Ratings Analysis: ‘Blacklist,’ ‘New Girl’ get huge Live+7 bumps

Ratings Analysis: ‘Blacklist,’ ‘New Girl’ get huge Live+7 bumps

We’re starting the fifth week of the TV season, but it’s time to once again travel back in time to the Week of September 30 for a glance at the Live+7 ratings for the season’s second frame. 

Although the previous week was the official opening frame of the 2013-2014 season, the Week of September 30 saw premieres for such already-cancelled duds as “We Are Men,” “Ironside” and “Welcome to the Family,” a slew of comedies that are currently on life-support, The CW’s “The Vampire Diaries” and “The Originals,” CBS’ “The Millers” and the biggest sensation, the third season launch for “Scandal.” 

As a result, there are lots of little tidbits to examine, as “The Blacklist” continued to be a DVR sensation, FOX’s “New Girl” and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” took huge leaps and other wackiness ensued.

One interesting preamble: In premiere week, people rush to watch shows live, because they fear spoilers and because they want to sample stuff immediately while the hype is going. In subsequent weeks, people set their actual viewing schedules and are willing to push more stuff back on their schedules. That’s why last week, there were only a few shows getting 60 percent DVR bumps overall or in the key demo. This week, there are lots of shows getting bumps in the 60-ish percent rang and a couple going into the 70s. Whee.

Click through for some numbers…

1. “The Blacklist” (+6.5 million to 17.86 million)

2. “The Big Bang Theory” (+5.48 million to 23.7 million)

3. “Sleepy Hollow” (+4.83 million to 12.79 million)

4. “Elementary” (+4.82 million to 14.2 million)

5. “Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.” (+4.5 million to 13.165 million)

6. “NCIS” (+4.24 million to 19.98 million)

7. “Castle” (+4.16 million to 15.04 million)

8. “Person of Interest” (+4.09 million to 16.435 million)

9. “Modern Family” (+4.09 million to 15.21 million)

10. “Grey’s Anatomy” (+4.02 million to 13.62 million”

A few quick notes on the Top 10 in overall Live+7 growth: That’s the same Top 9 in that exact order from last week. Who knew that it would take only one week for Live+7 numbers to become this boring? “Grey’s Anatomy” moved into the Top 10 after just missing last week, getting both more DVR growth and a larger overall audience in its second week. “The Crazy Ones” slipped from adding 4.28 million viewers in its first week to only 2.9 million in its second week, as its total haul predictably fell from 19.73 million viewers to 14.61 million without the benefit of “Big Bang Theory” as its lead-in. That’s not so bad. And just as “The Blacklist” set a Live+7 record last week by adding 5.7 million viewers, it set another record this week by adding 6.5 million, losing only 400,000 viewers week-to-week in this measure. “Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.” dropped nearly 4 million, unsurprisingly the largest drop in the Top 10. And, once again, “Sleepy Hollow” had the biggest percentage increase for any show in the Top 10, going up 61 percent, which is extra impressive because this was Week 3 for “Sleepy Hollow” and Week 2 for the other Top 10 shows.

1. “The Big Bang Theory” (+2.4 to a 7.6 rating)

2. “The Backlist” (+2.2 to a 5.5 rating)

3. “Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.” (+2.1 to a 5.4 rating)

3. “Sleepy Hollow” (+2.1 to a 5.1 rating)

5. “Modern Family” (+2.0 to a 6.2 rating)

6. “Grey’s Anatomy” (+1.8 to a 4.9 rating)

7. “New Girl” (+1.7 to a 3.6 rating)

8. “Elementary” (+1.5 to a 3.5 rating)

9. “Nashville” (+1.3 to a 3.2 rating)

9. “Scandal” (+1.3 to a 4.9 rating)

9. “Criminal Minds” (+1.3 to a 4.0 rating)

9. “How I Met Your Mother” (+1.3 to a 4.4 rating)

