What’s the mantra when we get this far into the season and you’re basically guaranteed a playoff spot? Something on the order of, Now don’t screw it all up with asinine injuries. If some reasonable facsimile of that phrase isn’t being mumbled by every coordinator under his breath, he sure is thinking it repeatedly, like a depressing news ticker that cycles around without end: SPORTS IS A SERIES OF UNPREDICTABLE EVENTS YOU CANNOT CONTROL AND CAN NEVER HOPE TO CONQUER, MORE TONIGHT AT 11.
Because we now only have three more regular-season games to go, teams that have clinched a playoff spot or are almost assured of such a continuance are going into survival mode, especially after seeing the casualties racked up on Sunday. Some will get through largely unscathed after a week or two, while some have probably doomed their extended playoff prospects.
Let’s take a look at where they stack up based on what we know:
Andy Dalton (broken right thumb)
With the second-best point differential in the AFC, the Bengals (10-3) have beaten up on opponents all year long, but now Dalton is done for the regular season with a broken thumb on his throwing hand, and Marvin Lewis has no choice but to put A.J. McCarron (he of the four-career NFL games) in as the starter. There’s a chance Dalton comes back at some point in the playoffs, but it’s clear the league’s fourth-ranked scoring offense will take a serious hit. Few could now possibly expect the Bengals to emerge from an AFC playoffs that has the Patriots and Broncos seemingly on yet another collision course, even if they make the postseason for an impressive fifth-straight year.
That part, at least, seems like all but a guarantee. The good news for Cincinnati is that they could put a trained seal under center and still reasonably expect to beat both San Francisco and Baltimore, two of their three remaining opponents. (Denver in Week 16 would be a smidge tougher, because seals usually need a good month to learn complex NFL offenses and the Broncos have a smothering pass rush.) But drop either of those gimme match-ups, couple it with a Pittsburgh win over Denver this Sunday, and the AFC North gets a lot more interesting than it should.
Thomas Rawls (broken ankle)
The kind of football Seattle has been playing is really amazing to watch. Over the last three games — Sunday’s win over Baltimore included — the Seahawks have won by an aggregate score of 112-43. Russell Wilson has thrown 16 touchdown passes and no picks over his last four games. The defense gives us the third-fewest points and second-fewest yards. And the rushing attack is No. 1 overall — okay, see, that last stat is now a bit misleading because their two leading rushers are inactive. Marshawn Lynch is out after having sports hernia surgery and now Rawls, the rookie from Central Michigan who’d been spectacular racking up 830 yards in limited time, broke his ankle on a freak play and is out for the year. Wilson now stands as the team’s active rushing leader (456 yards), and the next on the depth chart is 34-yard-old Fred Jackson, who was pressed into action Sunday and gobbled up a whopping 15 yards on seven carries.
The Seahawks haven’t actually clinched a playoff spot yet, but they (along with the Vikings) are basically shoo-ins, each at 8-5 with two-game leads over any other NFC team. With such little time left in the season, Seattle will likely ride Wilson as far as he’ll go, which, I mean, based on the last month, seems like a relatively decent strategy. But it could only be a matter of time before opposing defenses get wise and marshal more energy into stopping him and just take their chances with whoever is in the backfield on that day. Rawls not only kept the offense balanced (thus making Wilson more dangerous), but gave head coach Pete Carroll an even more lethal rushing presence than when Lynch was healthy. That equation now changes in a way that ultimately lessens Seattle’s ability to score points, Wilson’s unconscious play of late notwithstanding.
Bené Benwikere (broken leg)
The Carolina Panthers are 13-0 and rolling through the NFC like something large and unstoppable rolls over much smaller things simply because they had the misfortune of being directly in their immediate path. But if the Panthers are looking ahead to January, they can’t like much of what they see when it comes to the state of their secondary.
Still hoping to get Charles Tillman (knee) back before the end of the regular season, the Panthers have now lost Benwikere for the rest of the season and could be looking at starting Teddy Williams at corner next week alongside Josh Norman. Ted Williams, you say? No, of course not, he’s been dead since 2002, please don’t be ridiculous. But one trait shared by the two Ted Williams is that neither played college football. True fact! That’s not a surprising tidbit for the late baseball Hall of Famer, but it’s more so for the still-alive cornerback who was a sprinter at UT-San Antonio and could be starting his first NFL game next week. Head coach Ron Rivera seems intent on not letting that happen, which is good because Williams’ playing would be a poor solution to stopping the New York Giants and their sixth-ranked passing offense next week, preserving a perfect season, and clinching the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC.
The Panthers were pretty lucky this was the extent of their major injuries on this day. Jonathan Stewart tweaked his foot, but he should be fine. Greg Olsen’s knee buckled, but he should be fine, too. Cam Newton even dinged his wrist hitting it on his own dang helmet, but he should be alright. Fortune is still smiling on the Panthers, but it’s maybe also giving them a little side-eye at the same time.
