The last bow that needs to be tied on this crazy European soccer season will resume this weekend. Beginning on Friday, the final few matches in the Champions League round of 16 will finish up. From there, an all-out race in a slightly-modified format will occur with the goal of identifying the best club team in all of Europe, which will culminate in an eight-team field taking to pitches across Portugal.
To get you prepared, we tossed together a quick primer on how Champions League will work this year, the clubs involved, how you can watch, and much more.
Wait there’s more soccer?
Hell yeah there is, and there’s a pretty good chance that we’re in store for the craziest two weeks that we’ve seen in some time thanks to this version of the Champions League.
Why’s that?
So the way Champions League knockout rounds usually work is that, during the season, clubs will play a two-legged tie with the aggregate score determining who moves on. That happened with four of the eight ties in the round of 16 (we’ll get to them momentarily). The other four, however, were slated to occur during the week in March that the entire sporting universe shut down due to COVID-19, and were indefinitely suspended — this, unfortunately (and unknowingly at the time), happened a little too late, and two of the CL tilts during the previous week were tied to coronavirus outbreaks.
Seems bad.
It was. Wear a mask.
So what’s happening now?
Well, UEFA decided to let domestic leagues finish up before having clubs focus on European competition. They’re all wrapped up, and now, UEFA tweaked how the tournament will work. The remaining four round of 16 ties will occur in home stadiums as planned, and the team that moves on from there will be determined by aggregate score. Then, the remaining eight clubs will head to Portugal for a single-elimination knockout tournament for the quarters, semis, and finals. One can argue this won’t necessarily mean that the best team remaining wins, because weird stuff happens in one soccer game, but it is going to be wild.
Oh interesting. What are the matches that need to be all sorted out?
The round of 16 match everyone will be tuned into is Manchester City against Real Madrid. Two of the 3-5 best sides on earth, City (the Premier League runners-up) beat Madrid (the champions of La Liga), 2-1, in Spain earlier this year. The first leg was tremendous, and Madrid has an uphill battle ahead of it.
That happens on Aug. 7, the same day as Lyon against Juventus. The French side defended its home turf with a 1-0 victory earlier this year, and now, things head to Turin. While Lyon is quite good, the Italian champions are still quite good, and as we’ve seen over and over, Cristiano Ronaldo is really good at finding ways to drag his sides to a win, particularly in the Champions League.
A day later, we have one tie that is basically done and dusted. Bayern Munich went to London and beat Chelsea, 3-0, and even if Christian Pulisic didn’t appear to seriously hurt his hamstring in Saturday’s FA Cup final, this would be a near-impossible task for the Blues to pull off against perhaps the best side in the world. Far more compelling is Napoli against Barcelona. The second leg is in Catalonia, and while the aggregate score is 1-1, and while Barcelona is better on paper, it’s been a weird year for them and they’ve just randomly had matches where they look wretched. They should go through, but a solid (albeit underperforming in their league) Napoli side will challenge them, particularly because they enter this match with a reduced squad. Then again, one of those players is Lionel Messi, who is the great player of all time.
How can I watch?
Well, you know how television companies are overreacting to cord cutting and making it so things are no longer on television? And instead you have to buy an app that is 30-90 seconds behind everything and it buffers all the time and it’s garbage?
Oh no…
CBS All Access! Every match is on the app, with select matches including the final being on the app and CBS Sports Network, which you know and love as the place that has Conference USA football games. Here’s the schedule (all times ET):
Friday, Aug. 7:
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid, 3 p.m. (CBSSN)
Juventus vs. Lyon, 3 p.m.
Saturday, Aug. 8:
Barcelona vs. Napoli, 3 p.m. (CBSSN)
Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea, 3 p.m.
What about beyond that?
Good news! Here’s that:
Wednesday, Aug. 12:
Atalanta vs. Paris Saint-Germain, 3 p.m.
Thursday, Aug. 13:
RB Leipzig vs. Atletico Madrid, 3 p.m.
Friday, Aug. 14:
Napoli/Barcelona vs. Chelsea/Bayern Munich, 3 p.m.
Saturday. Aug. 15:
Real Madrid/Manchester City vs. Lyon/Juventus, 3 p.m.
The semis take place on Aug. 18 and 19, both at 3 p.m., while the final is on Aug. 23. That, too, kicks at 3 p.m.
OK, so who did the teams already through beat?
Paris Saint-Germain knocked out Borussia Dortmund, Atalanta flew past Valencia, Atletico Madrid survived against Liverpool, and RB Leipzig knocked off Tottenham.
Wait Liverpool lost? Aren’t they super good?
They are! The Reds marched to the Premier League title, but they’re a great example of how fickle this tournament can be. They were better over 180 minutes than Atletico Madrid, but Atleti got an early goal in the first leg then clamped down. When things returned to Merseyside, Atleti keeper Jan Oblak was out of his mind — he saved nine of the 11 shots on goal he faced — and the Spanish side came out in extra time.
Under normal circumstances, the randomness of Champions League lends itself to stuff like this. Sometimes, better and more talented teams get tricky matchups, and total statistical outliers occur, and the worse team ends up scoring one more goal over 180 minutes. There are times when you just have to throw your hands up and acknowledge that you lost. That could, potentially, be magnified given how the amount of time for ties to resolve themselves are cut in half.
So does this mean the best team isn’t going to win?
