Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season was a memorable one in many ways. Aaron Rodgers engineered an obscene comeback in front of a national television audience, the Buffalo Bills turned in one of the worst performances in recent memory and the Detroit Lions notably flopped on Monday evening. In addition to that trio of events (and many other occurrences), we delivered a 5-0 week picking winners in this space.
In the interest of full disclosure, 5-0 weeks don’t happen often and, well, they shouldn’t be expected moving forward. Still, the stars aligned on Sunday and the result is a nice cushion in which to work from as the 2018 campaign continues. With that in mind, we will stand firm on our convictions, with fading the public chiefly among them, and fire off five additional selections this week.
- Week 1: 5-0
- 2018 Season: 5-0
Come get these winners.
Cincinnati Bengals (PK) over Baltimore Ravens
Everyone on the planet is on the Ravens this week. That comes as a result of the aforementioned drubbing of the Bills in the opener and, make no mistake, Baltimore looked good during the destruction. However, Joe Flacco and company are overvalued at the moment and this line is just wrong. Are the Ravens better than the Bengals? Perhaps, but Cincinnati shouldn’t be a home underdog and we love to be on the other side of the public in a national spot like the one arriving on Thursday night.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs
We won’t give out many favorites over the course of the 17-week season but this is the (very) rare spot in which a “public” team is not the public side. The Steelers looked bad in tying the Browns last week, while the Chiefs blasted the Chargers as an underdog. That combination leads this line to be at least two or three points too low. For good measure, more than 80 percent of the tickets are on the Chiefs (we love that) and Ben Roethlisberger has a documented history of performing much better at home than on the road. Lay the points.
Indianapolis Colts (+6) over Washington
Washington put together a quiet destruction of the over-matched Cardinals last week and that alleviated some fear of a 2018 flop in the nation’s capital. Couple that with the fact that the Colts lost to the Bengals and, again, we have a line that’s just “off” by enough to entice us. Washington should win this game at home but the return of Andrew Luck brings a bit more confidence in the Colts. More importantly, I’m just not buying the full-fledged breakout from the home team in this spot.
Arizona Cardinals (+13) over Los Angeles Rams
Most of the time, we’ll be on a double-digit underdog in the NFL. That’s just how this works. The public loves to lay points with good teams and the Rams are (obviously) better than the Cardinals. Los Angeles also won by 20 points in the opener, while Arizona looked terrible. I get it. This won’t be fun. The Cardinals are still the right side at 12 and, if you wait, this might get to 13 or even 14 by kick-off.
New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 23 points in the first half
We had to take an under and this is a good spot for it. The Pats are the Pats and isn’t a pleasure to root for Tom Brady not to score points. This bet, though, is actually a tribute to New England’s defense, which showed itself to be feisty in Week 1. The Jags know they can’t “outscore” the Patriots with guns blazing on offense and that should help us to this window with an ugly, yet entertaining football extravaganza… at least in the first half.
