Sometimes, you’re just on the wrong side. That was the case twice during Week 7 of the NFL season, as underdogs failed to cover in spectacular fashion on both Thursday and Sunday evenings. Still, we managed to scratch and claw our way to a dead-even week and, frankly, that felt like an enormous success given the two high-profile flops.
As always, we’ll be here to fade the public and find value where you may not expect in Week 8 but, before we do, here’s a look at how we’ve fared through seven weeks and 35 selections.
- Week 7: 2-2-1
- 2018 Season: 20-13-2
Come get these winners.
Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans UNDER 45 points
Catch the magic of Thursday Night Football… with a good, old-fashioned Under play. There isn’t much to be excited about with this game and, although it is more intriguing than last week’s contest between the Cardinals and Broncos, we’re betting that there won’t be a lot of fireworks. Miami’s defense is sneaky solid and, on the flip side, Houston is more than capable of slowing the Brock Osweiler train. Throw in the added weirdness of a short week and a lot field goals and punts should follow.
Denver Broncos (+10) over Kansas City Chiefs
I keep betting against the Chiefs. The Chiefs keep covering. Kansas City is a ridiculous 7-0 against the spread this season and, as a result, this number is artificially inflated. Do I love taking the Broncos here? Absolutely not, but my principles won’t allow me to pass on a double-digit underdog here, particularly given the presence of Kansas City’s porous defense. With that said, I’ll understand if you don’t want to join me on the path to destruction.
Green Bay Packers (+9.5) over Los Angeles Rams
If I’m being honest, it would’ve been nice to get 10 here. Still, that number was only available for a (very) brief time earlier in the week and, while it might bounce back to double figures given all of the public love for the Rams, we can’t assume that at the moment. Still, the Packers are the right side in this spot, as this number should probably be 7. Make no mistake, the Rams are the best team in the NFL right now but Aaron Rodgers has never been an underdog of this magnitude in his career and, if nothing else, we’ll have the backdoor potential in the final minutes.
Arizona Cardinals (PK) over San Francisco 49ers
No one should be watching this game and I probably won’t either. The Cardinals and Niners are both bad football teams and there are other quality match-ups in the same window. Still, Arizona is getting free line value here, as they should probably be favored by 2.5. In fact, I’m not entirely sure the Cardinals are worse than the Niners at all, leading me to take the home team and hope Josh Rosen improves.
Minnesota Vikings (-1) over New Orleans Saints
Before we get to the Vikings, I have to at least mention that the Bills are getting almost two touchdowns at home on Monday evening. I can’t pull the trigger on that one, simply because the Bills are actually that bad, but it’s the only side.
At any rate, the Vikings are a short home favorite (and you may even be able to get PK in some spots by kick-off) and that represents value in my view. The Saints might be slightly better than the Vikings on a neutral field (especially indoors) but the place should be rocking in Minnesota and New Orleans just isn’t as effective away from the friendly confines of home. I know this Saints team is better suited for road play with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram on board (and the revenge factor in play from the postseason) but I have to take the unpopular side, even if it’s a favorite.
