We’re right around the halfway point of this college football season. This year has ruled, partly because there are so many things we don’t know for sure. I’ve decided to make a list of everything that college football fans agree on:
- Alabama, Ohio State or Michigan, and maybe Washington are going to make the Playoff.
- Along those lines, Clemson seemed like a Playoff lock coming into this year but there’s a chance it misses out.
- Tom Herman and P.J. Fleck are probably going to get paid whatever they want if they move to a Power 5 school after this year.
- Lamar Jackson is the Heisman frontrunner.
- Donnel Pumphrey is wonderful, although this is contingent on knowing who he is.
- Notre Dame is 2-5.
And that’s really it! So many other elements of college football are up in the air this year. Are Baylor and West Virginia really the two-best teams in the Big 12? If Clemson slips up, who is the fourth team in the Playoff? Could we see both Big Ten powers make it to the Playoff? Should Jackson fall off, who wins the Heisman and what do I need to do for it to be Washington’s Jake Browning? Can a Group of 5 team like Boise State, Western Michigan, or even Houston crash the Playoff?
Those are just the questions regarding the Playoff and the Heisman. We can do a deeper dive for so many other questions (Can Nebraska actually win the Big Ten? Which team from the ACC Coastal is going to separate from everyone else and win that division? How many quarterbacks can throw a football into the sun without dislocating their shoulder?), and that’s what makes this season so great. Usually by this time, we have a clear picture of everything, but outside of the inevitability of Alabama and Ohio State/Michigan, there is so much #NARRATIVE potential.
Wanna talk about some games? Let’s talk about some games.
The Early Slate
FRONT AND CENTER
Noon: NC State vs. Louisville, ABC
After starting the season by destroying four teams in a row, Louisville has looked kind of … mortal the last few weeks. The Cardinals’ last two games have been a six-point loss to Clemson and a 10-point win over Duke – the former isn’t too big of a surprise, but the latter is a 10-point win over the type of team that Lamar Jackson and Co. have housed all season.
In fairness, Clemson also had a down game last week against the team that Louisville is playing on Saturday: NC State, which looks like it may be pretty good. The Wolfpack have a few interesting pieces (QB Ryan Finley, RB Matthew Dayes, TE Jaylen Samuels, DEs Bradley Chubb and Darian Roseboro), but Dave Doeren’s side hasn’t gotten a huge win. They came close against Clemson, and their big victory was a slopfest in a hurricane over a 2-5 Notre Dame team that is 2-5. Notre Dame is 2-5, don’t ever forget that Notre Dame is 2-5. But yeah, NC State hasn’t beaten anyone really great.
Could Louisville be that team? Maybe last week’s close game against Duke was an aberration; it’s not crazy to think that the Cardinal are really good but were on an emotional low after losing to Clemson. Or maybe they just got off to a really hot start, the Tigers knocked them down a few pegs, and that’s where they’ll reside.
Or Lamar Jackson is the truth, he’s gonna eat against the Wolfpack, and every “Actually, Louisville May Not Be That Good” column is for naught. My gut feeling is something like this happens. I could be very wrong.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
Noon: Wisconsin vs. Iowa, ESPN
Noon: Indiana vs. Northwestern, Big Ten Network
The early slate isn’t too great, so why not watch two Big Ten games that have the potential to be solid, especially considering three of the four teams involved could end up challenging Nebraska for the right to get beaten down by Michigan or Ohio State in the conference title game? Wisconsin lost a heartbreaker to Ohio State last week and now has to go get punched in the mouth by a solid (but not undefeated!) Iowa team. Northwestern has played well ever since it lost, 9-7, to Illinois State in the second week of the season, even putting up 54 on Michigan State in a win last week. They host an Indiana team that may not be *quite* as good as we thought they were a month ago, but they’re still a very solid team.
Still, this is probably an early slate you can skip, especially because…
Dog Day Afternoon
FRONT AND CENTER
3:30 p.m.: Texas A&M vs. Alabama, CBS
…the afternoon slate is so, so good.
