Each week, Uproxx’s Awards Forecast offers an assessment of who/what will be nominated for Oscars come January, based on pundit chatter and pre-Oscar awards. (The pundit analysis is based on opinions put forward by leading Oscar trackers, including Kyle Buchanan of Vulture, the expert panel at Gold Derby, Indiewire‘s Peter Knegt, Awards Daily and Awards Circuit. Pre-Oscar awards consider recent nominations and/or winners announced by industry and critic organizations that annually recognize achievement in film.)
Todd Haynes’ exquisite ‘50s-era love story Carol was nominated for best ensemble by the Screen Actors Guild and for a Golden Globe as best drama. Meanwhile, Mad Max: Fury Road has enjoyed a surge that’s included its director, who recently won an Australian Academy Award, recognition from multiple critics groups and a Golden Globe nod as Best Director. Bryan Cranston hadn’t been getting much love from the pundits, but this week, he was nominated for a SAG and a Golden Globe, effectively putting him back in a race where he wasn’t previously considered a contender. Along with Saoirse Ronan and Brie Larson, Cate Blanchett seems like an Oscar-nominee certainty, buoyed by her nods from SAG and the Hollywood Foreign Press. In the supporting categories, Michael Shannon won both SAG and Golden Globe nominations for his work as a ruthless man of real estate in 99 Homes while Helen Mirren also took home SAG and Globe nominations for Trumbo.
Spotlight remains the Best Picture front-runner. But many predict that George Miller’s work of Furiosa action, buoyed by support from various critic groups and Golden Globes, could score a nom. Alejandro González Iñárritu, last year’s winner for Birdman, looks like a lock for a repeat nomination. Meanwhile, though Leonardo DiCaprio still seems like the surest thing for the same movie, his What’s Eating Gilbert Grape? co-star Johnny Depp is on many pundits’ short lists. Similarly, Saoirse Ronan’s luminous performance in Brooklyn has put her on every list of predicted nominees. In the Supporting Actor category, Keaton has slightly more across-the-board punditry support than his co-star Mark Ruffalo, and Alicia Vikander looks more likely to score a nomination than The Danish Girl co-star Eddie Redmayne, who’s competing in the lead actor category.
The Big Short was nominated for best ensemble at the SAGs and best comedy at the Globes; could it make a play for Oscar? Ridley Scott got a Globe nomination, but Scott’s Oscar odds won’t become clearer until the Directors Guild announces its nominees in January. Meanwhile, The Martian star Matt Damon, didn’t get a SAG nomination which makes an Oscar nod look like less of a sure thing. SAG did, however, give Sarah Silverman a nomination for her dramatic turn I Smile Back, which suggests maybe there’s some support for her in the Academy’s acting branch. But will it be enough? Paul Dano earned a Globes nomination for Love & Mercy, but nothing from SAG. The question remains whether Academy voters will remember his portrayal of the young, addled Brian Wilson. Youth hasn’t gotten the recognition that early awards season buzz suggested it might. Right now, Jane Fonda looks like its best shot at an Oscar.
