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Who To Start, Sit, And Not Sleep On For Your Week 1 Fantasy Lineup


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Fall is coming, and with it, another fantasy football season. It’s Week 1, and unless you did something really weird in your draft, your fantasy football hopes and dreams are out in front of your with championship runs dancing through your brain. So now you just gotta get off on the right foot. A Week 1 win will send a message to your league that you are for real, and not to be trifled with. And if you need to do some roster refining in the final days before the season officially kicks off with a Thursday Night game between the Chiefs and the Patriots, we’ve got your must-starts and must-sits covered in the wildest week of all — Week 1.

It’s back. Fantasy football is finally back. Let’s do this.

Start of the Week

Jacquizz Rodgers: The Zero Running Back Strategy was a good way to go this year, and if you waited, you were probably able to get Jacquizz for a late-round pick or a dollar or two in your auction. He’s stepping in for the suspended Doug Martin over the next month, and even with Charles Sims catching Jameis Winston’s passes out of the backfield, Rodgers should get a ton of work. In a three-game stretch last year when Quizz took over for Martin, he had a heavy workload: 37 touches, 27 touches, and 20 touches. Then, the Bucs fed him again at the end of December when Martin wasn’t on the field. His massive touch share wasn’t a one-time thing. The Bucs trust Quizz, and he’s going to gobble up points against a mediocre Miami rushing D. He’s currently projected to be the highest scoring non-quarterback in Yahoo’s rankings, just above Le’Veon Bell. That’s wild.

Start/Sit

QUARTERBACK STARTS

Matt Ryan: I saw Ryan fall in multiple drafts, maybe due to his offensive coordinator change, but besides that, Ryan should be ready to continue his 2016 MVP season by scoring at least two touchdowns on the Bears. Yes, the Bears have a solid front seven (and Chicago sports radio will not let you forget that), but they can and will be scored on. And let’s not forget that this wasn’t just a one and done showing for Matty Ice. Ryan’s been damn solid in real football for multiple years running, he just needs to show that he can score consistently in a fantasy setting. He should Week 1.

https://twitter.com/DeeepThreat/status/904860007598084096

Besides, you have to think the Falcons are going to take out the Super Bowl loss on whoever they face first anyway, right?

Ben Roethlisberger: The Steelers are at Cleveland Week 1, which means points for Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Martavius Bryant, maybe someone random like Darrius Heyward-Bey, and most of all — Big Ben. The Steelers have only lost to Cleveland once in the last ten or so years, and that was without Ben under center, so we should sit back and enjoy the fantasy points buffet that comes from a Joe Haden-less Browns D. It will be delicious. It’ll also be fun to see Joe Haden cover Kenny Britt (???) and Sammie Coates trying to stick it to his old team, the Steelers. There’s a lot of that Old Team vs. New Team drama this week (see: Peterson, Adrian).

Jameis Winston: You know you want to start him after watching him on Hard Knocks, now he faces a Miami defense that gave up the fourth-most points to quarterbacks last season. That’s nice when Winston is throwing to Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. Interesting fact: the Dolphins gave up the second-most rushing yards to QBs last year. Additional interesting fact: Jameis can run the ball. He wants to deliver points to your squad. Let him.

Now here’s a weird thing:

QUARTERBACK SITS

Dak Prescott: He might’ve had a phenomenal rookie season in real NFL terms, and he possibly even won you a few games in fantasy, but unless you’re desperate in a 12-team league or larger, try to stay away from Mr. Prescott’s first game against the Giants was his rookie debut, when he passed for 225 yards and nothing else. In his December visit to Met Life Stadium, he passed for 165 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. He was sacked three times. In fact, Dak averaged 4 YPP against the Giants last year, and that was with Zeke Elliott setting up the play action. Now the Giants have a chip on their shoulder and Prescott could be stepping into a sophomore slump year. Unless he’s one of the best ever. Is that possible?

Cam Newton:He could be the Cam of old for all we know, and he’s got a skinny Kelvin Benjamin along with Christian McCaffery as the lightning to Jonathan Stewart’s thunder, but with only two passes thrown this preseason, it might be best to sit and wait to see what Newton looks like. You can’t depend on his rushing points anymore, and Cam lowering his shoulder and slamming into the end zone could be a thing of the past, so play Carson Palmer, or Big Ben, or someone else you’re likely pairing Cam with since he fell so far in drafts.

There’s a great chance Cam bounces back and looks like the Cam of old, but until you know what you’re getting, why not wait? Here’s some upside, though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUE6E7kzvLE

Matthew Stafford:The most expensive player in the NFL may be at home against a Cardinals team that traditionally doesn’t travel well, but the Cardinals have an excellent secondary and considering the disappointing way 2016 started for Golden Tate (and to a lesser extent Marvin Jones) last year, it may be best to see what Jim Bob Cooter has up his sleeve for what was probably the tenth or twelfth quarterback off your draft board. His preseason wasn’t so thrilling that you need to start him Week 1, ya know?

