NBA fans were treated to a pretty great weekend of playoff basketball as the first round of the 2023 postseason got underway with Game 1s in every series on Saturday and Sunday. There were a few duds, but for the most part we got competitive action and a few truly spectacular games, which is all we can really ask for.
As we get set to move forward in the first round, we wanted to take stock of the weekend and rank each series based how excited we are to watch the next 3-6 games based on what we saw in the opener.
8. Boston Celtics (1-0) vs. Atlanta Hawks (0-1)
Game 1 ended up not being the blowout we expected when the Celtics went up 74-44 at the half, but that still felt fairly representative of the talent gap between these two teams. Atlanta should shoot some better going forward, but they weren’t a particularly good three-point shooting team all season and also shot the third-fewest threes in the league. It’s tough to see how the Hawks make this a series if they are operating at a deficit in the three-point battle all series and Boston has the two best players overall in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Trae Young has to be a lot better than he was in the opener for things to turn around, but the Celtics have a number of players that do all of the things on defense that bother him and follow the script Miami used so successfully a year ago. The intrigue in this series seems mostly to be whether it’s a true sweep or just a gentleman’s sweep in favor of the Celtics.
7. Denver Nuggets (1-0) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (0-1)
The last of the first round games was also the most lopsided, as Denver blew the doors off of Minnesota in a 109-80 final. The Wolves could try to make the excuse of a Play-In hangover, but that’s a tough sell considering the Heat won their opener on the road against the Bucks coming off of the exact same rest schedule as Minnesota. While the Wolves aren’t 30 points worse than the Nuggets, it did feel like there is just a sizable gap between the two teams that Minnesota is going to have a really tough time closing down — particularly when you consider Nikola Jokic had a fairly pedestrian night and it didn’t matter. I’m not ready to guarantee this is a sweep, as the Wolves could shoot their way into a win somewhere, but with how sharp Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. looked in the opener, it’s hard to see Minnesota keeping pace for very long in this series.
6. Philadelphia 76ers (1-0) vs. Brooklyn Nets (0-1)
The Nets just have to work too hard just to keep things close. Mikal Bridges was sensational, but he can only do so much and doesn’t have enough help to overcome the amount of offensive talent the Sixers have at their disposal. That is doubly the case if Tobias Harris is going to shoot the ball like he did in Game 1, because when he’s rolling, there’s just not a lot you can do against this Sixers offense. Philly was outright bad finishing at the rim in the opener, a testament to the effort put in by the Nets to contest everything inside, but also probably just a weird outlier night for the Sixers. Their shooting was also hotter than it usually is, and while that will come back to earth some, it’s also a product of wide open shots courtesy of the Nets having to double team Embiid every time he touches it cause they don’t have anyone big enough to pretend to defend him 1-on-1. It’s all just a nightmare matchup for Brooklyn. While I enjoy watching them play because, truly, they work very hard on both ends and Bridges has become a tremendous scorer, it is very hard to see how they make Philly feel genuinely uncomfortable in this series.
5. Miami Heat (1-0) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (0-1)
This was not a series I anticipated being in this spot, but Miami came out red-hot in the opener and with Giannis Antetokounmpo now dealing with a back injury that knocked him out of Game 1, the outcome of this series no longer feels as a mere formality for the 1-seed. Now, Miami (probably) won’t shoot nearly as well as they did in the opener from three, but Jimmy Butler absolutely can take over consistently and if Bam Adebayo is willing to be assertive offensively when given space, as will be the case all series, they can have some success against this Milwaukee defense. On the other side, the Bucks looked pretty awful in the halfcourt aside from Khris Middleton, but that’s also not exactly new for them in the playoffs. Milwaukee should get better and I would expect they still win this series, but the likelihood of this thing dragging out to six or seven games is now much higher than originally expected.
4. Los Angeles Lakers (1-0) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (0-1)
I want to be clear that there is a fairly sizable gap between the 4 and 5 spots in these rankings, and that the top four all exist in their own tier. Ja Morant’s status looms large going forward after his hand injury in the fourth quarter of the opener, and if he misses significant time, that puts a serious damper on what has the makings of a tremendous series, which is what knocks this to the fourth spot.
Still, this has the potential to be a very fun first round series, with a young Grizzlies team looking to make a name for itself by knocking off LeBron James and the Lakers. In the opener, the Lakers were carried down the stretch by the unlikeliest of sources, as Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves combined for 52 points on the afternoon and 23 in the fourth quarter, as LeBron and Anthony Davis took a backseat. That was unforeseen, and it’ll be interesting to see if the Grizzlies adapt their defensive strategy at all or if they continue daring the Lakers others like Hachimura to knock down open shots as Jaren Jackson Jr. roams to dissuade Davis and James from driving.
