Most NBA teams will reach the midway point of the season this week (if they haven’t already), which means it’s a good time to check in with the state of the league. The trade deadline looms in three weeks, and a number of teams that had lofty aspirations coming into the year find themselves further from contention than they hoped, while others are further along than expected. That can make for an interesting trade season, as there are plenty of teams with incentive to make some moves to try and cement their place as a playoff team this spring.
Here, we are going to break the league down into tiers, as we did before the season and after the first quarter of the year. Record, obviously, plays a big role, but we’re also taking into account recent form and the general vibes when placing teams into tiers — which is why you may see two teams with the same record in different tiers. There’s still plenty of time for teams to move up and down in the back half of the season, but at the midway point, here is how we see the league.
S-Tier: Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder
There’s a clear breakaway at the top of both conferences, as the Cavs and Thunder have established themselves as the class of the NBA this regular season. Over the last week and a half, they’ve split their head-to-head matchups, with the home team winning both times. With a six and seven-game lead, respectively, in their conferences, it’d be shocking if these aren’t the top seeds heading into the playoffs. What is particularly fascinating about these two teams breaking away from the pack is that neither have established postseason success, and will still have plenty to prove in April, May, and June.
A-Tier: Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets
For the first time all year, the Celtics slip out of the S-tier as they find themselves in a bit of a funk. They fought off a championship hangover admirably to start the season, but seem to be finding the midseason slog a bit tougher to get themselves up for every night. They’ll still be the favorites in the East come playoff time and know the formula for postseason success. The only other East team in this tier right now is New York, but they too are just treading water right now. Still, this team is capable of an offensive explosion on any given night and can beat any team, it’s just a matter of finding a bit more consistency.
In the West, despite the questions about depth, Denver continues to plot their course, led by Nikola Jokic making a push for a fourth MVP. However, they are the only team with a real playoff pedigree in the top half of the West standings, as everyone else (led by OKC) is an upstart group. Memphis has picked up where they left off two years ago, proving last year was a mirage, with Jaren Jackson Jr. buoying the Grizzlies on both ends of the floor no matter who is in the lineup around him and giving Ja Morant some additional time to try and get back into his old rhythm.
The most surprising team in this tier is Houston, as the Rockets have not slipped one bit after their strong start and only seem to be getting better. Alperen Sengun is having another good year and Jalen Green appears to be making a leap in real time, but it’s really their depth and defense that have them in second in the West. Amen Thompson has quickly become a favorite of everyone that tunes into the Rockets, and Ime Udoka has this defense humming, leaning on their length and athleticism to give opponents nightmares.
B-Tier: Milwaukee Bucks, LA Clippers, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, Sacramento Kings
The Bucks have a case for the A-tier and could very well get there by our next check-in, but right now it feels like there’s some separation between them and that next group at the top of the East. They’ve beaten up on lesser competition, as they should, but they’ve yet to really make their mark against the top of the league, which drops them to here — to be clear, they are the team I believe in the most in this tier. The rest of this group represents a case study in expectations and, admittedly, a bit of recency bias. As noted above, vibes play a role in my tiering and all of these teams look to be trending up, while the teams in the tier below have similar records but are just treading water or on the decline right now.
The Pacers recent hot streak has them suddenly looking like last year’s squad that could be a nuisance for the top teams in the East. The Kings, similarly, are red-hot after it looked like they might be on their way to blowing it all up when they fired Mike Brown, but they just keep winning under Doug Christie and look like they might be figuring it out. The Clippers continue exceeding expectations in the West and are absolutely bludgeoning teams at the bottom of the league, and with Kawhi Leonard back in the fold, look like a team that can stay in the mix for a guaranteed playoff spot. Then there are the Pistons, who have been the most pleasant surprise in the league outside of Houston, as Cade Cunningham has solidified himself as an All-Star, while the team around him is starting to put it together and are competitive every night.
