2016-17 Record: 41-41 (8th in East)
This is absolutely a risky pick but, given the roster, there isn’t an obvious choice. Dwyane Wade is, quite obviously, the most established player in Chicago but there is plenty of buzz about the future Hall of Fame guard seeking a buyout. He is probably the “right answer” if guaranteed to play 60-plus games in a Bulls uniform but that would be very difficult to bank on given the publicly available information combined with common sense. Couple that uncertainty with the lack of punch up and down the squad and you can reasonably land on a player recovering from a torn ACL as the team’s MVP.
LaVine’s suffered the injury in February and there is some excitement about his potential return coming (very) close to the start of the 2017-2018 campaign. If that happens, there is every reason to think that the hyper-athletic 22-year-old can hit the ground running. In 47 games before going down a year ago, LaVine averaged 18.9 points per game while posting a highly respectable 58 percent true shooting mark. There are still questions about LaVine’s overall impact given his less than stellar defensive performance and sometimes uneven play-making, but the former Slam Dunk Contest winner presents real upside and, on the offensive end, is already an established entity.
LaVine would also be a good answer to this question given that he arguably presents the highest future upside on the roster. Still, it is the “other” high-end entity acquired in exchange for Jimmy Butler that gets the nod and, well, it isn’t Kris Dunn.
The Bulls went out on a limb in selecting Markkanen ahead of the likes of Dennis Smith Jr. in the 2017 NBA Draft, and they were roundly criticized for the pick. Smith Jr. certainly would have been a more popular pick with higher traditional upside, but the former Arizona big man has flashed in a big way during EuroBasket and Markkanen’s skill set is one of a kind. As a legitimate seven-footer, the 20-year-old brings a dynamic ability to stretch opposing defenses, both as a stand-still shooter and as the (extremely) rare prospect that can also shoot on the move at that size.
To be fair, the rest of his game is something of a question mark, and that is where things get dicey. Can Markannen function as a real deterrent defensively? Is he athletic enough to play effectively at the power forward spot in today’s NBA? Uncertainty abounds but the upcoming season will be highly focused on the future and that means a lot of attention and emphasis paid to the No. 7 pick in the most recent draft.
The Bulls have the lowest Las Vegas over/under win total in the entire NBA and there is a reason for that. In short, Chicago’s roster doesn’t appear ready to seriously challenge for a playoff spot in 2017-2018 and that impacts what a “best case scenario” actually looks like. If you squint hard enough, you can see a future that includes one final ride from Wade, a fully healthy LaVine, the re-signing of Nikola Mirotic and real development from players like Markkanen and Dunn. Even if that were to happen, though, the ceiling is firmly defined… which brings us to what Bulls fans should be rooting for this season.
Yes, development of the young pieces is paramount for the future but, at the end of the day, it would be good for this edition of the Bulls to lose early and often. Chicago doesn’t necessarily have to finish with the league’s worst record but, frankly, it wouldn’t hurt and this is a team that desperately needs the infusion of talent that would come with the arrival of a player like Michael Porter Jr., Marvin Bagley III, or European standout Luka Doncic.
This, like the best case scenario before it, is a two-pronged evaluation. The doomsday scenario is probably a campaign that features LaVine’s continued struggles with health, an ugly debut from Markkanen and the confirmation that Dunn is not, in fact, a foundational piece in the backcourt. On the bright side, that would almost definitely result in the Bulls finishing with quite a few ping-pong balls but, ultimately, there is only so much one prospect can do and Chicago is tied to several of the young pieces currently on the roster.
The other nightmare would be, as noted above, a situation in which the Bulls prioritized winning games in 2017-2018 over the future. That would include Wade finishing the season on the roster, operating everything offensively and playing 30 minutes per game. Beyond that, Markkanen might not be one of the best frontcourt options available and, if Fred Hoiberg and company are worried about winning, it could be a lot of Robin Lopez, Bobby Portis and even Mirotic (if available) ahead of the young rookie.
Organizationally, it makes very little sense for the Bulls to even attempt to win 30 games this season but, if they do and it comes at the expense of the young guys, it would be a very bad look in Chicago.
