The Sunday after a top-5 team gets upset is always weird. There’s an expectation that said top-5 team will suffer some sort of precipitous drop in that week’s AP Poll, because they lost, so they don’t deserve to be ranked in the top-5.
That happened on Sunday when Ohio State fell from No. 2 to No. 6 in the poll after losing to Penn State. I would like to suggest something: when you put games into context, teams don’t necessarily deserve to fall after a loss.
Let’s take the Buckeyes, for example. They’re a young team that had to go on the road against two solid squads with notoriously tough places to play in back-to-back weeks. Both Wisconsin (two weeks ago) and Penn State (last week) were coming off of byes, giving them an extra week to prepare and gameplan for Urban Meyer’s squad. Both the Badgers and the Nittany Lions went out and executed said gameplans – it didn’t quite work out for Wisconsin, which lost 30-23 in overtime, but it did work out for Penn State, which won 24-21.
After losing to the Nittany Lions, Ohio State fell, because that’s how this is supposed to work. But really, when you look at that game, Penn State won despite getting out-gained by 137 yards and having only 13 first downs. It took a flukey (but, and this is my inner Penn State fan coming out, TOTALLY AWESOME IT RULED SO HARD) blocked field goal that got returned for a touchdown to win.
The Nittany Lions deserve credit for finding a way to win, absolutely, but after this game, the Buckeyes dropped four-spots in the poll and tumbled out of the top-5. That’s kind of nuts, because outside of Alabama, no team is more talented than the roster Meyer has managed to assemble. There were some people who had Ohio State out of the top-10 all together for this one, which is crazy.
Based on resume and talent, I think the Buckeyes are one of the five-best teams in America (it’s some combination of them, Michigan, Alabama, Washington, and Clemson). If you disagree, that’s fine, but after taking a step back and putting that game in perspective, I think you can absolutely make the case that Ohio State should be ranked no lower than fourth on that list.
This also brings up a pretty serious question, something I imagine some people struggle with: does an undefeated team deserved to be ranked above teams with losses because they’re undefeated? And to me, the answer is a resounding no. Football needs to be put in context, and when you look at the context of the one loss that a team like Ohio State, Louisville, or Texas A&M suffered this year, and when you look at their entire resumes, I think they are absolutely better than undefeated teams like Nebraska, Baylor, and West Virginia. We’ll throw Boise State into that mix, too, although this is more about Power 5 undefeated teams.
Losses happen. This isn’t the Premier League where every team plays every other team twice and we can declare a champion once we see everyone play everyone else (although every team playing 254 games would be amazing and horrible), so it’s important to see that, say, Louisville’s only loss was to Clemson in Death Valley, whereas the toughest team Baylor has played was Oklahoma State at home. Or Nebraska, which is a good team but its best win was beating Indiana by five in Bloomington.
Being undefeated is an accomplishment and teams should hang their hats on doing that, but it’s possible that a team that has lost at least once is better than a team with no losses. So please, AP voters, if you have, say, Nebraska over Louisville because the Huskers are undefeated and the Cardinals are not, do reconsider how both teams have gotten to that point.
Anyway, let’s talk about this week’s games.
The Early Slate
FRONT AND CENTER
Noon: Louisville vs. Virginia, ABC/ESPN2
You know how every few years, one player captivates college football in such a way that every one of their games becomes must-watch? Robert Griffin III, Johnny Manziel, dudes like that..
It’s not at all a stretch to say that Lamar Jackson is firmly in the same realm as those dudes. His worst game this season came in Louisville’s 24-14 win over Duke, a game in which he went for 325 yards of total offense and two touchdowns. Jackson has set the bar so high that a bad game for him is more than 300 yards and multiple scores. He is incredible.
No disrespect to either of the other games that are on the second screen, but Jackson is must-watch television whenever he’s on. He’s capable of doing stuff that no one else since…god, who was the last player capable of doing what we see out of Jackson? He’s great. Plus Louisville is an awesome team that is hell bent on beating opponents by 60+ to prove that they deserve to be a one-loss team in the Playoff.
On the other side, Virginia isn’t a great team, but it has a really good coach in Bronco Mendenhall who should be able to turn this program into a contender eventually. But the Cavaliers have lost to Richmond, Oregon, Pitt, and North Carolina this year by a combined score of 161-91. This defense needs some work, and when that’s the case, the last thing you want is to face the best quarterback in America.