WIDE RECEIVER STARTS

Larry Fitzgerald: Fitz may be getting up there in years but he starts fast (top five in the first six weeks of the last two seasons) and he’s still the security blanket for an even older Carson Palmer. While the rest of the Cardinals receiving corps shakes out (John Brown please step up (or JJ Nelson, whatever)), you know David Johnson and Larry Fitz are going to get short-yardage gains all day. They will add up into a nice little day for the cornerstones of the Cardinals offense. Best yet, the Lions give up a ton of points to slot receivers, where ol’ Fitzy shines.

Martavis Bryant:Fresh off a yearlong suspension and ready to beat up the Browns is Martavius Bryant, who, when on the field (only 24 games played in three years), has averaged over 12 PPG in PPR leagues. He’s fully embedded into the Steelers offense now, with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown demanding coverage, this means Bryant is going to be wide open. Pick your poison, opposing defenses.

And a note specifically geared towards Daily Fantasy players: Bryant is the 18th-most expensive WR on Draft Kings, going for $6,000. He’s a perfect WR2 to pick up on a budget.

Tyreek Hill:Jeremy Maclin is gone, now Tyreek Hill joins Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt as THE playmaker downfield for the Chiefs. Well, maybe not downfield. It’s hard to say with Alex Smith, but Hill can score from just about anywhere and that’s why we love him. It’s work noting that an inevitable regression is sure to come from Hill’s special season last year, but with opportunities, come fantasy points, and Hill should be seeing plenty of opportunities now that he’s the man in the offense.

In case you need a reminder:

WIDE RECEIVER SITS

T.Y. Hilton: With no Andrew Luck for Week 1, and no Andrew Luck all offseason, T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief will have to depend on Scott Tolzien. Luckily, the Rams aren’t world beaters, but the Colts on the road without Luck and with more than one mouth to feed means regression for Hilton. It would be tough to top is 1400+ yards from 2016 as it is, but with Jack Doyle looking for targets at TE and what should be a run-heavy game plan coming to chew up the clock, this could be a rough day for owners who expected Hilton’s high ADP to pay off.

Keenan Allen: If Keenan Allen comes back as Keenan Allen from a torn ACL, he should be one of the best picks of your draft, but in Week 1, he has the Broncos and their fearsome secondary in Denver. It’s not wise to play with fire against that team, especially when their pass rush is still horrifying and the Chargers did little to bolster their offensive line this past offseason. The Chargers will get theirs, but don’t play against Broncos, the best pass D in the league. That’s how the old saying goes, right?

Sammy Watkins:He’s a hell of a talent and will absolutely make a difference in LA, but do we really know how the oft-injured speedster will play with Jared Goff? Right now, it seems like Watkins is just helping Todd Gurley not go against eight dudes in the box. Until we know otherwise, there can be other players to start over Watkins in Week 1. The Colts will be without Vontae Davis this week, but it’s hard to predict what we’re going to get from Watkins beyond a WR3 upside.

RUNNING BACK STARTS

Kareem Hunt: In a draft full of game-changing rookie RBs, Spencer Ware’s injury could leave Kareem Hunt as the game changing-ist. Andy Reid has never met a running back he couldn’t get production out of, and Hunt is a bell-cow in the making. Reid said Hunt would be his featured back, and per Pro Football Focus, over the last 13 years, Reid’s feature back has averaged a hair under 21 touches a game. Considering Hunt’s cost in Daily Fantasy and his low ADP, he should do extremely well for Zero RB managers and savvy owners who will throw him in a FLEX spot. New England was a top-5 rushing D last year, but Hunt will get his.

Let’s look at some tape:

LeSean McCoy: There’s probably no week to be higher on McCoy than Week 1 thanks to the Bills desperately needing a difference maker on offense. They’ll dump all the touches on McCoy who was one of the best backs last season and still has something left in the tank. That said, I’d rather depend on him now before he potentially slows down at the end of the year with nearly 2,300 career touches. Additionally, the rumors of a McCoy trade aren’t going away, so you the Bills showcasing McCoy could be a thing.

The Panthers RBs: If you’re in a PPR league, it’s impossible not to lust after the points Christian McCaffery will give you, but Jonathan Stewart is being overlooked in just about every draft. He’s still going to get the Lion’s share of carries, and he’ll probably share the field with McCaffery who is expected to line up all over the field. With Newton likely to settle down with his red zone rushing attempts, it’ll be a more traditional role for J-Stew who still has a lot to offer fantasy owners. Especially at his price.

