With Sunday’s Hall of Fame game between the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills behind us, so begins yet another year of mental punishment and emotional masochism that I still somehow lovingly refer to as fantasy football. All of the offseason hot takes in the world can’t stop us from overanalyzing statistics, schedules and third-string sleepers, and that’s why I’m back with the latest annual installment of my own personal Fantasy Football Guide for Defeating, Demoralizing and Destroying the Hopes of Friends, Family and Complete Strangers. Except this year there’s going to be a little more fun tossed into the mix, not only to help us all draft our teams with confidence, but also to aid in showing compassion for the humiliating losses that we always take, because no one can predict the wrath of this cruel banshee they call fantasy football.
For starters, to make the weekly Fantasy Football Support Group a little more interesting, I’ve launched the inaugural UPROXX Invitational Fantasy Football League, which will feature 12 bloggers and otherwise enjoyable personalities from around the web facing off for fun and essential bragging rights. I’ll be revealing the identities of those scoundrels later this week after we’ve drafted, but all you really need to know is that PFT Commenter is involved, and if you’re like me, that’s the most important thing in the world. On top of that (and the standard positional draft analysis) I’ve got some special supplemental insight coming from some actual Fantasy Football Experts, just in case my knowledge is not enough for you.
That said, let’s get into the disclaimer portion of the first installment of this season’s draft guide. I am not an expert at anything except for making fart noises with my hands, so should you choose to take my advice, know that I am merely a mortal who does pretty well at fantasy football (last year’s results: three leagues, three third place finishes). The real reason that I do this is because I know that we all crave validity in our draft day decisions, and we want other people to tell us that we’re high if we think that this is the year that Lee Evans puts it all together or DeAngelo Williams is finally going to be the star of Carolina’s running back corps. Some people are going to disagree with me, while others will follow every last word. The reason we’re doing this, though, is because conversation helps us clear our minds (even if it comes at the expense of me revealing my draft strategies to all of the sucker chump punk ass beeyotches I play against).
First up, the quarterbacks who will lead us to fantasy prominence this year, as we’re nothing without our signal-callers, both elite and simply capable. I’ll be using really terrible photoshops of Disney Princesses and Heroines to rank my QB picks this year, because they are true symbols of beauty and power, and you can’t get as mad at a cartoon woman as you can at Colin Kaepernick’s goofy-ass face when he’s constantly letting you down each week, DAMN YOU KAEPERNICK WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN CHAMPIONS ACROSS THE BOARD LAST SEASON WHY ARE YOU SO TERRIBLE AT MANAGING THE GAME CLOCK?!?!?!
The Snow White: Peyton Manning
Where he’ll be drafted: First round
Where you should take him: Pick 4 and beyond
Until someone, probably Mike McCoy or Andy Reid, slips Peyton Manning a poisoned apple, he’s going to continue to be as dependable as the sun coming up in the morning. See what I did there with the poisoned apple and Snow White? That’s the kind of clever pop culture shoe-horning that you’ve come to expect from me after all these years, the same way that you’ve come to expect 400 yards and 3 touchdowns from Peyton each week.
However, as a fantasy conservative, I still believe in taking one of the very few elite RBs in the Top 3, and probably even Matt Forte with the No. 4 pick, before I’d consider a QB in the first round. (I’ll touch on my Eddie Lacy concerns tomorrow.) But Peyton is the only QB I’d consider in the first round, because the priority should always be grabbing a top RB and WR first. These are the Burnsy Keys to Fantasy Domination, and this is why people from Guam to Lesser Antilles keep coming back for more.
The Mulan: Aaron Rodgers
Where he’ll be drafted: Maybe in the late first round, but more likely the second round
Where you should take him: Late second round
I don’t know why I picked the Chinese woman for Aaron Rodgers, but I like Mulan. She seems powerful. Ideally, you have the No. 3 or 4 overall pick and you start the draft by taking Adrian Peterson or Matt Forte, so your next step is a top QB and then a top WR so you complete my “Rule of 3,” which states: “He who shall draft a top player in each main position shall rule the land.” So if he’s there, you grab Rodgers with your second pick toward the end of the second round, and then maybe Jordy Nelson with your third round pick to double down on that connection. You’d probably be safer with Antonio Brown and all of his receptions with that third pick, but I love the 1-2 punch of a QB to his top WR.