It’s possible. Also impacting this is how the draw broke down. The one half of the Champions League bracket is, of course, packed with good teams, but the other half of the bracket is absolutely stacked.
🏆 Predict the #UCLfinal: ________ vs ________ 🏆 pic.twitter.com/wOTfQ6F4mU
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) July 10, 2020
With all due respect to Leipzig, Atleti, Atalanta, and PSG — all of whom are quite good and, in the case of the Parisians, are among the favorites to win this whole thing — the fact that only one of City, Madrid, Juve, Barca, or Bayern will make the final is totally wild. Anyone who tells you they know who is going to win is lying.
Ok so who’s going to win?
Why are you doing this to me we just went over this.
Well, you’re doing this to yourself, as I am merely a reflection of your internal dialogue as you map out the road that this post is going to take.
Good point.
Answer the question then your editor is getting annoyed.
Outside of Bayern, figuring out who is going to advance out of the remaining round of 16 ties is next to impossible. Sure, City and Lyon are ahead of Madrid and Juve, and Napoli-Barca is a draw (albeit one where Barcelona has an away goal), but everything is on the table in all three of those ties. The most likely scenario is probably something like this: City has built up enough of a cushion to survive Madrid, which will throw everything it can at their opponents’ leaky defense but could be quite vulnerable without their captain, Sergio Ramos, due to a red card suspension. A very good Juve side is able to battle back against Lyon, which has played one competitive match since March due to the pandemic. Messi drags Barcelona to a win in his own building. There is at least a 75 percent chance I go 0-for-3.
Want me to just go through the 12 teams left and say why all of them will win?
Sure whatever.
Alright!
Atalanta: Because the goals don’t dry up. Outside of Manchester City and Bayern Munich, no one in the major European leagues scores as frequently as the Italian side. They may be the best team to watch if you’re a neutral — Duvan Zapata, Luis Muriel, and Josip Ilicic score like madmen, and Papu Gomez sets the table for them as well as anyone in Europe.
Atletico Madrid: They clamp down on everyone. Few teams are better at defending as an 11-man unit, and when they are able to get an early goal, Atleti’s calling card for years has been the unparalleled ability to make games gross. You will not have fun watching if they win, but they might.
Bayern: They’re the most well-rounded team in the world. From back to front, there aren’t many weaknesses for the German champions. They have won every single match they’ve played dating back to December, sans for one draw against a very good RB Leipzig side, and looked unbeatable during Germany’s restart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO20mOdpYmk
Barcelona: They have the best player of all time. This Barcelona team is incredibly flawed, but in what amounts to a bunch of knockout games, having Lionel Messi is the ultimate trump card if everything else works out. Having Marc-Andre ter Stegen in goal helps a whole lot, too.
Chelsea: A miracle happens. They’re not coming back and beating Bayern. I’ll eat a flip flop if they do.
Juventus: They have the best big-game player in the world. There is a sense of inevitability when Cristiano Ronaldo is on the pitch, which will be the case in Champions League. Juve limped to the end of the season and struggled to score goals, and they haven’t always looked cohesive, but Ronaldo just has a way of winning big games.
Lyon: Their young legs outrun everyone. Like Chelsea, Lyon needs a lot to go right to get past the teams they’d need to beat. They do boast a ton of young talent — Moussa Dembele, Houssem Aouar, Bruno Guimaraes, etc. — and maybe all of them, along with the relatively young Memphis Depay, can pull off something special.
Manchester City: They finish their chances. City have two modes: Score five goals, or struggle to score one and whip in a bunch of aimless crosses. They are the most talented team on earth, and on their day, no one can beat them. But with a defense that can be leaky and a star-studded attack that can be wasteful, City are their own worst enemies at times.
Napoli: They catch better teams on bad days. Napoli is a solid side, and their center back pairing of Kalidou Koulibaly and Kostas Manolas is quite good on their best day. They’ve had some inconsistent play this year, their ability to create and finish chances isn’t always there, and their path to surviving their half of the bracket is insanely narrow. Apologies to the club from my ancestral homeland.
PSG: Kylian Mbappe gets healthy and they don’t do what they always do. The best young footballer in the world picked up a knock in PSG’s last match, he’s not expected to go against Atalanta, and it is unclear if he’ll be able to play after that. And then, there’s just the general propensity PSG has to crash and burn. They are the best side in their half of the bracket. They can win the whole thing if they play like it.
RB Leipzig: Chaos reigns. Leipzig are an intense, high-energy side that is capable of overwhelming opposing squads, especially when Timo Werner is able to get loose and be put in position to finish chances, which he does quite well. They can make some noise if — and this is a gigantic if — they can avoid shooting themselves in the foot.
Real Madrid: They follow the blueprint. Zinedine Zidane won three Champions Leagues in a row at the helm of Madrid from 2015-18. He, and his players, know what they need to do to win this competition, and it helps that they are brimming with confidence after chasing down Barcelona to win La Liga. They are an incredibly talented side, and if they can rally to beat Manchester City — a gigantic ask, especially without Ramos — they very well might be the favorites to win the whole thing.
So any of like seven or eight teams have a really good chance.
That’s right.
Seems fun!
It is! Champions League is my favorite club competition in the world. The level at which teams play and the intensity that they bring in this competition is second to none, something that should be magnified by this being a single-elimination tournament. I think you’ll enjoy it, and I highly recommend watching as much as you can.
