I’m not bothering to predict the BAFTA nominations this year because 1) the longlists largely take the guesswork out of that for us; 2) no voting group that thinks “Midnight in Paris” had better visual effects than “The Tree of Life” deserves too much of our time and attention; and 3) I mean, seriously. But anyway, they’re a few hours away — a breakfast-time announcement for the Brits, a pre-midnight one for Hollywood — and if you have any last-minute thoughts, hopes or projections about the British Academy’s selections, here’s the place for them.
One thing we can be certain of: after struggling to gain traction on the US precursor circuit, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy,” which jointly led the longlists with 16 mentions, will finally receive a warm embrace here. The combination of literary cache, old-and-new-school British acting elite and spectacular box-office should set it up as the chief BAFTA rival to all-purpose frontrunner “The Artist,” which can also expect a bucketload of nominations.
Less certain is whether the rather more surprising longlist co-leader, “My Week With Marilyn,” can also score in the top categories: the film may not be the most fashionable or heavily-buzzed choice, but I sense there’s rather a lot of support for it in the more conversative, even television-oriented, reaches of BAFTA; don’t be surprised if it displaces a less outwardly Brit-friendly Oscar favorite like “The Descendants” or “Midnight in Paris.”
Anyway, more on this in a few hours. Refresh your memory with the longlists here.