OK, so last week’s slate of Wild Card games were good-not-great, sometimes yo-yoing between tedious and disturbingly intense, and none were certainly anywhere near as good as the best the round has ever delivered. They were, in no uncertain terms, an unmitigated disaster for all the home teams involved, which meant a whole lot of pissed-off, highly inebriated fans leaving all four stadiums. If you’re Roger Goodell, that’s not exactly the best result for your product. (Also, if you’re Roger Goodell, I mean, are you now a little nervous about potentially presenting a Super Bowl trophy to the Pats in Santa Clara? It’s at least crossed your mind, right? Night terrors are no joke, I bet.)
The good news? Those games are gone, baby, gone and we can now look forward to some intriguing Divisional round matchups, some that (pray to the football gods) may even deliver some much-needed upsets to liven up these playoffs. But if this postseason stays true to form, then there will be some road teams exalting in the visitors’ locker rooms this weekend, and so the eternal question: Who shall it be? Could both 1-seeds actually lose before the Conference Championships?
The 1-Seeds
The Case for Pittsburgh (at Denver)
This one should probably be the home team lock of the week, right? Simply based on the Steelers’ health status — Ben Roethlisberger trying to stay tranquilized through Sunday so he can’t feel his shoulder pain, Antonio Brown likely to miss the game after suffering a Vontaze Burfict-induced concussion against Cincinnati, DeAngelo Williams still out with a foot injury — but Denver’s own situation doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence, either. Peyton Manning will be making his first start since the disastrous Week 10 that Shall Never Be Mentioned (5-for-20 passing, 35 yards, four INTs), and if the Broncos can’t score points, they can’t win. No team was more split-personality this past season than Denver, making it all the more remarkable they finished 12-4 and with the No. 1 seed. There’s simply no way to know which Broncos offense will show, and that bodes very well for a wounded and desperate Steelers squad.
The Case for Seattle (at Carolina)
Boy howdy, you can’t feel great about this matchup if you’re a Panthers fan. The Seahawks finished No. 1 in Football Outsider’s DVOA ratings for the fourth straight year, and it was that defense (and an ill-fated field goal attempt from Blair Walsh) that propelled Seattle to a 10-9 win in the third-coldest playoff game in NFL history. Russell Wilson, under weather conditions considerably more humane, threw 24 touchdowns against only one pick in the last final seven games of the regular season. In other words, Seattle is far from your typical No. 6 seed. And yes, the Panthers were their own kind of unstoppable dynamo, going 15-1 on the season, and Cam Newton is almost undoubtedly the league’s MVP. But the Seahawks are battle-tested and downright terrifying on both sides of the ball. Their near-complete lack of a functioning running back is their biggest weak spot, but the Panthers are soft themselves in the secondary. This has all the earmarks of a potential classic, high-scoring and down to the wire. And if you’re rooting for Carolina, after the year you’ve had, that’s not the post-bye week reward you were expecting.
The 2-Seeds
The Case for Kansas City (at New England)
The Patriots’ entire offense is dictated by Tom Brady and the passing game, which ranked 5th in the league this season (286 yards per game). But Kansas City had the 9th best passing defense in the NFL (231 ypg) and allowed a measly 112 yards in last week’s dominant 30-0 road win over Houston. And while the idea of momentum is overrated, the Chiefs might certainly be playing with the most confidence of any team, having now won 11 straight games after starting the year 1-5. Yes, Kansas City is missing the kinds of dynamic skill players on offense that New England has, and Bill Belichick prepares for playoff opponents better than any coach alive, but if that 6th-ranked rushing attack can find some kind of traction and let Alex Smith mix in some deep pass plays, this game could get real weird real fast.
The Case for Green Bay (at Arizona)
Aaron Rodgers finds a way, doesn’t he? Last week’s win over Washington was actually a competitive back-and-forth day until the fourth quarter rolled around, but if Rodgers can find his rhythm early against Arizona’s 8th-ranked passing defense and Eddie Lacy can rumble north-to-south for yards at will, then the Packers can keep this competitive and put the pressure on Carson Palmer to match Rodgers point-for-point. More worrisome for Green Bay is that these two teams just met in Week 16 in Glendale and the Cardinals cruised to a 38-8 win. Green Bay committed a season-high four turnovers that day and it’s hard to envision a scenario where the same thing doesn’t happen here, but Mike McCarthy has had a week to gameplan something different and a healthy Rodgers is an X-factor to be underestimated at one’s own risk.
