We’re Picking Winners For Every Week 9 Game Of The NFL Season

It’s been a newsworthy week around the National Football League heading into Week 9 because of the Tuesday trade deadline that surprisingly saw some interesting moves. Some years nothing goes on, but this year there were some notable names switching teams.

The New England Patriots traded away backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the lowly San Francisco 49ers for a 2018 second round pick. I like it a lot for the Niners because Garoppolo can be their QB of the future and they can focus on drafting other positions in the 2018 draft. As for the Pats, obviously they feel like Tom Brady can play another four or five years if they are trading away his backup when he’s 40 years old. It’s hard to question them considering their incredible run in the last 17 years with Brady at QB.

Jay Ajayi got traded from the Miami Dolphins to the Philadelphia Eagles this week, which should help the Eagles poor running game. It just didn’t seem like the Dolphins liked Ajayi’s attitude and they probably think it’s an addition by subtraction.

I really liked the Seattle Seahawks trading for OT Duane Brown because their offensive line has had a lot of issues. Brown wanted a raise from the Texans, they didn’t want to do it and now he’s on the Seahawks. The Texans get back a 2018 third-round pick and a 2019 second-round pick for Brown.

The most surprising trade was the Carolina Panthers sending their perceived #1 WR Kelvin Benjamin to the Buffalo Bills in a trade that didn’t sit well with Panthers fan Stephen Curry. The Bills needed help at WR, so it makes a lot of sense for them and they only had to give up a third and seventh round draft picks. I’m confused it about from the Panthers’ perspective.

In the last bit of trade news, the Browns nearly traded for AJ McCarron from the Bengals, but they didn’t make the move in time. It’s such a Browns move that it’s almost mean to laugh since these things tend to happen to that organization.

It is time for this week’s picks and don’t forget to check out our man Jason’s fantasy football column as well. It’s the time of year where things get tough as we try to figure out who to play with all the byes and injuries out there.

Last Week’s Results:

11-2 Straight Up (74-45 Season)
7-6 Point Spread (56-62-1 Season)

Great week again after going 12-3 the prior week. That’s 23-5 in the last two weeks. I know it’s been predictable those two weeks, though, so I can’t celebrate too much.

Note: The point spreads I use come from VegasInsider. All times listed are in the Eastern Time zone.

The following teams have byes this week: Chicago, Cleveland, LA Chargers, Minnesota, New England, Pittsburgh

Buffalo (5-2) -3 @ NY Jets (3-5) [8:25pm THU]

The Bills could be playoff bound for the first time since 1999 thanks in large part to RB LeSean McCoy, who is looking as healthy as ever and coming off a huge game last week. Since the Jets are 28th against the run, I think the Bills will run McCoy heavily and that’s when QB Tyrod Taylor will strike with some play action deep balls. The Jets are playing better than I thought, but I don’t think they can score enough against a good Bills defense.

The Pick: Buffalo 27-17

Baltimore (4-4) @ Tennessee (4-3) -5.5 [1:00pm SUN]

I can’t figure out the Ravens this year, so the 4-4 record is no surprise. One week they look like they are dominant on defense and another week they look terrible. Last week they shut down the Dolphins in a blowout win. The Titans have a more complete offense, though. This feels like a low scoring game.

The Pick: Tennessee 23-21

Tampa Bay (2-5) @ New Orleans (5-2) -7 [1:00pm SUN]

These teams are going in opposite directions. The Saints have won five straight and are leading the NFC South at 5-2. The Bucs are 2-5 with an 0-3 record on the road. I really like the balance offense of the Saints this year. They aren’t just relying on QB Drew Brees to sling the ball over the field. They have a solid ground game with RBs Ingram and Kamara, which is making it tough on opponents. Plus, the Saints defense is 17th against the pass and 21st against the run, which is better than their usual spot in the bottom five of the league. They are playing winning football and I think the they’ll big here.

The Pick: New Orleans 34-17

LA Rams (5-2) -3.5 @ NY Giants (1-6) [1:00pm SUN]

These are two of the biggest surprise teams for different reasons. If this game took place in week one it would probably be Giants -7 or even more based on their records last year. With Giants top CB (and former Ram) Janoris Jenkins suspended for disciplinary reasons, the Rams should be able to throw the ball well along with a heavy dose of RB Todd Gurley in the run game. The Giants are a mess especially on offense, so I don’t expect them to do score that much. The Rams know they need to win a game like this to keep up with the Seahawks in the NFC West, so it should be a road win for the Rams.

The Pick: LA Rams 24-13

Denver (3-4) @ Philadelphia (7-1) -8 [1:00pm SUN]

This has blowout written all over it. Eagles are legit with the best record in the NFL while putting up 29 PPG (3rd in the NFL). The eight-point spread seems too low. For some reason, the Broncos tend to be overrated just because of their offense. The problem is the offense is so bad, especially with Brock Osweiler at QB, that they’re going to turn it over and the Eagles should be able to run up the score.