This has the potential to be a blowout. Jackson in a blowout seems like a lot of fun. We know this because he’s done it all season, and whenever he gets going and Louisville wins by 40+, it’s unreal.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
Noon: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State, Fox
Noon: Michigan vs. Michigan State, ESPN
My love affair with West Virginia continues – if you don’t get it, go to Morgantown and eat at Tudor’s – as the Actually Pretty Good Mountaineers (their formal name now) travel to Stillwater to play a really tough Cowboys squad. The big matchup here is Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph against a really good West Virginia secondary. Skylar Howard and the Mountaineer offense can move the ball and put up some points against Okie State’s defense, so Rudolph is going to need to make things happen in the passing game early and often.
They say you should throw the records out in a rivalry game, but – and this is a hot take – I don’t think you should do that for Michigan vs. Michigan State. With Ohio State’s loss, Jim Harbaugh absolutely has his team thinking that the only thing that could stop them from making the Playoff is themselves. The Spartans are not a good team, and while I expect them to be amped up for this one, the Wolverine defense should smother an already not great Michigan State offense. Plus with how last year’s game ended, Harbaugh’s gonna be out for blood.
Dog Day Afternoon
FRONT AND CENTER
3:30 p.m.: Washington vs. Utah, FS1
3:30 p.m.: Baylor vs. Texas, ABC
You should watch Washington vs. Utah if only because the Huskies are in a really great position to make the Playoff and their best player, QB Jake Browning, is the best player in America not named Lamar Jackson.
The Huskies are so great – they move the ball effortlessly on offense, smother teams on defense – and yet still fly under the radar a little bit because they’re a west coast team. They’re the only squad in America not named “Alabama” ranked in the top-10 of offensive (fourth) and defensive (ninth) S&P+. And Browning (who is completing 68.6 percent of his passes and has a 13:1 TD:INT ratio) has a ton of weapons at his disposal, namely RB Myles Gaskin and the three-headed wide receiver monster of John Ross, Dante Pettis, and Chico McClatcher. Plus scoring on this defense is really, really tough – Arizona is the only squad to score more than 21 on Washington.
Utah will be an interesting matchup, because Rice-Eccles Stadium is a tough place to play and the Utes are a good team. Of course, Utah hasn’t faced anyone like Washington. If the Utes can run the ball (Joe Williams went for 332 yards and four touchdowns last week, plus they have a solid group of running backs) and keep Browning from throwing all over them (which is easier said than done because, well, Browning is fantastic).
We’ve written enough about Texas, but Baylor has managed to navigate a relatively easy first half of the season en route to a 6-0 record and a No. 8 ranking in the AP Poll. This isn’t too big of a surprise, because while Art Briles is gone, the Bears still have a ton of skill position talent and a defense that has been pretty solid so far, ranking 13th in S&P+.
Charlie Strong really, really, desperately needs a win. A lot of people, myself included, think he’s a good coach who would do a good job with time, but he’s not really afforded that luxury. Knocking off the No. 8 team in America would help, but considering how the Longhorn defense has been [scene not found] and Baylor’s offense has scored at least 35 in every game it’s played, that seems unlikely.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
3:30 p.m.: Texas Tech vs. TCU, ESPN2
3:30 p.m.: Northwestern vs. Ohio State, ESPN
So I was at the Penn State game last Saturday and missed all of Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma. The following morning, I rolled over in bed, grabbed my phone, looked at the scores I missed, and nearly fell out of bed because of how shocked I was at what the Red Raiders and the Sooners did.
Fifty-nine points in a loss! Patrick Mahomes went 52-for-88 with 734 yards and five touchdowns! We don’t deserve something as fun and chaotic as the Red Raiders, and this week, they go up against the No. 25 offense in America by S&P+. TCU and Texas Tech should be in for a shootout. It’s going to be delightful.
Speaking of the Penn State game, Ohio State! This game is on the watch guide because I fully expect a pissed off Buckeyes team to just obliterate a very solid Northwestern squad. Angry Urban Meyer is the most fun Urban Meyer, and the team is going to try and take every game as an opportunity to prove that they deserve to be a one-loss team in the Playoff. No disrespect to the Wildcats, which have turned their season around after season-opening losses to Western Michigan and Illinois State, but the Buckeyes could play the Patriots this week and I’d consider picking them.
