Trade season in the NBA officially opened this weekend, as players signed over the summer became trade-eligible on December 15, and we got our first flurry of action with Dennis Schröder being dealt from Brooklyn to Golden State and Thomas Bryant being traded from Miami to Indiana.
Those were the appetizers to trade season, and at least three of those four teams figure to remain active through the Feb. 6 trade deadline. This is the first trade season under the new CBA’s apron rules, and nine teams find themselves above either the first (Sixers, Nuggets, Lakers, Knicks, Heat) or second (Suns, Timberwolves, Celtics, Bucks) apron currently. The five first apron teams cannot take back more money than they send out in a trade, while the four second apron teams also can’t combine salaries to make a trade happen. Those restrictions make it more difficult to pull off trades, particularly for the teams over the second apron, and we’ll have to wait and see how much of a damper apron limitations put on trade activity.
While most trades will be on the margins (or with cap numbers in mind), there do figure to be some big swings taken over the next two months as teams jockey for position in the playoff race. Out West, there are 12 teams above-.500 currently, meaning an awful lot of teams can talk themselves into being just one or two pieces away from contention. On the other side, just seven teams are above-.500 in the East, which will force a lot of teams to consider being sellers. With that in mind, we wanted to highlight nine teams that figure to play a pivotal role in trade season drama, either as buyers or sellers.
Miami Heat
We will start with the Heat, who, despite being one of the few teams with a winning record in the East, are facing the prospect of being sellers at the deadline. That’s because there isn’t a clear future with star forward Jimmy Butler and trade rumors are swirling about where he may end up. The Heat already dealt Thomas Bryant to Indiana to provide a touch of roster flexibility, and after swiftly shutting down Butler rumors this summer, this time, it feels more likely than not that Butler will finish his season outside Miami.
As one of the first apron teams, the Heat have to avoid taking back more than they send out in a Butler deal, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a third team get pulled in to make money work. The two biggest questions for a potential Butler deal are: What can they get back for a 35-year-old star on an expiring deal? Will Miami look to make even more moves to reset their timeline?
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are considered one of the frontrunners to land Butler and have been desperately trying to trade for a star since this summer. Even after a hot start, the expectation was at some point, the team would go back on the hunt for a second star to put next to Stephen Curry, and their recent downturn has only accelerated the process. Butler is the biggest name on the known market — and he would certainly make sense for this Warriors team’s needs and their timeline — but they figure to be in play for any star that comes available.
The question for the Warriors is what they’re willing to give up to make an all-in move (and who they think is worth such a pursuit), particularly when it concerns their young players. Moses Moody can’t be traded after signing an extension this summer, but Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski are their best trade chips on the roster. They chose not to extend Kuminga, placing his long-term future in a bit of doubt (although they still can match any offer on him as a restricted free agent), and while Podziemski was considered nearly untouchable in summer trade talks, he has looked like a second-year player who might not quite be ready for a major role on a contender just yet. Their willingness to include one of those players could determine whether they succeed in their quest for another star or not.
Whether it’s to compete with a team flush with youngsters (like Houston) or as a separator from other contenders lacking young upside to include in a deal, the Warriors may have to finally say goodbye in full to the two timelines dream to build the contender they want right now.
Chicago Bulls
Zach LaVine is perpetually on the trade block and has shown a return to form now that he’s back healthy, but he’s not the only veteran in Chicago who could be on the move early in 2025. Nikola Vucevic is in the midst of his best season with the Bulls and has just one more year remaining on his deal in 2025-26 (worth just north of $21 million), making him one of the more intriguing options for teams seeking a big man who can add some offensive pop. The challenge for the Bulls in moving LaVine is that he makes a ton of money and still has multiple years left on his deal, which has led teams to balk at giving up anything of real value, but that shouldn’t be as big of a concern with Vucevic. The good news for Chicago is both have looked as good as they have in a couple of years to start this season and if there were ever a time to get someone to bite for a decent return, it’s now.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have been one of the league’s best stories to start the 24-25 season, rushing out to a 17-9 start that has them in a tie for third in the West. They have been an incredibly stout defensive team, but the offense could use some work if they want to be a real threat for a deep postseason run. They are, like the Warriors, on Jimmy Butler’s reported list of preferred destinations, and certainly have the ammunition to make an incredible trade offer for him should they choose. The challenge for the Rockets front office is twofold: First is whether they truly believe there is an upgrade available that makes them a legit contender, second is which of their youngsters they’ll deem untouchable in trade talks and which they’ll be willing to part with.