C-Tier: LA Lakers, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves, San Antonio Spurs
Almost everyone in this tier feels like they should be doing better than they are. The Lakers have the best record of this group, but are just treading water over the last few weeks and still don’t feel like a legitimate threat in the West. The Magic fought through injuries valiantly to start the year, but they are really dragging their feet right now and the offense just looks like a chore, even with Paolo Banchero back, although hehasn’t yet looked like his old self. The Mavs are, unsurprisingly, not doing well without Luka Doncic and might have a couple more weeks without their star, while the Timberwolves have steadied the ship some but just cannot string together a real run of wins to make a real climb in the standings.
The Spurs and Hawks are the teams probably happiest in their positions. Atlanta’s just hanging around, hoping to get healthy soon to see if they can make a real push in the back half of the schedule. The Spurs have had their struggles with consistency, as happens with young teams, but Victor Wembanyama is everything they could’ve dreamed he would be and has them ahead of schedule.
Lost In The Jimmy Butler Zone: Miami Heat
The Heat occupy their own space as they fight a two-front battle right now. One is with the rest of the league, trying to hang around in the East Play-In and Playoff race. The other is with their star, who they suspended for requesting a trade and seem determined to make as uncomfortable as possible, while he looks to do the same to them. Perhaps there’s a resolution on the horizon after Butler met with owner Micky Arison, but things are just weird in Miami right now. The good news is Tyler Herro has finally made the leap the Heat hoped he could, it just happened to come in the strangest year possible.
D-Tier: Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Philadelphia 76ers, Chicago Bulls
Welcome to the wretched vibes tier. First we have a pair of West teams that are .500, which isn’t that bad, but they do not feel like they are .500 teams. The Warriors fan base is having a crisis of faith, not believing the team is earnestly trying to maximize the end of the Stephen Curry era. Curry himself recently asked them to chill out on the fake trades and let them figure things out, but that message will only be received if a big winning streak follows. The Suns are also a .500 team, but they just demoted their fourth-highest paid player to fourth-string center and are in a staring contest with Bradley Beal over his no-trade clause in their quest to acquire Jimmy Butler (which as of now seems like it will not happen).
The East teams in this tier are objectively worse on the floor but feel spiritually correct alongside these other squads. The Sixers are the NBA’s most disappointing team this year, and Joel Embiid has once again been out for more than a week with a somewhat mysterious injury that’s been billed as day-to-day. Paul George has been woefully inconsistent in his impact in the first year of his gigantic deal, and Tyrese Maxey has, understandably, struggled to maintain his previous scoring efficiency with a massive burden placed on his shoulders. The Bulls, meanwhile, are pretty much what we expected them to be, which is a mediocre to bad basketball team despite everyone thinking they should be embracing the tank. The best thing going for Chicago right now is that Zach LaVine is having a legitimately fantastic year and if he stays healthy all season producing like he is, they might be able to trade him for more than just a salary dump.
F-Tier: Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors, Brooklyn Nets, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, Portland Trail Blazers
Four of these teams were planning on being here, so, mission accomplished for the Hornets, Nets, Jazz, and Blazers. You did it, you’re in the hunt for the most ping pong balls possible. The Raptors were, I think, hoping to be a bit more competitive than they’ve been but also probably aren’t too bummed to be in the mix for Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper, even if they’ve been worse than intended. And then there’s the Pelicans, who have taken the Grizzlies spot from last year as the most cursed franchise in the league when it comes to injuries. They thought they’d be in the hunt for a playoff spot but are now just trying to field a functional team each night and have, once again, had to ask their presumptive star, Zion Williamson, to please show up to work on time and act like a professional.
Yikes Tier: Washington Wizards
The Wizards have won a few games since we last did this exercise, but those wins were over the Hornets (twice) and the Bulls, so Washington isn’t exactly a threat to anyone with a pulse. It’s really startling how bad they are, because they aren’t just losing every night but they do so by double digits most every game. If they don’t end up with one of the top-two picks in June, it’s certainly not going to be due to a lack of effort.
