College Football Week 1 Picks: Defenses Will Dominate Opening Weekend

Hello, friends. The first full week of the college football season is upon us after a nice little warmup in Week 0 with Hawaii and Wyoming putting forth impressive performances.

With a full week of games from Thursday through Monday, as college football takes advantage of their one week a year without the NFL also in action, there are plenty of opportunities to get some action in on the games. With the national ban on sports betting lifted and more and more states with legal sports betting (or on the road to it), there is more national interest than ever on gambling, and football remains king when it comes to sports wagering.

For a primer on general principles to follow when gambling on college football, you should go here where our Brad Rowland laid out a number of things to keep in mind as the season begins. In this space, I’ll be handing out winners (hopefully) each week with my favorite bets of the weekend in college football. After a solid Week 0 on my own (2-1), I’m feeling good and loose and ready to get a bit aggressive for this week.

Unsurprisingly, I’m on Unders and Underdogs exclusively this week. If you don’t like sweating it out deep into games, then this column simply isn’t for you. Sweating Unders builds character and toughens the soul. There will be bad beats, but hopefully even more winners to start building up that bankroll for once we get into conference play.

We’ll start on Thursday, to hopefully set the tone for a big weekend. As always, we’ll go with odds from the Westgate Super Book in Las Vegas (as of Wednesday afternoon at 2 p.m. PT on VegasInsider).

Tulane (+6.5) vs. Wake Forest and UNDER 56 (Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET)

We’re riding the Wave here as a home underdog and the under on the total at 56 points. Wake Forest is starting a freshman quarterback on the road without one of his top wide receivers, and I think Tulane, with it’s option rushing attack, can control the ball enough to keep things close and low scoring against the Deacs — who have a pretty solid defensive unit. Also, Tulane’s helmets may be the best in the country, and that counts. Just ask Hawaii.

Northwestern at Purdue UNDER 52.5 (Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET)

I’m not a believer in Clayton Thorson, as the Wildcats’ QB returns from ACL surgery, but I am a believer in Northwestern’s defense. Purdue’s defense likes to bring pressure and it will be interesting to see how Thorson holds up to that, although that can mean some big plays over the top if they don’t get home. Even so, there’s nothing like starting the season off with a proper Big Ten Under sweat — and, just generally, weeknight Unders are a good bet on principle.

Utah State at Michigan State UNDER 50.5 (Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Since 2014, Utah State has played six Power 5 conference teams on the road. In those games, they have averaged 10.8 points per game. Michigan State figures to have a strong defense and a solid, but not exactly overpowering offense. This will likely be a sweat in the fourth quarter, but I don’t see Sparty scoring 40 and, as a general rule, the Aggies aren’t going to put up much in the way of points on the road against a good team.

Western Kentucky at Wisconsin UNDER 52 (Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET)

This total’s been rising, so maybe wait until Friday for this one to creep over 52 (it’s at 52.5/53 in some spots already), but the wind is supposed to be blowing in Camp Randall and that doesn’t bode well for the Hilltoppers. There’s a chance the Badgers score 45 on their own, and in that case we’re in deep trouble. However, provided WKU can avoid giving up multiple long touchdown runs, Wisconsin’s going to ball-control them to death here with a strong rushing attack and a desire to not do anything dumb in the passing game. This might not be fun, but it’s the right side.

Colorado State (+7.5) at Colorado (Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET)

We all watched the Rams get smacked by Hawaii last week, but this line’s swung too far in favor of the Buffs for my liking. This is a rivalry game, where emotions will be high and both teams will look to be very competitive. I think CSU will look better than they did in the first half against Hawaii, when they clearly were caught off guard by current Heisman frontrunner Cole McDonald. This is at 8 or 8.5 in some shops, so keep your eye on this if it climbs and shop it around, but I like the Rams to keep this inside a touchdown.

Texas State (+16.5) at Rutgers (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)

I refuse to allow Rutgers to be more than two touchdown favorites against anyone and not bet it. That’s all this is. Give me the Bobcats, knowing fully well they are not a good football team.

Kent State at Illinois UNDER 55.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Neither of these teams are good at defense, but both were somehow way worse offensively than they were bad defensively last year. Illinois was 127th in the country in scoring at 15.4 points per game, which was somehow a good deal better than Kent State, who was 129th at 12.8 points per game. There are 130 FBS teams. Under.

UMass at Boston College UNDER 63 (Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Massachusetts ran it up on poor Duquesne last week and because of that this total has climbed nearly a field goal. To go Over in this means these two would have to combine for more than nine touchdowns. That seems like a lot, and I’m not buying UMass’ offense being anywhere close to as dynamic against an Eagles team with some dudes on that side of the ball.

Washington (+115) vs. Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)

I’m taking the Huskies ON THE FIELD to get it done as a small underdog against Auburn in Atlanta. Both of these teams play good defense, but in the end I’m taking Washington with an edge in coaching and experience on offense to get a narrow victory here and send the Tigers to 0-3 in the Big Body Benz.

Troy (+10) vs. Boise State (Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET)

Troy +10 is actually the worst number on the board in Vegas, so shop this to 10.5 or even 11 if you’re planning on riding with the Trojans here. They’re a very solid, balanced team and lost by 11 on the road last year to Boise. This is one of the best G5 teams in the nation and, while they might not be at Boise’s level, I do think they can keep this inside single digits.

Michigan at Notre Dame UNDER 47 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

All indications are that it’s going to be nasty in South Bend for this game, with a forecast for rain and wind. That’s a good combination for an Under. Add in these are two of the nation’s best defensive units and I’m sold on this being a low-scoring affair. We’re just fading defensive scores and overtime.

Louisville vs. Alabama UNDER 62.5 (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)

There’s a lot of chatter about how Alabama won’t be Alabama on defense this year. That might be true, but they’ll still be one of the nation’s best units and I have questions about Louisville in the post-Lamar Jackson era. Also, Alabama’s going to likely play both quarterbacks early in this one, and that might keep them from really getting into a rhythm until Saban finally settles on his man. This total has been steadily climbing and 62.5 is just too many points.

Miami (FL) vs. LSU UNDER 47 (Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

A neutral site game between two of the nation’s better defenses with one of them having some serious question marks on offense?! Sign me up for the Under. I’m not at all confident in LSU’s offense and while Miami returns a lot from last year’s squad, they weren’t exactly the most dynamic scoring group (59th at 29.1 points per game).