Hello, friends. We have finally reached conference championship week, which signals the end of the regular season for all the non Army-Navy schools.
That also means a smaller slate of games, and, as such, a lighter betting card for the weekend. Still, there’s plenty of action to be had, including some leans on makeup games from various weather related cancellations earlier in the year. First, let’s look back at our first losing week in more than a month and check out where we stand for the season.
Last Week: 7-11
Full Season: 107-99-2
We need some winners to get profitable for the year, so let’s find some (as always, lines come via Westgate):
Utah (+5) vs. Washington (Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
I expect this to be a sparsely attended Pac-12 title game, as so many of them are now that they play at Levi’s Stadium, but I’m going to roll with the Utes as ‘dogs here. The Huskies are a miserable 2-8 this season against the spread as a favorite — Utah 1-1 ATS as a ‘dog — and I feel like the Utes have adjusted very well to losing their QB and RB to this point. The biggest reason I’m riding with Utah is their defense, which can take away the running game for Washington and force Jake Browning to make plays and win the game. I don’t trust Browning at all and think Utah wins this on the field, but I’ll happily take the candy.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian State UNDER 58 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
If this sounds familiar, it’s because we cashed the Under in this game in Boone earlier this season. We’re dipping back into the well here for a rainy, 47 degree day in Boone in a game featuring an Appy team that, when faced with better competition, tends to slow the game down and keep it low scoring.
East Carolina (+23) at NC State (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Wolfpack aren’t playing for bowl eligibility or anything, so I think they’ll just be happy to get on out with a win. ECU, meanwhile, just fired their coach this week and I’m hoping for that ol’ fired coaches bump. I have no idea if that’s coming, and there’s the distinct possibility this goes horribly wrong. Still, give me the Pirates against an ACC team all day.
Akron at South Carolina UNDER 56 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Like NC State, South Carolina’s already going bowling and I can’t imagine a lot of folks are thrilled about this game. It’ll be a sleepy atmosphere in Williams-Brice Stadium in the rain and I just think we’re destined for a 35-10 type score. No one really wants to play this game, so let’s get in, get out, and cash an Under in the process.
Middle Tennessee State (-1) vs. UAB (Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET)
These teams played last week and MTSU won 27-7. They’ll run it back in the same venue again this weekend and while I fully believe UAB will look better — they had no incentive to show the Blue Raiders anything last week — I fear the Blazers might have run out of gas a bit down the stretch of the season and the Raiders are just the better team, with an offense capable of separating from UAB.
Cal (+3) vs. Stanford (Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET)
I had Cal plus the points when this game got canceled for smoke, and nothing has changed my mind about this game. This means way more for Cal than Stanford, considering the Bears haven’t won this rivalry game in a decade. Give me the Golden Bears at home to get the job done and pull off the upset — but I’ll take the candy just in case.
Memphis (+140) vs. UCF (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
If you were able to get this at +9 or +7 when it opened at various spots, congrats on swiping insane value. It’s settled at +3 and I think the Tigers will get this done on the field, and am confident enough in that to take this on the money line. UCF is going to come out with tons of energy and emotion after the McKenzie Milton injury, but they’re just not close to the same explosive offense without him. It’s supposed to be windy in Orlando on Saturday afternoon, so I think the team that runs the ball best will win and Memphis just happens to have the nation’s second-leading rusher. The Tigers should’ve won their first matchup before the heavens opened up and soaked everything and they couldn’t hold onto the ball. I think they right that wrong here and hand UCF its first loss in two years.
Georgia (+12.5) vs. Alabama (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Alabama should win this game, but it’s preposterous that this Georgia team, on a neutral site (in Atlanta!), is getting nearly two touchdowns. This line should be like 7.5, so I’ll happily take 12.5. I do have concerns about the Dawgs’ pass rush, but I think they’ll push Bama. Also, they have the added benefit of being the only team in the country with experience facing Tua Tagovailoa in a game prior to facing them in 2018.
Fresno State (PK) at Boise State (Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET)
Oh, yes, I’m going to go down with the ship. For the third time this year I’m trying to take down Boise on the Smurf Turf after failing twice already with Utah State and Fresno. The Bulldogs should’ve won last time in Boise and this time I think they keep the pedal down and get this win and the Mountain West title on the field. Prayers are appreciated here.
MONEY LINE PARLAY OF THE WEEK
Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama, Appalachian State (-111)
The Super Tilt Play ended the year 5-2 after a horrid loss for our beloved Aggies in the final seconds in Boise. There are no late night games so this week, we’re going to hand out a Money Line Parlay for you to enjoy that pays out the same as a standard play at Westgate — that said, if you shop it you can get up to +105 on this at BetOnline. The biggest sweat figures to be Oklahoma. The ‘Eers and Tide should take care of business (and this serves as a minor hedge on Bama smoking the Dawgs) and I expect Ohio State to win comfortably as well. If you really want to add some juice to make this thing really pay, you could throw in Fresno, MTSU or Memphis, but I’m just riding those separately.