After signing Jalen Green and Alperen Sengün to extensions this offseason, we know those two won’t be part of any deals this season, but they have plenty more young talent to put together an interesting offer for any star that may become available. Amen Thompson would be on my personal “do not trade” list, but someone like Jabari Smith Jr., despite his considerable talents, might just not fit the long-term vision, especially with a payday due soon. It’s possible Houston just rides out this season to see where this young group can take them, but few teams are better positioned to make a big move than the Rockets. They just have to decide where their threshold is for pushing their chips all-in.
Brooklyn Nets
There is no doubt the Nets will be sellers over the next couple of months, and they’ve seen the trade stock for many of their players boosted by a surprisingly strong start to the season. They already flipped Schröder to the Warriors and figure to be nowhere close to done dealing. Dorian Finney-Smith should garner plenty of interest from contenders seeking some 3-and-D help on the wing, but the guy the rest of the league will be most interested in is Cam Johnson, who is having his best season as a pro by proving he can take on a higher usage role and thrive as one of the centerpieces of an offense. At 28 years old, he may be the kind of player a team like Houston prefers to chase over an aging star while the Nets further shift their attention to the future.
Beyond Johnson and DFS, Brooklyn figures to be open to listening to calls on just about anyone on the roster. They made their intentions for this summer clear when they used the return from the Mikal Bridges trade to get some of their own picks back from the Rockets, and I don’t think anyone on their roster is guaranteed to be part of their next long-term vision.
New Orleans Pelicans
While everyone knew the Nets would be sellers at the deadline, the Pelicans weren’t supposed to be in this position. However, a catastrophic run of injuries has them at the bottom of the West, and they already have a 9.5-game deficit on the 10-seed. That makes this a lost season, and the Pelicans have to decide how to proceed. They’ve been trying to trade Brandon Ingram since this summer, but like the Bulls and Zach LaVine, they’ve been finding it difficult to find a trade partner. While the issue with LaVine is that he has a bunch of years left on his deal, the problem with Ingram is he’s about to be a free agent and wants to get paid at a max (or at least near-max) level. Not many teams see him as worthy of that investment, especially if they have to give up assets to get him, which has led to a less-than-ideal situation in New Orleans. What will be fascinating is whether the Pelicans look to make other moves beyond Ingram (teams will undoubtedly be checking in on guys like Herb Jones) or if they think they can have a Grizzlies-like resurgence in 25-26 after a disastrous year of injury luck.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have been one of the NBA’s pleasant surprises of the early season, and while they aren’t world-beaters, the vibes in Atlanta are as high as they’ve been since that magical run to the conference finals. That makes this trade deadline fascinating for a team that was a potential seller but has things seemingly pointed in the right direction. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela were expected to be available, as they’re the lone players in the Hawks rotation over 30. De’Andre Hunter has been on the trade block for a couple of years now, but he’s suddenly enjoying the best season of his career and is a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Will the Hawks sell high on Hunter now that he finally has some real trade value? Will they look to ship Bogdanovic and Capela to contenders? Or, will they want to see where they can go this season with a top-6 seed in the East a real possibility?
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are another definite seller at the deadline, with a handful of veterans that will draw interest from around the league, but it’s still not clear how much Portland wants to sell off. Robert Williams III feels like a near lock to be on the move, as there are plenty of playoff teams that could use his defense and his contract ($12.5 million) is pretty easy to maneuver. The bigger questions for Portland are whether they can draw interest for Deandre Ayton, also very much available with the presence of rookie big man Donovan Clingan, and whether they listen intently on offers for Anfernee Simons and/or Jerami Grant. Portland’s path forward remains pretty murky, and this trade deadline could help bring some needed clarity.
Detroit Pistons
I don’t expect the Pistons to be at the center of any huge trades, but you can bet they’re going to get a ton of calls when it comes time to turn a two-team deal into a three-team trade. Detroit is the only team in the NBA currently below the salary cap, with ~$14 million in space, meaning they are primed to eat an expiring contract (or two) in exchange for some draft compensation to facilitate trades involving teams above or near the first apron line. With the restrictions on how much money teams can take back at that level, Detroit’s ability to take on salary should prove pretty valuable, and I’d expect the Pistons to pop up as a third team in at least one deal, if not a couple.
