggle with the increased attention he received as a primary option for Toronto in the playoffs. Given the loss of Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol — even though Aron Baynes and Alex Len are very solid pickups to bolster their frontcourt — getting production from Siakam to provide balance for their backcourt stars is going to be vital for Toronto’s chances come playoff time. I have few concerns about this team in the regular season, as they’ve still got plenty of depth, their leaders still in place, and a great coaching staff. However, everything at this point is about the postseason and trying to avoid a similar exit to last year, and Siakam will be the most important part of improving on last year’s efforts.
Boston sat on Siakam’s spin move on drives all series and he struggled to make the most of post-ups against shorter but stronger defenders. He’ll need to figure out where his spots are and how to get to them more efficiently this year to take that step forward as a primary option, but he’s shown the ability to grow each year and there’s no reason to think he won’t learn from his mistakes.
Washington Wizards: Russell Westbrook
The Wizards want to make the playoffs and need to make a statement to Bradley Beal that they are capable of building around him. It’s why they dealt John Wall and a pick to Houston for Russell Westbrook, and their new star point guard seems very happy to be in the nation’s capital. The Westbrook-Beal fit is an interesting one, but with the shooters they have (including Beal), there’s a pathway to a very good Russ season. That’s going to be needed, but I think the discourse around Westbrook has shifted too far towards questioning his efficacy as a player. Westbrook has always raised the floor of a team, and while you can certainly ask questions about whether he caps your ceiling at a certain level, the Wizards need a floor raiser right now. Russ is going to bring that, and while at this point he simply isn’t a shooter, the Wizards don’t need him to be. The question for Washington is going to be if they can do anything defensively, but on offense they figure to be a terror and Westbrook might see his perception among NBA fans shift dramatically because of it.