On the other end, Memphis needs its shooters to be better. Desmond Bane (3-of-10) and Luke Kennard (1-of-4) were simply not good enough from deep, while Dillon Brooks was a willing shooter (2-of-9) to the delight of the Lakers. The positive takeaways for Memphis are that Jackson was tremendous offensively and the final score wasn’t indicative of how close things were before the Grizzlies started spiraling in the final three minutes. The reason this ends up A bounceback performance in Game 2, with or without Morant, is necessary, but if it happens we may be in for a long, very fun series.
3. New York Knicks (1-0) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (0-1)
Knicks-Cavs is some old-school Eastern Conference basketball, but with two backcourt stars capable of creating big buckets all on their own. Jalen Brunson and Donovan Mitchell have both moved East but still have once again found each other in the first round. Like last year between Dallas and Utah, they put on a show in the opener, with Brunson’s Knicks getting the edge on Mitchell’s Cavs in the opener.
How both teams adjust will be very interesting, because neither will feel like they had their best in the opener. Cleveland needs Darius Garland to get going, because he’s vital to creating for their frontcourt and wing players. The fifth spot in the starting and closing lineup also remains a key issue for Cleveland, as they opted for Cedi Osman over Isaac Okoro down the stretch in the opener hoping to get some offensive boost, but ended up giving up their best point-of-attack defender against Brunson. New York, meanwhile, will need Julius Randle and RJ Barrett to either be better or be more willing to play within themselves, because those two once again struggled with playoff scoring efficiency. The good news is, New York’s bench was much more settled in than Cleveland’s and the efforts of Josh Hart and Isaiah Hartenstein were huge in helping the Knicks get the win.
The margins in this series, like the three that will follow it, feel razor thin, and that makes for playoff excitement. Every great play and every big mistake feels magnified, and this series, maybe more than any other, seems to show the nerves of the postseason. Both teams have players either in their first postseason, trying to learn how to handle the pressure, or with past playoff struggles, trying to overcome the internal and external pressures all at once. That adds further to the drama of this series, and while it’s not free-flowing basketball like some of the West series, the tension is spectacular and I hope we get a long, back-and-forth affair.
2. Los Angeles Clippers (1-0) vs. Phoenix Suns (0-1)
The opener in Phoenix had a little bit of everything. Both teams made huge runs — L.A. jumping out to a 19-point lead, Phoenix charging back to go up nine in the third — before both teams settled in to a tense, back-and-forth battle. The Clippers came out on top thanks to Kawhi Leonard’s brilliance (38 points) and Russell Westbrook’s frenetic final minute where all of his best qualities were on display — he also shot 3-of-19 and had a halftime confrontation with a fan, but that’s all part of the experience. For Phoenix, they saw Kevin Durant and Devin Booker both play well, combining for 53 points, with Durant facilitating well (11 assists) and Booker having one of his best defensive games ever. The game really came down to the Clippers getting four cracks at their final possession of the game, thanks to two Westbrook offensive rebounds and another that bounced off the Suns out of bounds. That is how tight this series feels, particularly if Leonard is playing at the level he was on Sunday night. The stretch of the fourth where we watched Durant and Leonard go back-and-forth hitting outrageously difficult, contested shots was an absolute treat, and I hope we get at least a few more tight games down the stretch because this series features three of the best tough shotmakers in the entire NBA.
1. Sacramento Kings (1-0) vs. Golden State Warriors (0-1)
I was hopeful for this series, but carried a cautious pessimism into it because I was concerned the Warriors might be able to flip a switch and hit a gear Sacramento doesn’t have. After the opening win by the Kings, I came away feeling much better about this being the series everyone hoped it could be, because nothing really felt fluky about the performance on either side.
De’Aaron Fox proved he is really that guy and that his shot-making from the regular season was absolutely going to translate — and we learned Golden State doesn’t have anyone that can stay in front of him. Malik Monk’s 32-point outing was unexpected, but while he may take a step back, I think the other shooters on the Kings will get their legs under them after a nervy first game and even things out. Domantas Sabonis came out hot but struggled with Kevon Looney’s size and patience, which will be a matchup to watch all series long. The Kings’ frenetic pace seemed to speed up the Warriors, who also like to play fast but seemed to fall into the Kings’ trap of taking early clock shots rather than running their sets to get really good looks against a Sacramento defense with plenty of holes.
For the Warriors. Stephen Curry was very good but has to work hard every time Davion Mitchell is on the floor. Andrew Wiggins looks like he hasn’t missed a beat, albeit he missed a couple key threes late but that seems like shot variance, not rust. Klay Thompson is still not shy about shooting, and one of these games, a lot more of those threes he put up in Game 1 will fall. Draymond was Draymond, and Looney gave the aforementioned terrific defensive effort on Sabonis. All of it just feels sustainable, with the understanding that a lot of these games will simply come down to shot variance on both sides. That is going to make for a very fun series that is as aesthetically pleasing as they come, because of the pace these teams play at and how both are capable of making a big run at seemingly any time.