I do this weird thing every year where I convince myself that this is the year where Texas A&M’s talent all comes together and the Aggies run train on everyone. It hasn’t happened since 2012, so I decided to not do this in 2016 (instead, I joked that Kevin Sumlin would get fired and become the next head coach at his alma mater, Purdue). Of course, this ends up being the year where it all clicks, because goodness is this Aggies team fun.
We’ll refrain from writing about Alabama – it is a death machine that is going to win this (and every other game) by 50 points en route to a national title and Lane Kiffin becoming the next coach at Notre Dame, Hail Saban – and instead talk about A&M. Sumlin has gotten plenty of talent into this program through recruiting, but his most important player on offense has been Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight, who puts up alright numbers but is good at coming through when he has to. He, alongside freshman back Trayveon Williams and fellow Sooners transfer Keith Ford, have given the Aggies a good ground game, while the team is loaded with talent at wide receiver.
And on defense, the team has managed to be solid, mostly because it includes Myles Garrett. If your NFL team is bad, get to loving him, because he is probably going to be drafted in the Top 2 in the 2017 Draft. But even outside of Garrett, this defense has a bunch of dudes in the secondary who always seem to be around the ball (Justin Evans, Nick Harvey, Armani Watts, Donovan Wilson) to the point that the team’s DB havoc rate is fifth-best in America. And again, that aforementioned talent is all over the place on defense: the depth chart is littered with four and five-star recruits, which is especially scary because defensive coordinator John Chavis is a mad genius who is revered for molding talented young players into freaks of nature.
The point is I really like Texas A&M, and I think there is a good chance they make it to a New Year’s Six bowl. I don’t think they’ll beat Alabama, mostly because I have given up on picking teams to beat Alabama (save for maybe Ohio State or Michigan), but still, the Aggies are really good.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
3:30 p.m.: TCU vs. West Virginia, ABC/ESPN2
3:30 p.m.: Memphis vs. Navy, CBS Sports Network
The Mountaineers have been the single biggest surprise in all of college football this year. Coming into 2016, people were worried about whether Dana Holgorsen could save his job, but West Virginia is 5-0 and ranked 12th in the AP Poll. Of course, because Big 12, the schedule is backloaded, starting with a tough matchup against a solid TCU squad. The Mountaineers offense has been fun this year, per usual, while the defense has been surprisingly good considering the fact that a bunch of dudes graduated while its best player (safety Dravon Askew-Henry) was ruled out for the year before the season began. This is a good game to gauge whether Holgo’s squad is for real or if they’ve benefitted from a relatively easy schedule. Morgantown rules, so hopefully it’s the former.
Former Arizona State offensive coordinator Mike Norvell has done a fantastic job at Memphis, as the Tigers are one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country despite losing head coach Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech and QB Paxton Lynch to the Denver Broncos. And per usual, Navy is chugging along to a good year behind the brilliance of Ken Niumatalolo’s triple option attack. Most of your attention will be on A&M against Alabama, but this is a really good Group of 5 game that you should watch due to the high probability of something awesome happening.
Under the Lights
FRONT AND CENTER
6:00 p.m.: Arkansas vs. Auburn, ESPN
Gus Malzahn came into this season in a similar situation to Holgorsen: he needed to win some game or else he was losing his job. Currently, Auburn is 4-2 and the eighth-best team in the country per S&P+, and its two losses were to Clemson and Texas A&M by a combined 19 points, so he must be doing something right. The guy who led the Tigers to the national title game a few years back may be a good coach. Go figure.
Anyway, Auburn looks like it has a pair of keepers at running back in Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway. This isn’t too big of a shock, because Malzahn’s teams run the ball well and the Tigers are 28th nationally in rushing S&P+. But what is a surprise is how good Sean White has been under center – so good that Auburn’s passing game is ranked 11th in S&P+. White is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes on the year with a hair under 1,200 yards and six touchdowns to two interceptions.