Rodgers is basically the pizza of fantasy football. You may not be in the mood for pizza – Rodgers isn’t on my radar this season – but you never say no to pizza, and unless someone broke your pizza’s collarbone again, it’s going to be fine.
The Tinker Bell: Drew Brees
Where he’ll be drafted: Second round, maybe the early third round
Where you should take him: Late second round
For the record, I hate doing mock drafts because they’re full of either morons practicing for their first ever drafts or trolls who have the saddest lives and nothing better to do than f*ck with dorks who want to see how far Trent Richardson drops to them. I did one the other night for my upcoming 12th pick draft, and this guy took Peyton Manning with the No. 2 pick and then Drew Brees with his second pick. His reasoning, as he explained to the dorks biting on his BS in the chat, was that he can trade Brees for a huge haul before the season begins. Realistically, both Peyton and Brees will go around those picks anyway, so I kept going for the sake of, you know, seeing how far Trent would fall. Then the a-hole took Tom Brady with his third pick and I shouted at God, “Why do you keep making me think it’s a good use of time to do a mock draft?!?!”
Anyway, Brees is a magical little man, and he’s perfect for that guy who took Jimmy Graham in the first round (even though I never ever ever condone taking a TE in the first round). The obvious problem with that idea is that you’re not getting a top RB anymore, unless one of the guys dropping to rounds 3-7 ends up redeeming himself. But you can’t ever plan for that, and… I just realized I’m on a tangent. This will be 5,000 words before I know it.
The Jessica Rabbit: Matt Stafford
Where he’ll be drafted: Third or fourth round
Where you should take him: Third round if you’re ballsy, fourth is about right, and fifth if you’re lucky
It’s no stretch to say that everyone out there in fantasy land thinks that this is the year that Stafford makes the leap to that the top tier of fantasy QBs. It’s his sixth season in the league and he has arguably the best receivers he has ever had, so naturally he’s the sexiest pick in the draft with a set of ridiculous cartoon breasts. He had 8 games with 20+ points in standard scoring formats last season, which is obviously great, but the only thing holding me back from screaming, “TAKE THIS GUY IN THE THIRD! F*CK RESTRAINTS AND COMMON SENSE!” is that four-week run at the end of last season, when he had three games with less than 5 points. That’s just your fantasy playoffs and all, so I understand if you’re not buying the hype again after being hurt.
The Jasmine: Matt Ryan
Where he’ll be drafted: Fifth or sixth round
Where you should take him: Fifth or sixth round, seventh if he’s still there and you rolled the dice
I used to think that Matt Ryan wasn’t worth our time or attention in fantasy football, because he’s an unproven dork who sometimes acts like he’s among the elite, so picking him always felt a little bit like slumming. But the guy put up 11 double-digit games last season without Julio Jones and with Harry Douglas as his 1,000 yard star. It’s time that I give the street urchin the respect that he deserves (specifically with healthy receivers) and acknowledge Ryan as the beautiful princess that he truly is. (Still, I’d much rather have Stafford.)
The Ariel: Colin Kaepernick
Where he’ll be drafted: Somewhere between the 4th and 6th rounds
Where you should take him: No sooner than the 6th round, but you’ll get rattled when Stafford is taken and grab Kaep in the 4th
How is the San Francisco 49ers quarterback like Ariel from The Little Mermaid? Well… get ready for this one, because it’s great… there’s something fishy about him. Get it? That’s just good comedy. Give it to me one time, Dancing Peyton Manning.
But seriously, I went all in on Kaep last year – drafted him in two, traded for him in the third – and I finished third in each league. If he had lived up to my expectations, God knows how that would have all turned out. This season, he has better receivers and running backs, and the 49ers have a new offensive plan that better suits him. Still, he has to play the Seahawks and Cardinals twice, and he’s still carrying the torch of a colossal fantasy letdown from last season.
