Earlier today, Alan Sepinwall and Brian Grubb offered their best predictions of who the Hollywood Foreign Press Association would honor in the television categories at the Golden Globes on Sunday. Now it’s time to try the same with the movie categories. The Globes are, well, weird. Everyone’s drunk. The HFPA is a mysterious organization with often curious standards. It’s a predictor of who will win at the Oscars, but hardly the best predictor. That’s in part because the Globes divides its awards into “Drama” and “Comedy or Musical” categories, sometimes bizarrely. (Remember that hilarious comedy, The Martian.) And part because it’s often just… off. Look no further than last year for evidence. Leonardo DiCaptiro and Brie Larson won in the dramatic acting categories and Alejandro González Iñárritu won the Best Director prize. But otherwise, the top categories didn’t line up with the Oscars. The Globes also have a tendency to award, or at least nominate, familiar faces. Last year, Stallone was a lock for Best Supporting Actor for Creed at the Globes while the Oscar eluded him. That said, there’s always at least one or two “Huh?” moments each year. It’s predictably unpredictable. So, given that, here are some stabs at predictions anyway.
Best Picture, Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Keith: I think Moonlight has this one. It’s an undeniably great movie — this year’s One Movie Everyone Can Agree On — and it’s been picking up momentum throughout awards season. Any other winner would be a surprise. (So it’ll probably actually go to Hacksaw Ridge.)
Mike: I can’t argue with this, even for the sake of compelling commentary. Okay, I’ll try. Manchester by the Sea has a lot of momentum right now. But so does Moonlight. And it’s weird: Manchester, Moonlight and La La Land seem to be The Big Three and just keep winning everything. But, yes, I think this goes to Moonlight, too.
Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street
Keith: Again, it feels like there’s an obvious winner here in La La Land. Everyone else should get a “thanks for trying” trophy. That said, how do you feel about the Deadpool nomination? I like that movie. I don’t love that movie. But I’m kind of glad to see it here anyway.
Mike: I did not like Deadpool. It also got a WGA nomination. All of this astonishes me. Anyway, congratulations to La La Land on its Golden Globe victory.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Keith: This is tougher to call. I think the easiest choice here is La La Land. Twitter backlash aside, everyone loves it. And it’s probably the most directed movie among the nominations.
Mike: Eh, the “Twitter backlash” means nothing. It literally happen every year to the front runner and never, ever matters. If it mattered, Birdman would certainly not be a Best Picture winner. I think there’s a possibility Barry Jenkins could win this, but I agree — again! — that Chazelle will win. (So far this has been a very boring debate.)
Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Keith: This will be part of the Casey Affleck victory tour leading up to the Oscars, unless the HFPA goes with Denzel Washington who is, as usual, great in Fences. If they go with Washington’s track record and the passion project nature of that movie, it could go to him.
Mike: I am surprised by just how little Denzel Washington has won so far. He’s so great in Fences! But, yes, you are again correct: I don’t think anything stops Affleck at this point. And there have been quite a few reasons his campaign could have been derailed, but nothing seems to hurt his chances.
Best Actress, Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Keith: Process of elimination. It won’t be Chastain. She’s great but, woof, that movie. It won’t be Huppert because people will be put off by Elle. It won’t be Negga because, sigh, not enough people saw that movie. (It’s really good!) It probably won’t be Adams just because it doesn’t feel like her year or entirely her movie, though it would fall apart without her. So, Portman. Actually, that’s probably a lot more work than we needed to do. Portman will be unstoppable this year.
Mike: Well, not so fast. Here, yes. it’s Portman. But Emma Stone is in the Comedy section, so her main competition is gone. So with them in different categories, it makes this pretty easy*, but I don’t think she’s a lock for an Oscar just quite yet.
*Again, with the Hollywood Foreign Press, you just never know. If Portman didn’t campaign for the group (basically hang out at their parties) and someone else did, that’s about all it takes to change a winner because this group is so small.