The Pick: Philadelphia 31-17

Atlanta (4-3) @ Carolina (5-3) -1 [1:00pm SUN]

The last two Super Bowl losers are battling in the NFC South along with the Saints to see who will win what is one of the toughest divisions in the NFL this year. The Panthers offense may be better without WR Kelvin Benjamin, but I think their lack of weapons is going to hurt. They can’t run the ball with their RBs that well, so that leads to them being stagnant.

With that said, the Falcons play-calling is pretty bad and they don’t seem to understand that RB Devonta Freeman should touch the ball more. Freeman has 455 rush yards and a 4.5 yards per carry average, which is above average, yet he’s only getting about 15 carries per game. Run the ball more. It will help Matt Ryan, who only has 9 TDs in 7 games after having an MVP year last year. I’m going with the Panthers because their defense can shut teams down and the Falcons offense just isn’t what they were last year, so give me the Panthers in a close game.

The Pick: Carolina 24-20

Cincinnati (3-4) @ Jacksonville (4-3) -4.5 [1:00pm SUN]

It looks like Jaguars star RB Leonard Fournette is good to go after an ankle injury because the bye week gave him time to heal. He’s the main reason they are 4-3 along with that defense. The Bengals are fighting back to .500 after a rough start and they should run the ball a lot since the Jags are 32nd in rush defense. Where the Bengals will struggle is against the Jags #1 ranked pass defense and I think with a healthy Fournette, the Jags should find a way to win at home.

The Pick: Jacksonville 23-17

Indianapolis (2-6) @ Houston (3-4) -13 [1:00pm SUN]

I’m happy the Texans have finally found a franchise QB in Deshaun Watson. He’s putting up incredible stats, but the team is struggling because the defense is dealing with a lot of injuries. Lucky for them, the Colts are awful and I think the Texans will score over 40 points leading to an easy win.

The Pick: Houston 41-24

Arizona (3-4) -2 @ San Francisco (0-8) [4:05pm SUN]

Awful game and I feel sorry for the fans in attendance. This could be the Niners first win, but I see Cards RB Adrian Peterson having a big day coming off a bye. Maybe the Niners will win when new QB Jimmy Garoppolo starts in a few weeks. Not yet.

The Pick: Arizona 27-20

Washington (3-4) @ Seattle (5-2) -7 [4:05pm SUN]

It’s hard not to like the Seahawks when they’ve won four in a row and are 3-0 at home. I think Seahawks QB Russell Wilson might be the NFL MVP this year if they can win double digit games without much of a run game and a poor O-Line. He’s just making plays all over the place while their WR group of Baldwin, Richardson and Lockett are doing well. Even TE Jimmy Graham did well last week. There are concerns with the Seahawks defense, but I don’t think Washington’s offense has the weapons to exploit them.

The Pick: Seattle 34-20

Kansas City (6-2) -1 @ Dallas (4-3) [4:25pm SUN]

This would be a very tough game to pick if Cowboys superstar RB Ezekiel Elliott was playing because he’s put up some huge stats in the last month. However, Elliot is suspended for six weeks (as of this writing), so that means the Cowboys offense may struggle at times because I don’t think the backup duo of Morris & McFadden are going to scare anybody. Chiefs are a top five team and they should be able to score with their sixth ranked passing attack.

The Pick: Kansas City 27-23

Oakland (3-5) -3 @ Miami (4-3) [8:30pm SUN]

That’s such a weird spread since the Raiders are one of the biggest disappointments this year as a 3-5 team that was expected to be much better. I don’t know how the Dolphins are 4-3 with an inconsistent run game. Now they don’t have RB Jay Ajayi (traded to the Eagles) and quarterback has been a big problem all year. It’s hard for me to go with the Dolphins considering all their issues, so I’ll reluctantly pick the Raiders for the road win.

The Pick: Oakland 24-23

Detroit (3-4) -2.5 @ Green Bay (4-3) [8:30pm MON]

Another home underdog that has a better team than the road favorites. In this case, it’s because the Packers are starting QB Brett Hundley instead of star QB Aaron Rodgers. Hundley looked bad in a week seven loss to the Saints and a bye week may have done him well, but I think the Lions have more talent right now. Matt Stafford is playing well and the defense is doing a solid job most of the time. They lost that game to the Steelers last week because their red zone offense stunk. If they can correct that problem they should win comfortably.

The Pick: Detroit 26-17

My Fave Five Bets Of The Week

It was a bit of a downer last week with a 2-3 record, but I’m only a game under .500 for the year, so it’s not too bad.

Last week: 2-3 (Season 19-20-1)

@ New Orleans –7 Tampa Bay
@ Philadelphia -8 Denver
Washington @ Seattle OVER 45
Kansas City -1 @ Dallas
LA Rams -3.5 @ NY Giants

That’s all for this week. I’ll be back for more next week. Enjoy the games.