UFC Fight Night 50 Predictions: Jacare Vs. Mousasi

Hello again, fight friends! UFC Fight Night 50 is here, beginning with the Fox Sports 1 prelims at 7 PM ET and followed by the main card, also on Fox Sports 1 at 10 PM ET, so you know what that means: PICKS!!! Hopefully the entire card doesn’t fall apart like UFC 177 did last weekend.

Important Standings of Note:

Jessica: 193-112-2 (63%)
Burnsy: 191-113-3 (62%)
Vince: 113-63-1 (64%)
Danny: 156-73-1 (68%)
Spilled: 41-29 (59%)
Sydnie: 16-12 (57%)
Rini: 18-7 (72%)
NY Ric: 36-26-1 (57%)
Ghost: 6-7 (46%)

Featherweight – Sean Soriano vs Chas “The Scrapper” Skelly

Jessica: I’m going with Skelly by second round submission because dude’s on a 13-day turnaround and that kind of insanity should be rewarded.

Danny: Soriano

Burnsy: Holy crap, I was just about to make a joke about how Chas Skelly sounds like a dick fratty movie villain name and I realized that I JUST MADE THAT JOKE. How is this guy fighting so soon? Balls, that how. Still, I’m taking Soriano.

Bantamweight – Chris “The Real Deal” Beal vs Tateki “Tech” Matsuda

Jessica: Beal’s got wrestling and I don’t think Matsuda’s good enough on the ground to avoid being smothered and controlled. Beal takes this by decision.

Danny: Beal

Burnsy: If he’s The Real Deal, then I should pick him.

Middleweight – Rafael “Sapo” Natal vs Chris Camozzi

Jessica: Good ol’ Tennis Reference Natal, he rarely lets me down, unlike Ini Camozzi and his absolute refusal to walk out to “Here Comes the Hotstepper.” Natal wins by first round submission.

Danny: Natal

Burnsy: Natal all day. Jessica already pointed out why we refuse to pick Camozzi.

Lightweight – “Raging” Al Iaquinta vs Rodrigo Damm

Jessica: It takes a special fighter for me to not back a Serra/Longo guy, and Damm damn sure ain’t one of them. Iaquinta is going to box up Rodrigo and stop him by punches in the second.

Danny: Iaquinta

Burnsy: I feel like I always pick Iaquinta, so I’m going with him based on that. Whatever, you have fights on a Friday night and this is the level of science you get from me.

Flyweight – John Moraga vs Justin “Tank” Scoggins

Jessica: TANK! He’s had some problems against grindy-style wrestlers, but Moraga’s more of a “I know how to wrestle, sure, but I would prefer to kickbox upon you”. Which is too bad, since Scoggins is a pretty good strikes, too. Scoggins wins by third round TKO

Danny: Moraga has a lot of offensive power, but his defense is lacking. Scoggins may need a little more time to develop based on his last performance against Dustin Ortiz, but he should have the edge here. His pacing and aggressiveness should keep Moraga on his heels. As long as he avoids the big haymaker, Scoggins takes the UD.

Burnsy: I’ll take Scoggins, too. I want to get ballsy with my picks, but this card seems very straightforward.

Featherweight – Nik “The Carny” Lentz vs Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira

UPDATE: This fight has been scrapped because Oliveira had an illness. But I (Burnsy) am going to leave my colleagues’ picks so I can write “POOP” as mine.

Jessica: Rematch time! Two grappley dudes going at it here, but I’m not expecting a ton of tepid kickboxing. Nah, I’m thinking this fight is going to be Egg Convention 2014: Scramble-Palooza with a ton of ground fighting. Do Bronx slips on a third round sub, which makes me kind of sad since I really like Lentz’s doggies.

Danny: Oliveira is slightly better at everything than Lentz. The skill difference isn’t that great, but Oliveira just has more tools at his disposal. Lentz will eventually relent under Oliveira’s attack and fall victim to the second round submission.

Burnsy: POOP.

Lightweight – Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon vs Michael “Maverick” Chiesa

Jessica: Baby Joe beat cancer, so I’m going to do something stupid and say the good times continue in the Lauzon family as Papa Joe wins by second round submission.

Danny: Chiesa isn’t particularly great at any one skill, but he knows how to win. Maybe there’s some power in his tufts of facial and body hair (maybe one day I’ll know what it’s like to have such powerful follicles). Having said that, I’m going with Lauzon. He’ll connect with more punches on the feet, and take advantage of a stunned Chiesa to ride out the rest of the round. Lauzon by decision.

Burnsy: I, too, will take Lauzon, because again, this isn’t a very tough card to pick favorites from.

Heavyweight – Matt “Meathead” Mitrione vs Derrick “Black Beast” Lewis

Jessica: This isn’t in terms of skill, but in terms of likablilty, Lewis is probably my number two heavyweight, while Mitrione is just a pile of shit. Lewis takes off Matt’s head in the first with a humongous hook and I celebrate by laughing and laughing.

Danny: Prep your white guilt, because “The Black Beast” is back in the Octagon. Mitrione has KO power and above average speed for a heavyweight. He still hasn’t learned how to tuck his chin when he’s punching, though. Despite that, he should pick up the win here. Lewis may have won his last two fights by KO, but he doesn’t throw a lot of volume with his strikes and just plods along the cage. Mitrione by first round TKO.

Burnsy: Our Derrick Lewis love affair continues with a win over Meathead.

Heavyweight – Alistair “The Reem” Overeem vs Ben Rothwell

Jessica: I don’t know if I can ever forgive Overeem for that terrible fight he had with Frank Mir. Rothwell is a doughy dad-type fighter, and those guys are usually the best. Rothwell wins by miracle third round TKO comeback, just like he taught his son, Tim Boetsch.

Danny: It would be great to see Rothwell do his little berserker dance in the Octagon again. It would also be great for him to tell the story about how he beat the crap out of a Taco Bell employee (true story). Unfortunately, neither one of those things will happen. Overeem may have upset Dana White with his last performance, but I welcome the smarter, more responsible Overeem. Now if only he didn’t do it to teammates…

The Reem takes the second round TKO.

Burnsy: I’m picking Overeem because I want him to start being very good at both fighting and passing drug tests so he can help make the heavyweights more fun.

Middleweight – Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs Gegard “The Dreamcatcher” Mousasi

Jessica: On one hand, we have a nonplussed, sleepy European kickboxer that was once out-wrestled by Keith Jardine. On the other, we have a gator chomp-n-crawl celebrating BJJ whiz that’s discovered his hands pack some power. Mousasi is pretty good, but I like Souza way too much to not blindly pick him. Souza wins by third round submission.

Danny: I keep going back and forth on this one. Jacare has really rounded his game out and is starting to hurt people with his striking. Mousasi may not have the best wrestling defense, but he has an active guard and can be a threat to submit. The difference maker on this fight is footwork. I think that Mousasi struggles when he was to be the aggressor and does a better job as a counter fighter. Jacare’s forward movement will play right into his hands and Mousasi will counter strike effectively. He may give up a couple takedowns, but he’ll still win the majority of the round. Mousasi by decision.

Burnsy: I’ve really enjoyed watching Jacare beat everyone, so I’m picking him to keep his win streak alive.