Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is here, and that means we’re back with winners. If you are unfamiliar with the column, this is year 8 (!) of our endeavor to hand out five picks during each week of the NFL season, and the returns have been reasonably solid. 2023 was a clear success, and we’re not planning to slow down anytime soon.
With that said, Week 1 is full of landmines. Betting lines have been hammered into place over months and months, with fewer opportunities to exploit mis-priced offerings. Still, there are openings available, and we can potentially benefit through staking out positions on which teams the market isn’t seeing correctly.
At any rate, let’s check in with a reminder of last season, ending with the Super Bowl, before handing out this week’s card.
- Super Bowl LVIII: 4-1
- 2023 Season: 59-42-4
Come get these winners.
Carolina Panthers (+4) over New Orleans Saints — Widely Available
If you’ve been with us for a while, you will not be surprised by this bet. If you are less familiar, you might be shocked to see a Week 1 bet on the Panthers. Of course, Carolina was an absolute atrocity last season, finishing 2-15 and earning the No. 1 overall pick that conveyed to Chicago and became Caleb Williams. The Panthers couldn’t protect Bryce Young. They had no skill position talent. It was a true mess. Naturally, we’re taking them in the opener. For one, Carolina made tangible upgrades all over the offense. For another, Young isn’t as bad as it seemed last year. And finally, I’m lower on the Saints than the consensus. Put that in a stew and take Carolina.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) over Chicago Bears — Widely Available
There is a great deal of excitement about the Bears, and I genuinely get it. Caleb Williams projects to be the best quarterback for Chicago in my lifetime and he has an impressive group of wide receivers to go along with a potentially stout defense. However, Williams is still a rookie making his first start, and on principle, I have to take the dog with more than a field goal. It helps that, while Tennessee is in transition, the Titans actually spent a boatload of money trying to be respectable this season. I think they will be, and that starts on Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) over Denver Broncos — FanDuel
We’re fading another rookie quarterback in Week 1 with Bo Nix. Nix is ancient by prospect standards, but this is a still a new level of test, and he’s also playing on the road in front of a raucous crowd. For good measure, Denver’s supporting cast is not exactly elite, and Seattle is being undervalued with this number under a touchdown. I believe in Geno and company so much that I’m laying a favorite of more than a field goal in Week 1. Bizarre stuff.
Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) over Detroit Lions — Widely Available
Didn’t we just watch this game? The Rams were +3 in the Wild Card Round in Detroit in January (we had them!) and lost by a point. That doesn’t mean the same thing will happen again, but the worldwide love for the Lions has pushed this all the way to 4.5 at the time of this post. Detroit is quite good, but I believe in the healthy version of the Rams and Week 1 is a good time for that. The Lions are more likely to win the game outright, but I have to take the candy here.
New York Jets (+4.5) over San Francisco 49ers — Widely Available
The Jets were hilariously bad at times last season, largely due to wholly incompetent quarterback play. I don’t know what Aaron Rodgers is going to be post-Achilles, but I’m confident he’s an upgrade. New York also has two legitimately elite offensive weapons in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Perhaps more importantly, I’m still buying this defense as one that belongs in the top tier. From there, the 49ers have a lot of moving parts right now with holdouts that kept high-profile players away from training camp, some injury concerns, and the looming potential regression coming off a Super Bowl loss. Give me the 4.5 on Monday night.
