College football gambling is a fickle beast. As soon as you feel like you have a grasp on things, everything flips. Unfortunately for us, Week 3 went the wrong way to send us back to the drawing board after seemingly no one could get to the finish line under the total. That’s bad for business in this space where Unders are king, but we’re not wavering because, friends, Fall is here.
Yes, the air has gotten a bit more crisp this week around the country and as temperatures drop, winds are picking up. That’s just how we like it. This week, we’re looking at some big games, rivalry spots, and a couple flat out weather-related plays in hopes of clawing back to the right side of .500. First, as always, we take a look at last week and the season as a whole.
Last Week: 1-4
2021 Season: 7-8
Onward and upward. Come get these winners (lines via Caesars Sportsbook).
Notre Dame (+6.5) vs. Wisconsin (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
We go to Soldier Field in Chicago for a neutral site showdown this week where the world is expecting a slugfest (the total is a brisk 45) and in a game between two good teams that lean on defense, I’m more than happy to take the underdog catching nearly a touchdown in this spot. I think this is a field goal game on either side, as I don’t have much confidence in either passing attack and just find it hard to see what separates these two squads by much more than that.
SMU (+9.5) at TCU (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Rivalry game underdog. That’s the principle here as we go to the Iron Skillet Game, which isn’t a high profile rivalry game, but one that often delivers some drama and some fun. SMU had a wild ride last week, winning on a Hail Mary, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re involved in late drama again here. This is just too much candy to leave on the table in a rivalry spot.
San Jose State at Western Michigan UNDER 62 (Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET)
It’s gonna be windy across the state of Michigan on Saturday, so any of your directional Michigan schools provide a comfortable spot to take an Under. In this space, I’ll be heading to Kalamazoo for an interesting non-conference matchup between the Broncos and Spartans. San Jose State prefers to slow things down and grind it out, and I think this total is a touch high considering weather and that Western’s game with Pitt (which has been a big Over team so far) is inflating this number a tad.
Colorado State at Iowa UNDER 44 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Iowa’s defense is filthy. The main concern here is that the Hawkeyes might put points up with their defense, but I have no concerns about the Rams scoring too much in this one and, as we’ve seen this season, Iowa is more than happy to shorten a game and just sit on an opponent on their way to a win.
Kansas (+16) at Duke (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
I lost last week betting against Duke, but I am forced to go back to the well this week because we cannot allow this Duke team to be more than a two-touchdown favorite. Yes, it’s hideous to have Kansas. They are really bad, but this isn’t about the Jayhawks. I don’t think Duke is as good as the score last week indicated, as they jumped on Northwestern early and then were just able to hold on late. We’re playing the number and the Blue Devils and just hoping Kansas finds a way to keep this one close.
