It’s Week three of the NFL season and some teams are still looking for their first win while others wish to remain undefeated. There are eight teams sitting at 2-0 (Dolphins and Bucs are 1-0) and nine teams are 0-2 including the New York Giants, who were a playoff team last year that looks awful right now. I was wrong on them before the year because I expected them to be good, but nope. That’s how fast opinions can change in the NFL. Anyway, let’s get into this week’s matchups featuring way too many home underdogs which make it a scary week to bet.
Last Week’s Results:
11-5 Straight Up (20-11 Season)
9-7 Point Spread (15-16 Season)
A lot of favorites won last week because a lot of them were at home. Nice bounce back after a tricky Week 1.
Note: The point spreads I use come from VegasInsider. All times listed are in the Eastern Time zone.
LA Rams (1-1) -2.5 @ San Francisco (0-2) [8:25pm THU]
Thursday night games are rarely good because the players don’t have time to rest from Sunday’s games and the quality tends to suffer. The Niners only won two games last year and both of them came against the Rams, so perhaps they have their number. I don’t see it happening this year, though. The Rams have more talent on the offensive side of the ball with QB Jared Goff playing better, RB Todd Gurley getting more touches in the passing game and they are scoring a lot more this year (33 points per game after the first two). The Niners need to establish the run with RB Carlos Hyde because the Rams are vulnerable against that. I think they’ll do a decent job of it, but my Rams will hold on to win what could be an ugly game to watch. The Pick: LA Rams 20-17
Baltimore (2-0) -3.5 vs. Jacksonville (1-1) [9:30am SUN]
This game takes place in London, England and counts as a Jaguars home game. The Jags offense is likely going to struggle against the Ravens defense, which looks dominant these days. The Ravens offense isn’t that exciting, but they can move the ball enough with the short passing game and I like how WR Jeremy Maclin fits in there. Going with the Ravens to win and cover the spread. I think that spread is too low. They should win comfortably. The Pick: Baltimore 24-10
Cleveland (0-2) -1 @ Indianapolis (0-2) [1:00pm SUN]
It’s a battle of winless teams and the Browns are a road favorite. What a bizarre world! I don’t see myself flipping to this game once while using Sunday Ticket. I’ll go Colts just because their run game is decent, maybe they find WR TY Hilton on a deep pass and I think home field may help. The Pick: Indianapolis 17-14
Pittsburgh (2-0) -7.5 @ Chicago (0-2) [1:00pm]
The Steelers play a lot better at home and at this point they haven’t had a dominant win when their offensive weapons have a big game. I don’t know about you, but as a guy that has RB Le’Veon Bell in fantasy leagues I want to see him doing more and I’m not sure if this is the game because of those road struggles. It should still be a Steelers win because they have way more talent. I can’t see the Bears scoring enough to win. The Pick: Pittsburgh 26-16
Miami (1-0) -6 @ NY Jets (0-2) [1:00pm]
Going with the Dolphins because the Jets stink and I have a hard time writing positive things about the Jets. To their credit, QB Josh McCown is moving the ball with their weak WR group, so they are at least decent. I’m trying to be positive here! Divisional games tend to be closer, which makes me want to take the Jets to cover the spread, but it should be a Dolphins win. The Pick: Miami 23-20
Denver (2-0) -3 @ Buffalo (1-1) [1:00pm]
The Broncos are the early leader in the “they are better than we thought they were” category. The defense is amazing as we already know while QB Trevor Siemian has been as efficient as anybody so far this year. Plus, they can run the ball well too. It’s easy to like what they are doing. As for the Bills, I expect their run game to suffer since the Broncos shut down the Cowboys run game, which is great, so how can the Bills move the ball? I think they’ll struggle and I like the Broncos to cover that spread comfortably too. I’m all in on the Broncos. The Pick: Denver 27-13
Houston (1-1) @ New England (1-1) -13 [1:00pm]
I like the Texans defense a lot and I think they can match up well with the Pats especially with the injuries the Patriots are dealing with. The problem is that the Texans have a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson with an inconsistent offense around them. The Pats defense has been bad, but I think this is a game they can do really well. There will be some turnovers leading to a potential blowout win for QB Tom Brady and friends. The Pick: New England 31-14
New Orleans (0-2) @ Carolina (2-0) -6 [1:00pm]
If you read my season preview then you know I was high on the Panthers before the season and so far my prediction of them getting back to the playoffs looks good. Their defense looks elite again while the offense is coming along slowly. I’m a little worried about losing TE Greg Olsen for the next two months with a broken foot. The Panthers only scored 9 last week. Lucky for them they play the awful Saints defense, who are even worse on the road. It will be a nice day for QB Cam Newton and I expect a big day from rookie RB Christian McCaffrey, who should get a lot more touches with Olsen out. Can WR Kelvin Benjamin do more? It would be nice. The Pick: Carolina 30-17
Tampa Bay (1-0) @ Minnesota (1-1) -2.5 [1:00pm]
There’s no line on VegasInsider due to the Sam Bradford injury, so I’m using the line from my CBSSports Pick Em group.