Anyway, I guarantee I’m reaching for this shmuck again.
The Cinderella: Andrew Luck
Where he’ll be drafted: 4th or 5th round
Where you should take him: 4th or 5th round
Luck is like Diet Stafford this season, in that he’s younger but we expect just as much out of him. He’s a sexy little house cleaner who might blossom into the princess with the right glass slipper and mice that can sew a new gown and trim his beard for him. Also, I like that he gets Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back and adds Hakeem Nicks. He’ll have as many receiving options this season as I have terrible metaphors.
The Alice: Nick Foles
Where he’ll be drafted: Ummmmm, 5th or 6th round maybe?
Where you should take him: I honestly have no clue
Foles baffles me. Obviously, he has the ability to be awesome, as he proved with last season’s 7 TD performance against the Oakland Raiders. But Foles doesn’t get to play the Raiders every week, and he lost DeSean Jackson. I just don’t know how to call this one, but my gut’s giving me that feeling like, “Dude, you know this guy is going to have a monster year if you don’t take him, so take him you f*cking dick.” My gut is mad at me because I don’t eat Totino’s Pizza Rolls each day, so that’s why he talks to me like that.
I think the biggest thing with Foles is that if Jeremy Maclin stays healthy and Jordan Matthews is as good as advertised (and Zach Ertz gets better while LeSean MCoy and Darren Sproles do their things) then he’ll be an awesome QB. And no, I couldn’t be any safer and void of testicles if I tried with that statement of obvious nonsense.
The Minnie Mouse: Tom Brady
Where he’ll be drafted: Somewhere between the 5th and 7th
Where you should take him: Either after the 5th round or before Tony Romo is the last “good” option
Brady’s the gold standard and guy whose name always means something, but is he going to single-handedly win you fantasy games each week? Maybe. Four of his last six games last season netted 20+ points, but he’s not the elite guy he used to be. He’s the safest possible QB pick you can make. Tom Brady is cheese pizza.
The Princess Aurora: Jay Cutler
Where he’ll be drafted: 8th round or later, probably as a backup, causing that person to say, “Can’t believe I got Cutler as my backup, bro”
Where you should take him: As a backup after the good QBs have gone
Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey told Michael Irvin that J-Cutty is going to be the MVP of the NFL this season. They’re supposed to have confidence in their QB and say all the right things to boost his confidence and make the fans believe in him so they’re not booing him by Week 7. But Jay Cutler, the mopiest bro that ever did mope, as a more dynamic passer than Peyton/Rodgers/Brees/Stafford/Luck? You’re going to have to get me really drunk to talk me into that one in Year 9 of his career.
But he is throwing to arguably the best WR tandem in the NFL, so Cutler still makes for a hell of a fantasy backup, in case your better option ends up like Rodgers last season.
The Merida: Andy Dalton
Where he’ll be drafted: 8th round
Where you should take him: 7th or 8th round
I was going to wedge Dalton in the next category of QBs, but I’m fascinated by him. Last season, he only had three single-digit games and he had three games with 3 or more INT. However, he also had 12 double-digit games, including 29, 17 and 34 (standard passing scores) in Weeks 14-16, or the playoff crunch for most of us. Now, factor in a new contract, the faith of his franchise and the fact that he’s throwing to AJ Green, Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert, while handing off to Giovani Bernard, and I’m actually willing to put my BRAVE balls on the table and say this is a guy who might make the leap.
Is he?
You know what?
Yep.
I’m making Andy Dalton my value QB of this year’s fantasy football draft. Pick him up now, folks, and I’ll even throw in this sterling silver necklace for the low, unbeatable price of $69.69.
The Elsas
This is basically that next group of QBs who could perform well enough to fit right into a team with several top tier RB/WRs, which is great because there will be weeks that they will suck in hilarious fashion, and you’ll need your top RB and WR to carry you.
