2017-18 Record: 48-34 (4th in the Western Conference)
Players Added: Dennis Schröder (trade), Nerlens Noel (free agency), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (trade), Hamidou Diallo (draft), Abdel Nader (trade)
Players Lost: Carmelo Anthony (trade), Nick Collison (retirement), Corey Brewer (free agency), Kyle Singler (waived), Josh Huestis (free agency), Dakari Johnson (free agency)
Projected Team MVP: Russell Westbrook
Paul George re-signing in Oklahoma City was huge in keeping expectations high for the Thunder and, most likely, keeping their postseason streak alive and well for the foreseeable future. However, this team is still Russell Westbrook’s team, and George is well aware of that — it’s part of the reason he stayed.
The Thunder go as Westbrook goes, to an extent, and when he’s at his best, they’re as tough an out as any team in the league. The question this year is whether they can form a more consistent identity on offense instead of reverting back to “Russ being Russ” when things get tight. That works sometimes, but the George and Westbrook era will be a much more fruitful venture if there’s a system in place to take advantage of both players’ skill sets. Perhaps the departure of Carmelo Anthony will help in that, but in any case, this is the top priority for Billy Donovan this offseason on the offensive end.
X-Factor: Andre Roberson
Paul George is important, for sure, as is Dennis Schröder as the new backup point guard, but as we learned last year, there may not be a single more important player to the Thunder beyond Russ than Roberson. When Roberson went down, the Thunder were among the league’s best defenses when he was on the floor and among the league’s worst when he wasn’t. When he was lost for the season, most expected the Thunder’s defensive numbers to improve compared to his off-court numbers, but stunningly, that wasn’t the case.
OKC was dominant defensively with Roberson and George on the court together, and it was apparent in their postseason matchup with the Jazz that he could’ve been very helpful in dealing with Donovan Mitchell and company. This season, Roberson will start the season sidelined once again, but provided he returns to play for the majority of the season and the playoffs, the Thunder should be an improved and much more dangerous team come April, provided he’s back to full strength.
Best Case Scenario: We find out Anthony’s late addition last year was the problem with the Thunder’s chemistry on offense, and George and Westbrook thrive without the squeaky third wheel attached. Roberson returns and, once integrated back into the lineup, fully helps the Thunder’s defense return to elite levels. Dennis Schröder is the defender many thought he could be early in his career and is able to bolster an improved bench unit and no longer leak leads when Westbrook leaves the floor.
With those improvements and a bit of a slide in Houston, the 55-win Thunder win the division and the No. 2 or 3 seed out West (Utah pending). They cruise through their first round matchup and exact revenge on the Jazz in the semifinals, meeting the Warriors, coming off a tough semifinals series with Houston, in the conference finals. Oklahoma City pushes the series to six or seven games, and suddenly it’s the Thunder who appear to be the team built to finally topple the Warriors once Kevin Durant leaves over the summer.
Worst Case Scenario: Roberson isn’t the same when he returns, and as such, the defense is never able to fire on all cylinders the way it did at its peak. The Thunder don’t make strides offensively and continue to rely on Russ hero ball in big moments. Schröder looks like he did last year in Atlanta and can’t help stem the tide when Westbrook needs rest, leading to Russ having to play major minutes throughout the season again. Oklahoma City ends up as the fifth or sixth seed in the West and loses in the first round for the second straight year, leading to more questions about the George and Westbrook pairing as a viable duo to build a contender around.