The Bucs impressed me a lot last week even though it was only the lowly Bears. I think this game will be a tougher test since the Vikings defense is tough and that matchup of Vikes CB Xavier Rhodes against Bucs WR Mike Evans because Rhodes did a great job against Steelers WR Antonio Brown last week. The Bucs have a lot of weapons, though, and I think QB Jameis Winston is going to target WR Desean Jackson more and maybe use his TEs as well. The main reason I like the Bucs is that their defense should stop the Vikes whether it’s Bradford at QB or not. The Pick: Tampa Bay 23-13
Atlanta (2-0) -3 @ Detroit (2-0) [1:00pm]
I learned my lesson picking against Atlanta at home last week. I don’t see myself doing that again this year. On the road, it’s a different story especially against a Lions team that is looking very good on both sides of the ball. Lions are probably second behind the Broncos in terms of a team that is better than I thought two weeks ago. QB Matt Stafford is playing really well by spreading the ball around and is probably a top ten QB again. The Lions defense has also impressed. I like the Falcons too much right now to go against them. They are healthy, QB Matt Ryan looks as great as last year in his MVP season and even though their best pass rush rusher Vic Beasley is out, I think they’ll do enough to win. It’s a tough pick, so I’ll pick the Lions to cover the spread too. The Pick: Atlanta 27-25
NY Giants (0-2) @ Philadelphia (1-1) -6 [1:00pm]
The Giants are the biggest disappointment this year. I had them going to the playoffs this year like they did last year, but right now they look like they might have double digit losses. QB Eli Manning is looking off because of his crappy offensive line and even when he gets time, he can’t seem to connect down the field. The running game might be the worst in the NFL too. Defensively they are solid, but the offense sucks so much that it’s hard to like them. The Eagles are clearly a team on the rise and I think they can win this game comfortably because of how bad the Giants offense is. The Pick: Philadelphia 26-13
Seattle (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-1) -2.5 [4:05pm]
Seattle only has 21 points after two weeks, so it’s fair to say they have problems with their offense. It’s another team with another terrible offensive line that can’t seem to figure things out. The Titans are a young team on the rise that can run the ball with their two RBs Murray and Henry while QB Marcus Mariota continues to impress. I’m still on the Seahawks bandwagon in terms of them being an elite team, so I feel like their defense is going to do enough plays to get the win. It will be a close one. The Pick: Seattle 24-20
Kansas City (2-0) -3 @ LA Chargers (0-2) [4:25pm]
Home underdogs in the division is a route I like to go. The Chargers are one of those teams that I feel is better than their record and they just lost a close game to the Dolphins last week. The Chiefs should finish with a better record to end the year, but I think Chargers QB Phil Rivers is going to find a way to get the job done. It’s must-win for the Chargers to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start and I think they’ll do it. The Pick: LA Chargers 27-24
Cincinnati (0-2) @ Green Bay -9 [4:25pm]
The Bengals are a bottom five teams that have already fired their offensive coordinator, but I don’t know if that’s going to be enough. Maybe they will use rookie RB Joe Mixon more now. There are issues with QB Andy Dalton too because he looks terrible. I doubt Bengals coach Marvin Lewis makes it past ten games as the coach this year. The Packers at home are a dominant team that should be angry after losing in Atlanta. Blowout win coming for the Packers with a 4 TD game for Aaron Rodgers. The Pick: Green Bay 37-10
Oakland (2-0) -3 @ Washington (1-1) [8:30pm]
Oakland is first in points scored right now with 35.5 PPG and they go into Washington against a defense that is inconsistent. Sure, they have a top CB in Josh Norman, but if he shadows one of the Raiders star WRs Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree then I expect the great Raiders QB Derek Carr to spread the ball around. Also, I’ve been impressed by RB Marshawn Lynch looking good one year after he retired. As for Washington, the offense looks like it has taken a bit of a step back this year and they aren’t as aggressive as they were. Against the Raiders they need to score more and I don’t think they can. The Pick: Oakland 31-24
Dallas (1-1) -3 @ Arizona (1-1) [8:30pm MON]
The Cardinals offense isn’t the same without star RB David Johnson. The RB group they have now doesn’t scare anybody and the defense is able to focus on the passing game more. The Cowboys struggled offensive in Denver with no running game. They better get it going here because it may be tough to get WR Dez Bryant going against top Cards CB Patrick Peterson, who is the best in the game. I think Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott will produce enough to carry the team to victory and I just don’t like the Cards offense right now to roll with them considering how much they struggled to beat the lowly Colts. Cowboys win a tight game. The Pick: Dallas 23-16
My Fave Five Bets Of The Week
It was a strong performance last week because I got the Ravens, Bucs, and Patriots as big favorites that covered and the Niners/Seahawks went under 42.5 (it was 21). My only loss was picking the Dolphins/Chargers to go over 45 when it ended at 36.
Last week: 4-1 (Season 6-4)
Here are my five favorite bets for this week.
@ Green Bay -9 Cincinnati – I don’t understand that line. Even if it was 14 I’d take the Packers.
Baltimore -3.5 vs. Jacksonville (Game is in England)
Denver -3 @ Buffalo
Tampa Bay +2.5 @ Minnesota
Kansas City @ LA Chargers OVER 47
That’s all for this week. I’ll be back for more next week. Enjoy the games.