Cam Newton
Where he’ll be drafted: 5th through 7th
Where you should take him: 7th or 8th if you’ve been overwhelmed with value picks leading up to that point and just could not turn down so-and-so for your WR2 or whatshisface for RB3
I’ve always liked Newton, and I thought Kelvin Benjamin was a great pick by the Panthers, but I don’t think they’re going to be Culpepper-to-Moss just yet. So that leaves the Island of Wide Receiver Outcasts like Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant and Tiquan Underwood. What a mess of an offense, but Newton will still be better than the bottom two-thirds of the QBs.
Philip Rivers
Where he’ll be drafted: 7th through 9th
Where you should take him: 8th or later, if all of the other “good enough” and “sure thing” guys are gone
Rivers had a hell of a season last year, especially compared to 2012. He ended up bailing me out of my Kaepernick mess in two leagues for a chunk of the season. He has talented young receivers in Keenan Allen and Ladarius Green, so he’s not struggling for help on the field. A fantasy owner can do worse.
Russell Wilson
Where he’ll be drafted: Maybe as early as the 7th and as late as the 10th
Where you should take him: Probably around the 8th if you’re in the situation where you can take two QBs within four picks and take a chance on potential
Sure, Wilson won a Super Bowl this year, so he’s obviously good enough to lead an actual franchise. But I didn’t even realize until I started looking at last season’s numbers that he did really well from a fantasy perspective last year. Aside from the fact that he has to play the 49ers and Cardinals twice, Wilson could probably be a serviceable starter, certainly better than Kaepernick was last year. But for every huge game he has against New Orleans, he’s still due for those single-digit duds, of which he had five last season.
Carson Palmer
Where he’ll be drafted: 10th round or later
Where you should take him: Ditto
Like Rivers, Palmer bailed me out of some hell last season, as he made for an excellent spot starter when he wasn’t playing the Seahawks or 49ers. He’ll make for a great backup this year, as I (and a billion others) think Michael Floyd will take his next step.
Robert Griffin III
Where he’ll be drafted: Probably around the 6th or 7th
Where you should take him: In the 8th, nestled in a hamster ball filled with and surrounded by bubble wrap
I’m not touching RG3 unless he falls into my lap around the 10th round, and even then I’ll be terrified of having him as my starter. I don’t care how many receivers he has now.
The Annas
These are the backups – the younger siblings or the irrelevant characters. Draft them as backups or leave them on waivers. They shall only become queens if the better QBs are locked away in a castle, or whatever the plot of that overrated movie was.
Ryan Tannehill
Where he’ll be drafted: Really late
Where you should take him: Really late
As the resident UPROXX Miami Dolphins fan, I don’t ever draft Dolphins players because of superstitions and all that nonsense. I do, however, think that Tanny and his receivers are going to click on a big level this season, and since the Dolphins will be trailing in most games, that makes Tanny an intriguing sleeper option. He did, after all, have a nice 7-game stretch of double-digits last season, which included a Week 15 total of 27 points that knocked me out of the playoffs. But he also followed that up with a 1-point sh*t show against Buffalo. Pick at your own peril.
Sam Bradford
Where he’ll be drafted: Really, really late
Where you should take him: Should you take him?
Bradford’s career is on the line this year, as another injury or just a bad season will relegate him to a life of holding a clipboard for hundreds of thousands of dollars each season for the next 10 years. Haha, what a sucker chump life that would be. As far as his fantasy outlook, he has the makings of an offense to succeed in, but he’s going to have to really spread it around to his underwhelming WRs to put up great fantasy numbers.
Joe Flacco
Where he’ll be drafted: 10th round or later
Where you should take him: When you still need a backup in the 14th round, and you didn’t take one earlier because you’re really high on Storm Johnson’s chances to crack the Jags’ starting lineup
I keep thinking Torrey Smith is going to become this massive star on offense, and I don’t know if he’s just not good enough to do it every week or if it’s because Flacco is just too average. Even with Steve Smith, Dennis Pitta and Marlon Brown to fill out a solid receiving corps, I can’t take Flacco seriously. What the Ravens need to do is start my guy Kamar Aiken. Or trade him to the Jaguars so he can play with Blake Bortles.
