Hey there, punch-friends. UFC Fight Night 65 is almost here, starting at 7:45 p.m. EST on Fight Pass. It’s actually a Fight Pass exclusive card, so make sure those subscriptions (or free trials) are up to date. This time, we are joined by Melanie Gale, who also writes at Womens MMA with occasional picks contributor Sydnie Jones. Hi, Melanie! There’s no time to waste, so let’s dive into the fight predictions!
Important Standings of Note:
Jessica: 371-246-4 (60 percent)
Burnsy: 387-229-5 (63 percent)
Vince: 189-115-2 (62 percent)
Ryan: 8-2-1 (77 percent)
Danny: 161-77-1 (67 percent)
Spilled: 76-56-2 (57 percent)
Sydnie: 16-12 (57 percent)
Chris: 39-12-1 (76 percent)
NY Ric: 36-26-1 (57 percent)
Ghost: 6-7 (46 percent)
Seth: 32-15 (68 percent)
Biss: 41-39-1 (51 percent)
Jared: 32-13 (71 percent)
Flyweight – Alptekin “The Turkish Delight” Ozkilic vs Ben Nguyen
Jessica: You might not recognize the name Ben Nguyen, but he’s the guy on the victorious side of the above video. Ozkilic’s last few performances haven’t been the greatest, so sadly, I must part ways with the Turkish Delight. Ben for the Nguyen by second-round TKO.
Jared: Ben When (‘Murican spelling) is perhaps best known for delivering Liam-Neeson levels of justice to a quote-unquote “tattooed bully” in a recent fight, the video of which has since gone viral. So we know the kid has some hands. But if Alptekin Ozkilic could withstand John Lineker’s murderfists for three rounds before finally crumbling, I think he’ll be able to deal with the newbie’s power and outmuscle him en route to a decision.
Burnsy: Two losses in a row for Mr. Delight is bad news for any fighter, and his opponent in this fight falls under one of my most crucial prediction rules: If the fighter’s first and last names rhyme, he wins. Get it, Ben.
Vince: A flyweight undercard fight? My heart says, ‘Who cares?’ but my brain says (*fart sound*). Vegas odds favor Ozkilic. Let’s go with him. Bold move, I know.
Welterweight – Vik “The Spartan” Grujic vs Brendan “The Badger” O’Reilly
Jessica: Hoo boy. Neither dude has had good performances in the UFC so far. I guess I’ll give the edge to Grujic because he hasn’t lost to Lipeng Zhang and he doesn’t have those stupid side burns O’Reilly has. Plus, Grujic’s lone UFC win was against fellow Aussie Chris Indich. Grujic wins by decision.
Jared: Who in the hell are these guys? O’Reilly.
Burnsy: With so many damned Spartan nicknames in the UFC lately, it’s hard for me to keep track of them. I am taking O’Reilly here, but only because he makes me want to use this GIF:
Vince: Hmm, guy who lost to Zhang Lipeng or guy who lost to Chris Clements? I guess I’ll take Grujic.
Strawweight – Alex “Astro Girl” Chambers vs Kailin Curran
Jessica: Chambers has only ever lost by submission, something I don’t see happening against Curran. I’m also a fan of Chambers, despite her getting roughly 12 seconds of screen time on TUF 20. Curran’s last outing wasn’t that great, though it was against current It Girl, Paige VanZant. With all of that into consideration, I’m taking Chambers to win a decision victory.
Melanie: Chambers by TKO.
Jared: Curran may have been overwhelmed by Paige VanZant in her UFC debut, but she also had a lot more to offer VanZant than a seasoned veteran like Felice Herrig did. She’s a legitimate prospect in a thin division is what I’m saying, and should thoroughly overwhelm the likes of Chambers.
Burnsy: Chambers is 36 and Curran is 24. I don’t typically like to rely on age to make my picks, but in this case it’s Exhibit A. Curran wins.
Vince: Using my magic eight ball once again (aka Vegas odds), I’ll take the slight favorite, Curran. Though we should note that Curran trains out of Reign, which Mark Muñoz just sold, so you have to wonder if she got a full camp in.
Middleweight – Dylan “The Villain” Andrews vs Bradley “Bear” Scott
Jessica: Andrews might be on a two-fight losing streak, but there were some shenanigans in those bouts. I assumed Scott was a new member of the UFC, but he’s apparently had three fights, which shows how memorable he’s been. I’ll take Andrews to bounce back, and in a big way. Dylan gets a second-round KO.
Jared: Far be it for me to pick a guy who knocked himself out in his last fight (a la Matt Linldand or Gray Maynard), but… I’m going with the guy who knocked himself out in his last fight.