Does this guy look done to you?

The fact that he’s going up against the Niners run D (worst in the league last year) should make you drool.

RUNNING BACK SITS

Adrian Peterson: The storyline is set for AP to stick it to his old team, but the medium-powered rushing defense of the Vikings combined with the fact that Peterson has seen a significant decline in his output over the last two seasons (when he’s on the field), should lead you to believe that Peterson will get a moderate amount of touches and possibly not do much with them. Sean Payton and the Saints have sung Peterson’s praises this offseason, but do you want to depend on bizarro 2017 Adrian Peterson, AKA an old and beat up Deuce McCallister? Let this week shake out, and if AP feels good, go for him then.

Marshawn Lynch:Much like the Adrian Peterson situation in New Orleans, you have an old great on a team with many other options and realistically, we don’t know what’s going to come of it. Could Lynch score three times in the red zone on Sunday? Yes, yes he could. He could also touch the ball seven times as Oakland keeps him fresh for another run at the playoffs, and with our own run at fantasy immortality on the line, it’s tough to head into Week 1 without a sure-thing.

Meanwhile, this question is still out there, ready to be answered (hot take: Peter Carroll is David Lynch):

Bilal Powell:I’m all-in on the Powell hype train heading into the season, but not Week 1. The Jets are moving towards full-on tank-mode and could give Matt Forte a ton of touches in order to showcase him before a trade. The rumors surrounding the Jets moving the old, but still dependable Forte haven’t let up, so it’s hard to depend on Powell who showed off his dazzling playmaking abilities (against the second and third teams) this preseason. His time will come, but when? When will we see this and jump for joy in our PPR leagues?

TIGHT END STARTS

Greg Olsen: Despite me saying you should bench Cam, you should start Greg Olsen. He’s Cam’s Mr. Reliable, and a seemingly renewed and refreshed Kelvin Benjamin should keep defenses honest. The Panthers are facing San Francisco whose linebacking corps is a shadow of its former self, which should lead to a good amount of points for Olsen. He might even score a touchdown. I mean, this guy gets it:

https://twitter.com/HarryCFC_/status/895469335711432704

Kyle Rudolph: The Ertzs and the Eiferts of the fantasy tight end landscape are way sexier than Kyle Rudolph with his underappreciated Sam Bradford, but the Saints are a middle of the road defense against the tight end, and Kyle Rudolph did end up as last year’s number two overall TE. Did you know that? Can you believe it? It’s true. That’s how underappreciated Rudolph is (or that’s how weak 2016 was for fantasy TEs). In addition to his overall greatness last season, Bradford trusts him. Rudolph had 22 percent target share over the entire 2016 campaign.

Zach Ertz:After a few seasons of cruel teasing, it seems as if this fantasy darling has finally found a guy who will force-feed him the rock in Carson Wentz. They continued their love affair this preseason with multiple big plays, now owners can only hope the Ertz-Wentz double-Z connection can continue to thrive in PPR and standard leagues. Roll him out with confidence Week 1.

TIGHT END SITS

Hunter Henry:Yes, this is his job now, but the Chargers still want to get Antonio Gates the TD record and they’re playing Denver. The Broncos aren’t completely lights out against the TE, but with a healthy Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and the impressive-but-needs-a-lot-of-touches-to-get-going Melvin Gordon all active and ready Week 1, it’s hard to rely on Henry. Last season, Henry only saw 53.8 percent of snaps, and that number should go up this year, but you’re not rolling out there with Henry as your starting TE yet, are you? You shouldn’t.

Martellus Bennett: Much ado has been made about Bennett’s return to the NFC North, but he could be the fifth option (or the sixth if you count Aaron Rodgers’ legs) in Green Bay. On top of that, Rodgers rarely delivers the ball to his tight end enough to make them a bonafide fantasy threat. And with Lance Kendricks still on the team, what kind of sets will they be running? Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are still there, and we know teams love Bennett’s ability to block, so will he have a consistent role? We just don’t know.

That said, you should pick Bennett just because he stays in shape with Quidditch. Props to the Wizarding World of Martellus Bennett.

https://twitter.com/MartysaurusRex/status/903688312124256256

Austin Hooper: The Falcons embraced their Jacob Tamme replacement and even leaned on him in their doomed Super Bowl outing, but Hooper’s targets aren’t consistent even if the job is now solely his. Ryan has Julio Jones, Mohamad Sanu, the exciting Taylor Gabriel and his two RBs — Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman — to throw to. Where will Hooper reliably get his? Get him on your team because he could develop into a solid play, but it’s Week 1. Months of research is about to be thrown out the window. Mitigate all risk!

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