A few quick notes on the Top 10 in Live+7 growth in the key demographic: There was some movement on this chart at least. “The Blacklist” equalled its total demo rating from last week by adding 0.5 to its Live+7 bump. That’s impressive. “New Girl” equalled last week’s Live+7 bump against a much smaller Live+Same Day rating, giving it an absurd 89 percent bump. “Elementary” added 0.1 to its Live+7 bump against a lower Live+SD and had a 75 percent bump, while “Sleepy Hollow” had a 70 percent bump for the second straight week. “Nashville” grew by 68 percent, “Blacklist” by 67 percent and “S.H.I.E.L.D.” by 64 percent. “Scandal” only grew by 36 percent, the smallest bump in the Top 10, but I refer you back to the intro and to premieres getting a bigger rate of live viewership, which would be extra true for a show that prioritizes live interaction like “Scandal” does.

And now, some interesting and semi-interesting tidbits before I tire of this and move on:

*** The now-cancelled “Ironside” rose 35 percent to 9.19 million viewers and 49 percent to a 1.9 rating among adults 18-49. Those are pretty reasonable bumps compared to the other already-cancelled shows from that week. CBS’ “We Are Men” rose an embarrassing 12 percent overall to 7.37 million viewers and an equally weak 15 percent to a 2.3 key demo rating, while “Welcome to the Family” added only 18 percent to 3.54 million viewers and 17 percent to a 1.3 key demo rating.

*** Looking at other shows in some jeopardy, “Sean Saves the World” added only 29 percent to a 1.8 key demo rating and 22 percent to 5.42 million viewers. Given its Week 2 drop in live viewing, there’s little cause for enthusiasm. ABC, though, may have gotten some encouragement for continuing to air “Betrayal,” which rose 55 percent to a 1.7 key demo rating. CBS also will probably stick a bit longer with “Hostages,” which rose 67 percent to a 2.5 key demo rating and 52 percent to 9.03 million viewers. Again, that doesn’t suddenly make either of those latter two shows hits, but it makes for less urgency to pull them. Getting worse news was FOX’s “Dads,” which grew only 27 percent to 4.3 million viewers and only 38 percent to a 1.8 key demo rating.

*** The “Dads” percentages aren’t the worst numbers in the world, but look at what “New Girl” did. In addition to the 89 percent bump in the demo, “New Girl” rose 69 percent overall to 6.48 million viewers. Also getting a massive Live+7 bump, relatively speaking, was “Brooklyn Nine-Nine, which rose 65 percent overall to 5.655 million viewers and 79 percent in the key demo to a 2.5 rating. Those numbers help explain the back-nine order for “Brooklyn Nine-Nine.” “The Mindy Project” rose 40 percent overall and 47 percent in the key demo.

*** As is always the case, some of the bigger Live+7 bumps, percentage-wise, came from The CW. “The Vampire Diaries” rose 52 percent overall to 3.94 million viewers and added 65 percent among adults 18-49, rising to a 2.0 rating. The CW, which has more information than I do, also notes that “Vampire Diaries” rose 73 percent among women 18-34. And in a special one-off airing, “The Originals” rose 46 percent overall to 3.21 million viewers and 60 percent among adults 18-49 to a 1.6 rating. 

*** It’s semi-notable that when “Crazy Ones” aired after “Big Bang Theory” in premiere week, it still got a big Live+7 bump. The same is not true for “The Millers,” which rose only 18 percent in the key demo to a 3.9 rating and only 13 percent overall to 14.805 million viewers.

*** “Chicago Fire” just missed out on the Top 10 in both lists, but it rose 42 percent overall with 12.39 million viewers and 50 percent in the key demo to a 3.9 rating

*** On the Interchangeable ABC Comedy front, “Neighbors” and “Back in the Game” both got negligible Live+7 bumps for the second straight week, while “Trophy Wife” did only slightly better. For its premiere, “Super Fun Night” rose 25 percent to a 4.0 rating among adults 18-49 and 18 percent to 9.74 million viewers, so we’ll see how much those figures droop for Live+7 in Week 2.