Best Actor, Comedy
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
Keith: Gosling could not be more winning in La La Land. It will go to him. But I kind of love him being against Farrell who brilliantly squelches all his natural charisma in The Lobster. It’s a neat contrast.
Mike: You know, I could see something crazy happening here like Ryan Reynolds winning for Deadpool. I am one of those people who a) loves La La Land and b) thinks Ryan Gosling was even better in The Nice Guys than he was in La La Land. I wish he was nominated for The Nice Guys
Best Actress, Comedy
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Keith: The unstoppable force that is Rules Don’t Apply will vault Collins to… Oh wait. I think I got some wires crossed there. I love Steinfeld in Edge of Seventeen and Bening in 20th Century Women (still haven’t seen Florence Foster Jenkins), but this is Stone’s.
Mike: Yep. Though I will say I have seen Florence Foster Jenkins and never count out Meryl Streep. Never.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Keith: Ali’s been winning all the critics’ awards but I think Bridges has this one, thanks to the HFPA’s love of stalwarts. That Bridges is great doesn’t hurt. Though is this a supporting performance?
Mike: Oh my goodness I’m going to disagree with you. I think this goes to Ali. I think Ali is having the J.K. Simmons, “I’m winning everything on my way to an Oscar”-type awards season experience.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Keith: This one’s a tougher call. Davis? Let’s just say Davis. Unless it’s Williams.
Mike: I think Viola Davis is the biggest lock of this awards season. She will own a Golden Globe.
Best Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Keith: I think Lonergan will get this as a consolation prize, though I wouldn’t be shocked if Taylor Sheridan won, either. After this and Sicario he’s becoming a name to watch.
Mike: Yeah, it seems Manchester has locked down the Best Actor and Screenplay slots. I wish I got consolation prizes that were that good!
Best Original Score
Moonlight
La La Land
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures
Keith: This is one of the more unexpectedly controversial categories since Jóhann Jóhannsson’s Arrival score was deemed ineligible for the Oscars due to the film’s use of non-original music alongside his work. It’s a terrific score, but Nicholas Britell’s Moonlight work is arguably even more central to that film. I think it wins.
Mike: I agree. And I think they will split the music categories between Moonlight and La La Land. So it will become, “Okay, I voted for Moonlight here, so I have to give it to La La Land for the song.
Best Original Song
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Faith,” Sing
“Gold,” Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
Keith: Huh. Another tough call. I suspect it will go too “City of Stars.” But Justin Timberlake could win for Trolls and “How Far I’ll Go” as one of the most memorable songs in a film filled with memorable songs.
Mike: The only thing that stops “City of Stars” is a voter thinking, “Hm, you know, Justin Timberlake is really famous and it might be fun if he came to our afterparty.”
Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia
Keith: My Life as a Zucchini, obvs. Actually, I think it will come down to Moana and Zootopia, and everyone I talk to seems to strongly prefer one or the other. I suspect Zootopia will win, though I like Moana a little better.
Mike: I think Disney is a little befuddled that they have two movies to support through an awards campaign and I get the sense they are throwing their support behind Zootopia as to prevent vote splitting and something else sneaking in there and winning. If Zootopia is the movie getting the push from the studio, Zootopia is what will win.
Best Foreign Language Film
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann
Keith: This will probably go to Toni Erdmann. It’s a determinedly odd movie, but also a winning one, which can’t be said of Elle, probably its closest competition. But keep an eye on The Salesman. It hasn’t come out here yet but should be a big deal (in an arthouse sort of way) when it does.
Mike: For the life of me I still can’t figure out why Toni Erdmann is nearly three hours long. Even so, it’s a pretty breezy watch and I think that makes it easy to vote for. Elle is certainly not a breezy watch. Anyway, maybe that big 10-foot hairy creature-thing will show up like he did to the New York Film Critics Circle Awards? I like that thing.
