How did In Contention do with our 2015 Oscar picks?

02.23.15 3 years ago 29 Comments

The 87th Academy Awards are finally over. Now that we've all had a chance to try and rid ourselves of our massive celebratory hangovers, let's tackle the most important question of the day:

How did Kristopher Tapley and Gregory Ellwood do with their 2015 Oscar predictions?

We're so glad you asked because we were curious, too! It turns out that Tapley is the co-King of the Oscar pundits. He predicted 20 out of the 24 categories, matching Kyle Buchanan of Vulture. Ellwood predicted 17 correctly, tying him with Mark Harris of Grantland, but behind Glenn Whipp of the LA Times and Steve Pond at The Wrap (but also ahead of a lot of other famous bylines).

Let's take a moment and see where we both scored and where we failed miserably, because we expect we'll never live it down.

Animated Short
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Live Action Short
Greg – Wrong
Kris – Correct

Ellwood: Took a chance with the more cinematic “Aya.” Thought “Phone Call” was predictable and familiar.  Obviously, the Academy wanted some comfort food in this category.

Documentary Short
Greg – Wrong
Kris – Wrong

Ellwood: “Crisis” is a fine, TV quality doc short. “Joanna” is beautiful and enduring. Biggest travesty of the night.

Tapley: “Travesty” is a bit rich. I did think the artful nature of “Joanna” would combine with its emotion for a victory, but the emotion of “Crisis” is evident, too. It made for a nice companion to “The Phone Call.”

Documentary Feature
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Animated Feature Film
Greg – Wrong
Kris – Wrong

Ellwood: I'm not sure who was more mad about this win, Tapley or myself. Years from now people will go, “What? 'Big Hero 6' beat 'How To Train Your Dragon 2?'”

Tapley: Still mad. Come back to me…

Foreign Language Film
Greg – Wrong
Kris – Correct

Ellwood: Took a reach here on “Wild Tales.” Thought the more conventional Hollywood style (well maybe conventional Tarantino-esque style) would play better than “Ida.” Nope.

Tapley: Maybe in the old days, when voters were required to attend these screenings, “Wild Tales” could have pulled it off. It plays much better with an audience. Any one of these could have won, though. Tight year, and “Timbuktu” was probably formidable.

Visual Effects
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Sound Mixing
Greg – Correct
Kris – Wrong

Ellwood: “Whiplash” was a major Academy favorite. Just made too much sense here.

Tapley: I had a hunch that if “Birdman” was going to win Best Picture, it had to rise above the recent three-Oscar limit for winners. I stretched that logic to here, but “Whiplash” made a lot of sense, too. Whatever happened, I figured “American Sniper” wouldn't take both.

Sound Editing
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Ellwood: “American Sniper” was a slam dunk here. Would have put money on it in Vegas if I could have.

Tapley: You could have!

Original Song
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Original Score
Greg – Wrong
Kris – Correct

Ellwood: Desplat was due, but the love for “Theory” in the Academy seemed strong. The score was such a substantial piece of the movie I stupidly went with my heart and not my brain on this one.

Tapley: I sort of held my breath and followed BAFTA on this one. The history was very much in “Theory's” favor, though, particularly if you look at the track record of the Globes in this category.

Production Design
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Costume Design
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Makeup and Hairstyling
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Cinematography
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Adapted Screenplay
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Ellwood: Knew there was no way the Academy was going to let “The Imitation Game” go home empty handed.

Tapley: The inclusion of “Whiplash” still made this a hell of a wild card category. It did not find itself up against any of these films all season. I bet it was close.

Original Screenplay
Greg – Wrong
Kris – Correct

Ellwood: Wes Anderson had taken home every possible precursor. How could he lose here?

Tapley: Further to the mention in Sound Mixing, I figured the “Birdman” love had to stretch a bit wider. The Globes have a damn good track record here, but furthermore, I anticipated “Grand Budapest” mainly being viewed as a crafts achievement.

Film Editing
Greg – Correct
Kris – Wrong

Ellwood: Always thought “Whiplash” would win this one. Too much love in the Academy for it.

Tapley: I guess this just shows how weak “Boyhood” really was with AMPAS. It made sense to me as a winner here if it was indeed a serious Best Picture player, but I'm super happy that the best work on display won the prize.

Supporting Actor
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Supporting Actress
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Lead Actress
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Lead Actor
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Tapley: Michael. :(

Director
Greg – Correct
Kris – Correct

Picture
Greg – Wrong
Kris – Correct

Ellwood: Listen, “Birdman” was my #2 movie of the year and my prediction, “Boyhood,” didn't even make my top 10. I got screwed picking “Gravity” last year (don't get me started) so I went safe with “Boyhood.” Mistake, but I might do it again.

Tapley: “Safe” would have been following the guilds! That PGA/DGA/SAG trifecta is virtually bulletproof at this stage, and I think once and for all the PGA's preferential ballot is the skeleton key to the season. (Until, of course, it isn't.)

How did you do in your office or party Oscar pools?  Anyone get them all right?

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