Two major leaps in year-to-year salary cap have been anticipated ever since the league signed contracts for television rights worth an estimated $24 billion in fall 2014. The first significant jump is in the process of taking place, with the $94 million number for 2016-17 – a 34 percent raise on last season’s, by the way – ballooning player contracts to an extent some league followers have deemed irresponsible. And luckily for those naysayers, the gulf between the salary cap to follow won’t be quite as big as expected all along.
According to Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders and since confirmed by multiple national sources, the NBA sent a memo to all 30 teams on Thursday revising its projection for the 2017-18 salary cap to $102 million.
The NBA’s salary cap projection for the 2017-18 season has dropped from $107 million to $102 million.
In a memo distributed to all 30 teams, which was obtained by Basketball Insiders, the NBA credits a “substantial increase in projected player spending for 2016-17” that will reduce the league’s projected shortfall to the players to $200 million.
That $5 million is a significant difference, especially considering the way teams spent on players in the first week of free agency. Franchises handed out contracts on the working assumption of a $107 million salary cap for 2017-18; that it’s likely to come in at a sizable chunk lower than first announced could have a sweeping effect on the league landscape come next summer.
Max-level contract candidates like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook stand to lose a couple million dollars annually, while teams like the New York Knicks could suddenly be priced out of offering two maximum salary slots. The Los Angeles Lakers may face a similar predicament.
Interestingly, the Golden State Warriors’ path to retaining depth around Kevin Durant long-term might be made easier by this development, too. Golden State could exceed the cap to sign Durant to a starting salary of $31.8 million with Non-Bird Rights next July, which is just less than $2 million fewer than the number Basketball Insiders projects as his starting max under a $102 million salary cap. Why is that important? If Durant agrees to sign for a bit below his maximum amount allowable, the Warriors could re-sign both Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston with full Bird Rights because they wouldn’t have to clear space below the salary cap – and renounce at least one of their veteran role players – to give the 2014 MVP a new deal.
It’s pertinent to remember that this could prove irrelevant. Both the players and the league can opt out of the CBA in December, and it’s widely assumed one side will choose to do so. The owners seems especially likely to exercise that option in the aftermath of Durant leaving the small-market Oklahoma City Thunder for the Bay Area.
Regardless, keep a watchful eye on the salary cap going forward. If the current CBA goes unchanged into next summer, the ramifications of this new projection could drastically alter the 2017 free agency period.
(Via Basketball Insiders h/t Larry Coon’s NBA Salary Cap FAQ)
