Last week felt like it went way worse than it really did, mainly because when we lost we lost big, namely that Vanderbilt/Under parlay that was pretty much dead by the end of the first quarter and the heartbreaking Over in TCU-Oklahoma State when the Pokes were already dead on the side. Despite all of that, I still managed a 4-6 week, bringing the season total right back to .500.
Last Week: 4-6
Season Total: 16-16
It’s time to get ourselves to the right side of .500 and back to a profit this week and to do that I’ve got nine plays for you. We saw some teams take it on the chin last week to really good opponents and others beat up on some terrible teams (or simply escape a mediocre one). That seems to have messed with the oddsmakers and the public, and I think there’s some value to be exploited from overreactions to Week 4.
Vanderbilt (+9.5) at Florida
I bet most of you thought I’d take a week off from busting out the ‘Dores in the column again, but this spot is calling out to me. Vandy got their doors blown off at home against an angry Alabama team that played perfect football. Meanwhile, Florida rallied against Kentucky because the Wildcats quite literally put 10 men on the field and stopped covering a Gators’ wide receiver. Are you telling me this Florida team that should’ve lost to Kentucky and very well could’ve lost to the Vols is going to cover 9.5 points against a reasonably solid Vanderbilt team that just got as much motivation as it will need all season in the form of a stomping from Alabama? Give me that candy all day.
Vanderbilt at Florida UNDER 41.5
Not sure what the number would have to be here for me to consider taking the Over, but it sure as hell isn’t 41.5. Florida’s offense is still a disaster and Luke Del Rio does not solve their problems. Vanderbilt’s offense against K-State and Bama has looked rough, as well. I’m thinking this game’s somewhere in the 17-13 range. As always, we just need to avoid overtime.
Mississippi State (+9.5) at Auburn
It’s a big week for overreaction lines in the SEC. Georgia, the clear second best team in the SEC, beat the hell out of Mississippi State last week in the hedges. The Bulldogs from Starkville couldn’t do anything or stop anything Georgia wanted to do. Meanwhile, Auburn went out to Mizzou and destroyed the worst team in the SEC. Suddenly, this Auburn team that could barely score against Mercer looked like the 2013 squad that went to the national title game. Because of those two showings, the Tigers are now nearly double-digit favorites against the Bulldogs.
We’ve seen over the course of this season that beating up on Mizzou is meaningless. South Carolina did it. Purdue did it. Both of those teams lost by double-digits the next week. Auburn beating Mizzou doesn’t mean a thing other than they got some frustration out. We might’ve jumped the gun on MSU being the clear second best team in the SEC West, but they’re much closer to Auburn, even on the road, than a 9.5-point underdog. I’ll take this candy happily and learn to fade the team coming off of a Mizzou beatdown.
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UNDER 48.5
Eastern Michigan has gone six games dating back to last year since seeing an Over. The Eagles went to double overtime with Ohio last week and still managed to pull out the Under for us. Kentucky’s defense has looked strong to start the season and they could possibly roll up 31 in this game and still not sniff this total. Until proven otherwise, we stick with EMU and the Under.
South Florida (-23) at East Carolina
The Pirates went up to UConn and swiped a win on Sunday. Fun fact, ECU is 5-0 all-time on Sundays (this weird stat courtesy of my good friend Chip Patterson of CBS Sports). On Saturdays, however, the Pirates have been awful this season. USF seems to have figured things out of late, blowing the doors off Illinois and Temple in back-to-back weeks. They’ve also got two days extra rest on the Pirates, so I think this one will end up ugly, as so many ECU games this season have.
Akron (-2.5) at Bowling Green
This game is testing my principles, but if I don’t have principles then what am I as a man? We’re fading Bowling Green until proven wrong, and so far that hasn’t been the case (MTSU was a WINNER last week for us). Akron is not good, but all they have to be is slightly better than the Falcons and that’s not too difficult a task.
Charlotte at FIU (-11)
Speaking of principles, I got spooked off of fading Charlotte against Georgia State (my alma mater which is also very bad at football) and my beautiful Panthers beat the brakes off the 49ers to the tune of a 28-0 final. I’ll take the Panthers from south Florida to do the same this week even though they aren’t a great team either.
Georgia (-7.5) at Tennessee
This line is screaming at me to take the home dog in the Vols. This rivalry tends to get super weird and come down to the final possession, but I’m going against my natural desire to take home dogs and rolling with the road Dawgs this week. It’s time to accept Georgia as a damn good football team and the clear No. 2 in the SEC to Alabama. Tennessee struggled to beat UMass last week and I don’t see this offense doing much of anything against a straight up nasty Georgia defense. I’ll lay it with the Bulldogs and accept the consequences (which will most likely be lots of cash).
Ohio State at Rutgers UNDER 54
Rutgers and the Under has been money this season. Ohio State’s offense is weird in that it has players capable of big play touchdowns, which is terrifying for the Under, but J.T. Barrett simply hasn’t been producing consistent scoring drives against decent opposition. That could change this week, but Rutgers’ defense has been pretty stout to this point and that defensive line is quite solid. I’m not too worried about the Scarlet Knights scoring a ton, so if they can hold Ohio State under 40 here I like this Under a lot.
