Teams That Got Snubbed By The NCAA Tournament Committee

For the most part, the NCAA Tournament selection committee did a good job this year. Sure, there were a few things that it could have done better, but this year’s tournament looks like it will be fantastic on paper.

But still, there are a few things that just don’t look right. While the right teams mostly made it in, there were a handful squads that should have been seeded higher. For example, the No. 8 team in KenPom and the No. 20 team in the AP Poll is a 10-seed, which is insane.

We decided to look at some of the teams that were screwed over in some way by the selection committee. In no particular order, here are five teams that got the short end of the stick on Sunday afternoon.

Duke Misses Out on a 1-Seed

Duke should have been one of the four teams to be put on the No. 1 line. Instead, they were put in the same region as the No. 1 overall seed in Villanova. Ouch.

Gary Parrish of CBS Sports laid out the case for the ACC Tournament champs on Saturday night. It all comes down to a simple fact: no one had more good wins than Mike Krzyzewski’s group.

Two of those wins came over a No. 1 seed in North Carolina. This is especially true when you look at the paths both teams have ahead of them: the five highest-seeded teams in the Tar Heels’ region other than themselves are Kentucky, UCLA, Butler, and Minnesota. For the Blue Devils, it’s Villanova, Baylor, Florida, and Virginia. You’d be hard-pressed to find someone who thinks Duke has an easier path to the Final Four, even if Kentucky and UCLA are both awesome.

There are a few blemishes on the Blue Devils’ schedule, namely a loss to NC State in Durham (which, yikes), but when Duke has to play against good teams, most of the time, it wins. There’s also the fact that Duke won the best conference in America’s postseason tournament, and there may not be any team in the nation with more talent in its rotation than the Blue Devils.

If Duke doesn’t lose to the Wolfpack, and if its KenPom rating of 11th-best in the nation was a little higher, I have no doubt that we’re talking about Grayson Allen and co. as a 1-seed. But even though those things happened, no one has had more success against the best teams in the country than Duke, and the Blue Devils have looked great lately. They should have gotten a 1-seed, anyway.

Wichita State as a 10-Seed

According to KenPom, here are 10 teams that are not as good as Wichita State (for reference, the Shockers come in as the eighth-best team in the country by Pomeroy’s metrics):

1. No. 10 Kansas (1-seed)
2. No. 12 Duke (2-seed)
3. No. 13 Baylor (3-seed)
4. No. 16 Oregon (3-seed)
5. No. 18 UCLA (3-seed)
6. No. 20 Arizona (2-seed)
7. No. 26 Butler (4-seed)
8. No. 33 Minnesota (5-seed)
9. No. 45 Maryland (6-seed)
10. No. 52 VCU (10-seed)

The first nine teams illustrate the massive disconnect between KenPom and the committee when it comes to teams better than the Shockers. The Rams are viewed to be an equal to Wichita State, even though the Shockers are 44 spots higher than VCU. That last thing was reinforced when the committee released its list of all 68 teams and had Wichita State only two spots ahead of VCU.

Now, obviously, KenPom is not a be all to end all metric, but the Shockers are still better than a 10-seed. Gregg Marshall’s squad was almost certainly because its resume leaves something to be desired – it is 31st in RPI with a 3-4 record against teams in the RPI top-100. And by KenPom, the team’s schedule was No. 127 overall, which isn’t exactly blowing anyone away.

Wichita State is a classic case of a not great resume pulling down a really good team. Even if the committee didn’t want to put them too high, throwing the Shockers in as a 10-seed is absurd. If they can get by Dayton (which will be tough, because the Flyers are really good), Marshall’s team give Kentucky all that it can handle.

Illinois State Misses Out Completely

If you value RPI, you should be stunned that Illinois State is heading to the NIT.

Why? Well, three teams tied for No. 32 in the nation in RPI. Two of them – Maryland and Wisconsin – made the field of 68. One of them did not. That third team is Illinois State.

Since Dec. 23, Illinois State has beaten every team it played other than Wichita State, and even then, the Redbirds did win one of their three meetings against the Shockers. Dan Muller’s squad went 25-5 and tied for the Missouri Valley Conference regular season championship with a 17-1 record. They are legitimately a really good basketball team.

Of course, there are several things working against the Redbirds – they’re No. 51 in KenPom (this makes them the eighth-best team to miss out by Pomeroy’s metrics), and like Wichita State, the record against RPI top-100 teams leaves a lot to be desired, coming in at 2-4 against those teams.

On the whole, the 68-team field makes sense. But while a few teams have beef with not being included – Syracuse and its bevy of wins against RPI top-50 teams, for example – Illinois State may have the strongest case for inclusion.

The hardest part is picking which team they should have booted out of the field – VCU, Seton Hall, and USC were all below the Redbirds on KenPom. Maybe we should just expand the tournament and have 128 make it in … ok, fine, we won’t do that. It’d be fun, though!

Michigan Won the Big Ten, Is a 7-Seed

Michigan looked like one of the best teams in the country during the Big Ten Tournament, as it went from a team that had to play after their plane wreck to the champions of the conference. It is ranked No. 21 in KenPom and No. 30 in RPI. And yeah, the Big Ten is “down” this year, but it’s nowhere near as bad as some people think.

When it comes to the Wolverines, there are no egregiously bad losses on its schedule (by KenPom, its worst loss is probably a 16-point defeat on the road against Illinois). On the other hand, the Wolverines beat Marquette and SMU on back-to-back days by a combined 40 points on back-to-back days earlier this year. Their 7-8 record against the RPI top-50 is the same as Louisville’s record against the RPI top-50.

Louisville is a 2-seed. It may play Michigan in the Round of 32, because the Wolverines are a 7-seed. This does not make sense (and yes, I know that comparing teams by top-50 RPI records is completely arbitrary). With the Wolverines’ frighteningly efficient offense and with how Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin have played during the conference tourney, we may see John Beilein’s team in the second weekend of the Tournament. Then again, getting past Oklahoma State will be really tough, so who knows?

SMU’s Seed (6) Is Higher Than the Number of Games it Lost (4)

Since the start of December, SMU’s only loss came by two points on the road against Cincinnati. It has since gotten revenge for this loss – once in their gym by nine points, and then again on Sunday, when it won the AAC with a 15-point victory over the Bearcats.

This team is awesome. The Mustangs are a cerebral squad – its adjusted pace is 330th out of 351 teams in the country, but they are 11th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense. Playing them sucks, because not only are you going to lose, but also because they will do it in a way that is wholly unappealing.

The case against SMU includes a few things – the AAC was solid but not outstanding, it went 2-3 against the RPI top-50, and its rotation consists of basically six guys. On the other hand, SMU is No. 11 in KenPom and tied with UCLA for the 15th-best RPI in the country, so this is not a team to mess with. Also Semi Ojeleye is a bad, bad dude, the type of guy who can win games by himself – he was the AAC’s Player of the Year and averaged 22.3 points and 9 rebounds in three conference tourney games.

The Mustangs will play either Providence or USC in the first round. From there, the team’s path may be absolutely brutal – potentially Baylor in the Round of 32, Duke in the Sweet 16, and Villanova in the Elite 8. The road to the Final Four would be tough, but SMU is actually ranked one spot higher than the Blue Devils and two spots higher than the Bears in KenPom, so a potential showdown with the reigning national champions isn’t the craziest thing on earth.

Even if that doesn’t work out, SMU is better than a six seed. They’re going to give at least one higher-seeded team fits before the tournament ends.