What a clear delineation for the Green Bay Packers this season. Before the Week 7 bye, Aaron Rodgers & Co. were a cool 6-0. They’d weathered whatever troubles they could’ve expected from losing Pro Bowl wide receiver Jordy Nelson in the preseason. They were averaging 127 rushing yards a game. Olivia Munn wasn’t persona non grata in the state of Wisconsin. Times were simpler and happier amidst the cheeseheads.
Since then, though, it’s been all downhill. They’re a lucky Hail Mary touchdown catch away from being 1-5 since that break. They’re only averaging 96 yards rushing a game over that span. Rodgers has looked more frustrated and helpless than at any almost stretch in his career, and the Packers simply aren’t playing a very Packers kind of football. The defense is giving up yards that the offense simply can’t match on its end, and the result is a very disjointed and unpredictable squad. If not for the shocking victory last Thursday, Green Bay would be 7-5 overall, a game back of Minnesota in the NFC North, and sleeping Packers fans would be awaking in cold sweats every few hours.
So, here’s the good news: Green Bay, at 8-4, is almost assuredly going to the playoffs. Either the Packers or the Vikings will win the division, but the runner-up is nearly guaranteed one of the NFC Wild Card spots. Sure, playing on the road in the playoffs is downright anathema to the Packers’ ethos, but it’s better than golfing in January. (Especially in Wisconsin!) And Football Outsiders now has the Packers at 88 percent to make the playoffs in some way — dependent, of course, on beating Dallas this Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) and getting back to playing some semblance of competent football.
The running game is an easy target, but still somewhat befuddling. Eddie Lacy has played in 11 games and started eight, while James Starks has played in all 12 games, but started four. Lacy was the primary back until the bye week and was far from elite, averaging only 43 yards per game. Starks actually averaged five more yards coming off the bench in five of those six games, but the Packers were 6-0, so who cared! (Besides those poor suckers who drafted Lacy in the first round of their fantasy leagues, of course.) And yet, Lacy has still been the slightly better back during this rough patch, even posting back-to-back 100-yard games (until last week’s 4-yards-on-5-attempts stinker). In the aggregate, the Packers have a sufficiently mediocre, middle-of-the-league ground game (15th in the NFL), but there’s no consistency or rhythm. Lacy is clearly the better back, but he simply can’t move the way he’s expected, because of fitness or whatever other reason.
And that’s a problem that only highlighted further because Rodgers simply doesn’t have the receiving talent he needs to keep the offense balanced and potent. Green Bay is posting less than 230 yards passing per game (23rd in the league), and Rodgers has Randall Cobb (656 yards, 6 TDs) as something of a deep threat, but not much else. Before his 146-yard effort against Detroit — 61 coming on that final miraculous play — Richard Rodgers had only 293 yards on the season. And without the contributions of James Jones (611 yards on just 31 catches), the Packers’ receiving corps would be truly fallow. We all knew Rodgers would miss Nelson lining up opposite Cobb, but opposing secondaries sure have not. Thus far, Rodgers is on pace for his fewest yards per attempt (6.9), his worst QB rating since his first full season, and his fewest passing yards in any full season.
Green Bay’s defense, however, is maybe the most perplexing because this is a unit with some clearly talented skill players, but the whole falls far below the sum of its parts. About the only impact player on this defense is 23-year-old safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who leads the team with 69 tackles and looks like he has 15 good years left in the league. But this defense also has players like Julius Peppers, B.J. Raji, and Clay Matthews who are clearly starting to show their age. Green Bay is tied for seventh in sacks (33) and 11th in picks (11), but they are giving up way too many yards (19th overall) to instill any sort of confidence in this unit.
But the football gods must be smiling on Lambeau as the putrid Cowboys come to town, at 4-8 and fresh off a shocking, last-second win over Washington on Monday Night Football. Rodgers has thrown eight scores and no picks in five-career games against Dallas, the most recent match-up being a 26-21 Green Bay win in last year’s playoffs. The stakes are far lower this time; Dallas really doesn’t have anything to play for, even being just technically a game out of first in the deplorable NFC East. A win will likely all but assure a seventh-consecutive playoff appearance for the Packers and continue the path toward a Week 17 battle at home against Minnesota, possibly for the division and home-field advantage in the first round.
Yes, despite all these concerns, there’s a realm where the Packers win out, finish 12-4, secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC and all this talk about Rodgers’ struggles, the running game’s chronic inconsistency, and the defense’s unreliability all becomes moot. All Green Bay needs to do is win.