Chad Henne
Where he’ll be drafted: He won’t
Where you should take him: You shouldn’t
Speaking of my boy Bortles, Henne’s actually in a pretty unique situation. He basically gets to play his ass off to lead the Jags to victory now so he can prove to the rest of the league that he should be taken seriously as a starter. That won’t happen, not in a million years. But the cool thing for him is that unless he’s absolutely awful or Jadeveon Clowny takes his spine out with a blind side hit, he won’t lose the starting job to Bortles, because the Jags are listening to my advice and not playing the rookie this year. As for what that means in fantasy, Henne closed out 2013 with five consecutive 13+ point performances, so if Jacksonville’s new receivers can get healthy, he might be a serviceable backup.
EJ Manuel
Where he’ll be drafted: Maybe around the 10th by some overzealous stat hound who thinks he knows something that you don’t
Where you should take him: Off the waivers after Week 1 or 2
I think the Bills are going to be sneaky good this year, and they might actually win the AFC East. The fun part of not being an expert in any sense of the word is that you can make fun of me for saying that and I don’t care, because who the hell am I anyway? It’s going to depend on Manuel’s health and how he connects with Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods, but also on which CJ Spiller shows up.
Josh McCown
Where he’ll be drafted: 13th round
Where you should take him: To a dinner at Hooters, because he looks like a bro who digs wings and ass, BRO
I don’t usually condone two things: 1) Taking three QBs and 2) Taking a Tampa QB. McCown breaks both of those rules if you have an extra reserve spot and you took a great QB early on (in which case he could be your backup, but that could lead to a bye week issue, and you are in this to have a perfect season, mother f*ckers.)
Fairy Godmother: Ben Roethlisberger
Where he’ll be drafted: 10th-ish round
Where you should take him: 10th-ish round
Bibbidi-bobbidi-boo the hell is he throwing to aside from Antonio Brown? Is this the year that Darrius Heyward-Bey does something? Can Lance Moore stay healthy for once? Normally, a team likes to surround an aging, beat up QB with more and more help, but with the exception of what could be a 150 reception season for Brown, Big Ben is going to need a body like Nebula’s in Guardians of the Galaxy. (Except not exactly like it, because that would be creepy.)
The Boos
These are the young guys who I don’t expect to have any value in fantasy. I could be wrong, because I usually am, but they really shouldn’t be drafted.
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Geno Smith
Jake Locker
I know Locker’s not a rookie, but he has barely played, so he still has as much to prove. Now, if you’re a fan of one of those teams and you come here all pissed off because I’m not showing respect, I’m inviting you to draft your guy and then come back for my Fantasy Football Support Group each week and let me know how it goes. They could be great for all we know, but I ain’t going all-in on ‘em.
The Ursula the Sea Witch: Tony Romo
Where he’ll be drafted: Around the 10th round by a Cowboys fan who brags about the steal of the draft
Where you should take him: When you watch someone take Tom Brady or Philip Rivers and a white light appears with a vision of your season with Matt Schaub
Whenever you’ve hit the edge of the cliff, and you’re facing Romo while the rocky shore is hundreds of feet beneath you, decorated with the mangled bodies of Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford, that’s when Romo is at his most appealing. Even if you took Dez Bryant in the first or second round, chances are you’ll try to grab a QB with actual upside well before it’s time to say that classic fantasy football phrase: “F*ck it, I’ll take Romo.” Whatever, you’re guaranteed one awesome week.
The Bambi’s Mom: Eli Manning
Where he’ll be drafted: Around the 10th round by a Giants fan who brags about the steal of the draft
Where you should take him: Off the waiver wire
Somewhere around Week 3, after he has a somewhat decent game, you’re going to think, “Here it comes, he’s turning it around” and you’ll pick up Eli. You’ll drop him after Week 4.
Honorable mentions: Matt Schaub and Ryan Fitzpatrick. You know what you’re getting from them.
Please join me next year for my 5,000-word opus: “How Blake Bortles is Poised to Change the Fantasy Football Game for the Next 20 Years.”
