Each week, Uproxx’s Awards Forecast offers an assessment of who/what will be nominated for Oscars come January, based on pundit chatter and pre-Oscar awards. (The pundit analysis is based on opinions put forward by leading Oscar trackers, including Kyle Buchanan of Vulture, the expert panel at Gold Derby, Indiewire‘s Peter Knegt, Awards Daily and Awards Circuit. Pre-Oscar awards consider recent nominations and/or winners announced by industry and critic organizations that annually recognize achievement in film.)
The massive critical and box-office success of The Force Awakens gave it pundit momentum over the holidays; it’s now appearing on numerous potential Best Picture lists, though no one seems confident enough in The Force — or more accurately, the Academy’s willingness to embrace it — to declare it a lock in that category. (The fact that it was omitted from the Producers Guild of America nominations, announced earlier this week, may throw more cold water on its perceived chances.) Ridley Scott, on the other hand, seems close to a lock, with most forecasters seeing a Best Director nod in his future; same goes for Michael Fassbender as Best Actor and Kate Winslet as Best Supporting Actress for Steve Jobs, which may not get much attention in other areas. (Absolutely no one is making room for that film in its Best Picture circle.) The Big Short’s SAG nominations — and its Golden Globe and PGA nods — have helped Christian Bale earn a seat at the Supporting Actor table. Some oddsmakers also have recently wondered whether Rooney Mara — being pushed by The Weinstein Company as a Supporting Actress contender for Carol — might land a lead nomination instead. Academy members can vote however they like, and there’s no question Mara is as much a lead as her co-star Cate Blanchett.
Straight Outta Compton was nominated by the Screen Actors Guild and the PGA, suggesting it has a good shot at an Academy Award nomination for Best Picture. It’s rare for a film to be nominated for both of those industry awards and be overlooked by Oscar, though it has happened before. (Look to Dreamgirls and Bridesmaids for two examples.) Meanwhile, the recently announced winners of the National Society of Film Critics’ top honors highlighted several Oscar-nod almost-certainties — Haynes as Best Director, Rampling as Best Actress, and Rylance as Best Supporting Actor — as well as work by two young actors (Jordan and Stewart) whose performances generated positive buzz that may (or may not) translate into statuette attention.
Over here in the “Anything can happen!” section of the awards forecast, Sicario could make a play for Best Picture, buoyed largely by its recent PGA nomination. Will Smith remains a wild card for his performance in Concussion, though his momentum seems to be waning, as does Jennifer Lawrence’s for her work in the halfheartedly received Joy. Enthusiasm for the audacious storytelling in The Big Short has prompted Indiewire and Awards Daily to suggest Adam McKay could sneak into the Best Director field. In other long-shot questions: Could Academy members recognize Alicia Vikander as Best Supporting Actress for Ex Machina instead of The Danish Girl, especially now that Ex Machina got the PGA nomination stamp of approval (and she was nominated for Golden Globes for both)? Probably not. But in the timeless words of David Wooderson: They’d be a lot cooler if they did.