We’ve written about Arkansas’ offense in the past – Austin Allen is so good at throwing the football, y’all – but it’s going to be in for a tough game against an Auburn defense that is 10th in defensive S&P+. The Tigers are really good against both the pass (ninth in defensive passing S&P+) and the run (15th in defensive rushing S&P+), so Allen and featured back Rawleigh Williams could be in for long days. Also: Carl Lawson is one of the scariest defensive linemen in America, and seeing as how Allen has been sacked 17 times this season, Lawson may eat on Saturday night.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
8:00 p.m.: Ohio State vs. Penn State, ABC
8:00 p.m.: Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech, Fox
Going to Penn State at night is tough for any team no matter how good the Nittany Lions are. But if there’s one team that won’t be rattled by a White Out in Beaver Stadium, it’s this Ohio State squad, which went into Norman and steamrolled Oklahoma earlier this season and took Wisconsin’s best punch in Camp Randall last week before leaving with an overtime win. Both of these teams are really good on the ground – Ohio State boasts the No. 2 offensive rushing S&P+ in the nation, while Penn State has Saquon Barkley, who is ridiculous – while J.T. Barrett has been solid throwing the ball and the Nittany Lions are ranked No. 2 in offensive passing S&P+. There may be a bunch of points. This one should be fun. (Of course, it’s also possible that the Buckeyes smother the Nittany Lions and move the ball at will and I feel dead inside from my seat high up in the north end zone, but I’d appreciate it if this didn’t happen.)
Oklahoma looks like it’s getting past the 1-2 start to the season and rounding into form as potentially the best team in the Big 12. While the Sooners will be without RB Samaje Perine, giving the ball to Joe Mixon is never a bad thing. Plus Baker Mayfield is still orchestrating the team’s offense, which he does better than anyone. Texas Tech could turn this into a shootout, even if there are some concerns about the health of Patrick Mahomes, so this will be a fun game to flip to every now and then.
The great thing is that, since Arkansas and Auburn will finish up around halftime of these two games, you can promote one of them to your big screen and follow the other. Thanks, whoever made Hogs v. Tigers a 6 p.m. kick!
The Late Show
FRONT AND CENTER
9:00 p.m.: Ole Miss vs. LSU, ESPN
We’ll kind of stretch the definition of a late game for this one, partly because the late night slate on Saturday isn’t too great and also because this game may end up being awesome.
LSU and Ole Miss are seventh and 10th in S&P+, respectively. The Tigers have gotten to this point behind a nasty defense, a ridiculous 1-2 punch at running back of Leonard Fournette (who has been banged up) and Derrius Guice (whose stock you should purchase immediately), and the steadiness that Purdue transfer Danny Ettling has provided at quarterback. Ole Miss has gotten to this point to behind an explosive offense, especially its passing game led by Chad Kelly and TE Evan Engram. S&P+ does disagree a bit with their records and standings in polls – Ole Miss is 3-3 and ranked 23rd, while LSU is 4-2 and ranked 25th.
The Tigers have looked great under interim head coach Ed Orgeron, while the Rebels have played well in basically every game but lost to Florida State, Alabama, and Arkansas. This is going to be a fun way to end your Saturday night, especially if Guice and Fournette can get going against a Rebels rushing defense that has struggled to stop the run in its three losses (the Seminoles ran for 161 yards and two scores, the Crimson Tide ran for 334 yards and three touchdowns, and the Razorbacks accrued 200 yards and a tuddy).
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
10:00 p.m.: Washington State vs. Arizona State, Pac-12 Network
Washington State has bounced back from an 0-2 start which featured a loss to Eastern Washington, while Arizona State has been a pleasant surprise this season at 5-2. Both teams are capable of putting up a lot of points in not a lot of time, and if this comes down to which team can make a defensive stop, the Cougars (66th in defensive S&P+) rate higher than the Sun Devils (104th). But Sun Devil Stadium is a tricky place to play. Regardless, this one could be fun.