Burnsy: I haven’t picked a fight based strictly on nicknames in a while, but Bradley Bear sounds like a lovable cartoon character. Dylan the Villain reminds me of Snidely Whiplash, so he gets the win.
Vince: Dylan Andrews seems a lot better a fighter than his record would indicate. Does he finally stop underachieving against an opponent with no picture in his Sherdog profile? I say yes.
Strawweight – “Rowdy” Bec Rawlings vs Lisa Ellis
Jessica: I think Ellis is slightly better than Rawlings, but with how terrible my predictions have been, I’m doubting myself a lot. Whatever, I’ll take Ellis to submit Bec in the third.
Melanie: Rawlings by decision.
Jared: Oh, “Rowdy” Bec, what has become of you? It seems that just yesterday you were the lovable, dorky queen of the UG, but ever since TUF 20, you have done your damndest to come off as an unlikable, mean-spirited troll who spends more time posting photos to Instagram than training take-down defense. You’ve been hanging out with the wrong crowd, Bec, by which I of course mean Angela Magana. Magana is the worst, and worse yet, she’s dragging you down with her. When you finish beating up on poor, sweet Lisa Ellis, I beg of you to reconsider this heel angle you’ve decided upon. It is not a good look for you.
Your friend from afar and former fan,
Jared
Burnsy: Something has to click for Rawlings here or she’s going to be done before she has a chance to click send on her next dumb tweet. I think she gets the win and fuels up her trash-talking tank for another few months.
Vince: Good old Rowdy Bec seems long on attitude and short on fighting ability these days. Taking on a wrestler from Washington? Yeah, I’m going to buck my own go-with-the-Vegas-favorite strategy here and take Lisa Ellis.
Middleweight – Dan Kelly vs “Smile’N” Sam Alvey
Jessica: Kelly is at a big reach disadvantage, which is going to make it tough for him close the distance and get some of those Man Grabs he’s so good at. Alvey smiles and punches his way to a decision win.
Jared: Alvey is being WAY overvalued here, but I still like him to box up Kelly – whose fight with Patrick Walsh at FN 60 is my clear frontrunner for “Worst of the Year” – while grinning all the while.
Burnsy: I’ve always liked Alvey and I barely know a thing about Kelly, so I’m going to throw science and intelligence out the window and pick Alvey as the obvious choice.
Vince: No one in the world is better than Sam Alvey at looking like utter doughy horsesh*t until he lands some Donkey Kong one-punch KO. Meanwhile Dan Kelly has gone undefeated in nine fights as boring as his name. Alvey.
Welterweight – Kyle “KO” Noke vs Jonavin “The Spider” Webb
Jessica: Noke’s OK, but he hasn’t won since 2012, and that was against human punching bag Charlie Brenneman. I don’t know anything about Webb, other than he hasn’t lost, so I’ll stupidly, blindly ride that. Webb wins by decision.
Jared: It’s sh*t or get off the pot time for Noke, and this matchup looks like a pretty clear set-up to introduce a blue-chip prospect like Webb to a greater audience. I hate to say it, but hometown advantage won’t be enough for Noke here.
Burnsy: This is a gimme fight for Noke, which is odd because I have no clue why he deserves a gimme fight. So just for poops and gigs, I’m going with Webb.
Vince: I don’t know much about this Spider Webb guy, but he hasn’t really beaten anyone and looks to be giving up a lot of size to Noke, who’s always been well-rounded, if unspectacular. Noke.
Featherweight – Hatsu “Iron Broom” Hioki vs Dan “The Hangman” Hooker
Jessica: Hioki has struggled mightily against the wrestlers of the featherweight division, but I don’t put Hooker’s grappling on the level of Lamas, Guida, or Elkins. I think Hioki will have an advantage on the ground and snag himself a second-round submission win.
Jared: It’s hard to believe there was actually a time Hioki was granted a title shot against Jose Aldo. It’s even harder to believe he turned it down, and has subsequently lost four out of his past five. That said, I don’t know who Daniel Hooker is, so uh, Hioki.
Burnsy: I just don’t like Hioki at this point. He’s been nothing but disappointing in his last five fights, even if he did beat Ivan Menjivar last year. I’m feeling ballsy with these picks, so my money is on Hooker, as opposed to it usually being in one’s hands. Thank you, that’s the kind of MMA expertise mixed with humor that you can expect from me.
Vince: Hioki has certainly had the tougher opponents, though he tends to get beat by them. Still, I never trust a non-American vs. a grappler. Hioki.
