Avengers: Infinity War is going to make a lot of money. That’s a given, even with a rumored $300 million budget. But Marvel and Disney don’t want “a lot of money,” they want all the money the way Thanos wants all the Infinity Stones, and based on early estimates, they’re going to be satisfied come Monday. Early estimates have Infinity War tracking at $216 million-$235 million at the domestic box office and $256 million-$263 million internationally (it’s opening in all the major markets, sans Russia and China) for a total of $472 million-$498 million.
Infinity War is showing some of the best domestic tracking scores ever, with unaided awareness (the non-frequent moviegoer indicator) at 59% beating all previous box office champs like The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi, etc. Ditto for first choice at 48% with definite interest at 72% only second to Avengers: Age of Ultron. (Via)
A few things stand out here:
1. A $216 million-$235 million opening weekend is just shy of the all-time record, which was set in 2015 by Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247 million). It is, however, enough to surpass Black Panther, The Avengers, Jurassic World, and possibly The Last Jedi ($220 million) for second place. But as Deadline points out, “Some believe the movie has the power to get to $275 million.”
2. The domestic opening record is in play, but the worldwide opening estimate won’t scrap the top-three. Let’s assume Infinity War hits $498 million — that’s still behind The Fate of the Furious (a ridiculous $541 million!), The Force Awakens, and Jurassic World. Anything above $483 million would have it finishing ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 for fourth place. (Remember: the last Marvel movie, Black Panther, exceeded its box office projections, so Infinity War coming after Fate isn’t out of the question. Either way, Vin Diesel wins.)
3. With rare exceptions, nearly every movie mentioned in this article — Infinity War, The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Black Panther, etc. — is a Disney property. I think they know what they’re doing there.