Under the Lights
FRONT AND CENTER
8:00 p.m.: Clemson vs. Florida State, ABC
Lamar Jackson took some of the shine off of this game when he decided he was going to single-handedly knock Florida State out of the ACC title race, but this is still going to be awesome.
Why? Because there are a lot of people out there who aren’t all that impressed with Clemson. The Tigers can prove them wrong by going into Tallahassee and beating the ‘Noles. However, if these people are right, then the Tigers are going to lose and we’re suddenly very close to total chaos once the Playoff comes around. The door opens up for a one-loss team like Ohio State or Louisville (or even Clemson, I suppose) to sneak their way in over an undefeated Group of 5 team like Western Michigan or Boise State.
Clemson should be able to move the ball on Florida State’s defense, which means there’s a whole heck of a lot of pressure on Seminoles QB Deondre Francois to keep up with Deshaun Watson and co. Sure, the Tiger offense hasn’t been the well-oiled machine that it has the potential of being, but the Seminoles’ defense has seemed leaky at times and Watson is the kind of dude who saves his best for big games.
Francois and Dalvin Cook are going to need to do some serious work against S&P+’s second-best defense in America. In fairness, Florida State is eighth in offensive S&P+, so this isn’t a super daunting task, but Brent Venables is going to do everything he can to confuse Francois and force him into making bad decision with the football. I have full confidence that Jimbo Fisher will make sure Francois is prepared for anything, but once these teams take the field, all bets are kind of off.
This game will be fun. Doak Campbell Stadium is a tough place to play at night, Florida State is going to be up for this one, Clemson knows what is at stake if it loses, and both teams got a bye last week to prepare. Get ready for a war.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
7:00 p.m.: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin, ESPN
7:15 p.m.: Auburn vs. Ole Miss, SEC Network
Nebraska and Wisconsin are the two best teams in the Big Ten West. This should be a de facto division title game, but Wisconsin’s schedule is absurd and it has already picked up two losses on the year. The good news for the Badgers is that the Cornhuskers travel to Columbus next week, so if they win at home on Saturday night, odds are they’ll end up at the top of the division starting next week (this also assumes that Northwestern will lose to Ohio State). Watch for how the Huskers offense, which has been good this year, attacks Wisconsin’s defense in its first game since star linebacker Jack Cichy was ruled out for the year.
Auburn has been the biggest surprise in the SEC in 2016 (there’s a chance that the Iron Bowl is for a spot in the conference title game, which would be fun), while Ole Miss is the best four-loss team in the country (its schedule has been bruuuuuuutal). Part of me thinks that the Rebels will play lights out in front of their home crowd at night. The other part of me thinks this Auburn team is special, especially considering the only team to score more than 20 points on them was Texas A&M. If Clemson vs. Florida State isn’t fun, definitely throw this game on.
The Late Show
FRONT AND CENTER
11:00 p.m.: Stanford vs. Arizona, FS1
Hey Stanford, some of us thought you were going to win the Pac-12 and compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff and instead we’re all just sad and betrayed =/.
It’s really incredible what has happened to the Cardinal – the defense is fine (20th in S&P+), but the offense is a tire fire (107th in S&P+). This shouldn’t happen when your team has Christian McCaffrey on scholarship. Literally all you should have to do is go “here, Christian, do something,” give him the littlest bit of help, and he’ll go do something. Stanford has managed to saddle the dude who could have won the Heisman last year in one of the worst offenses in the country, which is incredible.
If there is reason for optimism, it’s that the Cardinal will turn to Keller Chryst at quarterback with the hopes of giving the offense a shot in the arm. Going to Arizona is tough, as Washington learned earlier this year, but the Wildcats don’t have a great defense and maybe – just maybe! – Stanford will be able to get going on offense.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
10:45 p.m.: Washington State vs. Oregon State, ESPN2
Oregon State is good at running the football (13th in offensive rushing S&P+) and stopping teams from throwing the football (12th in defensive passing S&P+). The Beavers are bad at stopping teams from running the football (119th in defensive rushing S&P+) and throwing the football (124th in offensive passing S&P+).
Basically, this is a weird matchup for the Cougars, which have been alright on defense this year (at least by their standards – 65th in defensive S&P+) and do most of their damage through the air. The good news is that Washington State has an ok running game, so it could put up some points, but this game has a little chaos potential. Not much, but a little.