Lightweight – Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews vs James “The Texicutioner” Vick
Jessica: I think Vick is going to be too freakishly long for Matthews to deal with. I get the feeling he’s used to stumpy dudes, and that’s what will give him his first-ever loss. Vick wins by gangly decision.
Jared: Well, since James Vick is still proudly flying the Lloyd Irvin flag, I cannot in good conscience vote for him, regardless of who he’s matched up against. Seriously, f*ck Lloyd Irvin. Repeatedly. Against his will.
Burnsy: Hello, what do we have here? Is this a battle of two young, exciting and undefeated fighters? You bet your ass it is, so it’s time for me to decide which of these young men will remain undefeated, because I am the world’s foremost expert on this. I’m sticking with Vick because he beat my boy Nick Hein back in November to become my new “my boy,” of which I have many. In fact, one day I might start my own fight team and call it My Boys. And they’ll learn nothing and lose every fight, because all I know is how to curl up in a ball and scream, “STOPPPPPPPP!” So yeah, Vick wins.
Vince: Sweet, a fight worth watching. Both these guys are solid, and well-rounded, but Vick is crazy long for a lightweight, and has had tougher opponents. Vick.
Light Heavyweight – Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh vs Sean “The Real OC” O’Connell
Jessica: In perhaps my most in-depth analysis ever, both guys win half of their fights via punch-kicks, and both have been knocked bout by Ryan Jimmo. I’m giving the edge to Perosh, even though he got sparked out in seven seconds, because hippos are way cooler than anything Orange County has ever created. Perosh wins with a second-round KO.
Jared: No joke, Anthony Perosh is my favorite fighter in the UFC right now and has been for some time. His nickname? Flawless. His 14-second knockout of that trash-talking youngster Vinny Magalhaes? One of my favorite fights of all time. Perosh may be up there in years, but his grit, slick ground game, and general Australian-ness make him a threat to anyone at 205 lbs. I don’t see O’Connell having the power to repeat what Ryan Jimmo did to Perosh, so I’ll take my boy Hippo by first-round sub.
Burnsy: Danger Guerrero’s all-time favorite TV show is The OC, and I absolutely hated that show, so whenever he brings it up, I remind him that it was the worst and then we fight for a few minutes. So I won’t pick O’Connell because of that. #SCIENCE
Vince: I love rooting for a guy who looks like he’s at least two decades too old to be fighting. Honestly, Perosh may be the least tough-looking man ever to fight in the UFC. I don’t know who Sean O’Connell is. Perosh.
Middleweight – Brad Tavares vs Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker
Jessica: Whittaker impressed and surprised me when he beat Clint Hester, so screw it, I’m going all in with The Reaper. Whittaker is going to land some good shots and stop Tavares in the second with a TKO.
Jared: A tough call, but Tavares has faced the better competition and should be able to grind out one of his patented forgettable decisions.
Burnsy: This is a coin flip, but I think and hope that Whittaker is starting to find his groove. He has great TKO power, so I’m hoping for one of those against Tavares, who lost to Tim Boetsch, whose last name sounds like a violent honk. I always have to throw that in there when I have a chance.
Vince: This one’s tough to pick, not least because these guys totally remind me of each other. Whittaker is coming off two impressive wins, but Tavares is definitely a step up in competition. This one is a coin flip. Tavares.
Heavyweight – Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt vs Stipe Miocic
Jessica: MAAAAAAARRRRRRK HUNNNNTOOOOOO! First-round, devastating, walk-off knockout, with one hand raised in victory, the other hand hitching up his shorts. When asked about his performance, Mark will say “yeah, it’s alright” and my heart will smile for days.
Jared: Everything in my gut says to go with Miocic, who should hold a decisive speed advantage over the battle-worn Hunt, but if you think I’m going to pick against one of the last true legends of this sport, think again. I’ll gladly take the L if it means staying true to who I am, and who I am is an unabashed PRIDE mark.
Burnsy: I’m taking Hunt, not because I dislike Miocic or even think he’s the worse fighter, but because Hunt will do what Roy Nelson should have done. The fan favorite will beat Miocic and get a title shot in a division that is just lousy right now. Hunt will probably lose a terribly boring fight to Fabricio Werdum, but the lead-in will be amazing because we all want Hunt to be the UFC Heavyweight Champion, damn it. And I’ll still pick Hunt when that time comes.
Vince: Hunt by spectacular knockout or Miocic outworking him for the decision? Those are the only possible outcomes in my mind. You know what I want to see. Hunt.
Performance of the Night
Jessica: Hunt, Hioki
Burnsy: Whittaker, Perosh
Fight of the Night
Jessica: Chambers vs. Curran
Burnsy: Tavares vs. Whittaker
