The 2015-16 NBA Season starts soon, preseason hoops are in full swing, and playoff prognostications have begun in earnest. Since season previews can get bogged down by team-specific minutiae, and we cover every basketball team, we’re providing our readers reasons why you should care about all 30 teams in the Association.
DIME MAG’s 2015-16 NBA Season Previews
The Heat are getting some heat in the preseason – the fun kind, like you get at the beach along the bay where northerners lap up the breeze and the SPF 30-plus sun. Godfather Pat Riley has reloaded impressively in the wake of LeBron’s second league-reshuffling decision, and now they’re legitimate threats to make some noise in the playoffs. They’re a top-4 seed when you look at their lineups, and Erik Spoelstra has the experience after four straight Finals appearances. There’s no more chatter of Riles coming down from the front office like in 2011. All this despite last year’s disappointment. Right now, the fans and the media are giving everyone a break after clots were thankfully spotted in time on Chris Bosh’s lungs.
Basketball fans can be happy that we’ll get to see Bosh and Wade team with some serious weapons, perhaps an arsenal that would have sated even James — though still without the homeyness of Cleveland’s sub-zero winters. As expected, they re-signed Goran Dragic, but the five-year deal (player option in the fifth) was for around $18 million less than a max. That’s how they afforded another year of Wade who made it seem like he’d be willing to play footsie with other teams after some public comments about the salary sacrifices he made to bring LeBron and Bosh aboard in the summer of 2010 had many wondering if he’d actually leave for elsewhere.
It’s a good thing for the Heat, and for Wade, that didn’t happen. There wasn’t much of a market for him, and he’s as much Miami Heat basketball as anyone ever to don the uniform.
But they got him for $20 million, Luol Deng smartly re-upped, Josh McRoberts is back from a torn meniscus that ruined all but his first month with the Heat last season; they signed Gerald Green for an incredibly palatable $1.3 million deal and they even got Justise Winslow at No. 10 in the draft. Everything’s turning up Riles!
Now we’ll see if Spoelstra can make it all work. Will all the mysteries surrounding this team — Dragic’s place in the offense, Bosh’s return, Wade’s health, Deng’s odometer and Whiteside’s maturity — all turn in their favor?
Another sexy starting five, but will all the pieces fit?
Like the Bucks, Miami sports one of the best starting units in the East. If their blitz of the Wizards in preseason play earlier this week is any indication, they’ve also got a fun spark plug off the bench in Gerald Green. The Heat are even more of a paper tiger than Milwaukee, but the real season hasn’t started yet, and they just haven’t spent much time together finding the seams that’ll work for him on the offensive side of the ball. Fortunately, they’ve played solid defense, though that might change when things turn real.
A starting lineup of Goran Dragic (PG), Dwyane Wade (SG), Luol Deng (SF), Chris Bosh (PF) and Hassan Whiteside (C) has to put them near the elite level in the shallow end of the NBA. So what if we take this to its natural conclusion and start daydreaming about a seven-game epic against the former King of South Beach (or the other side of Biscayne Bay, where American Airlines Arena is actually located).
Except, there are downsides. Dwyane Wade’s iffy outside shooting still can’t spread the floor, Goran Dragic’s production conspicuously decreased after his All-NBA Third Team selection in 2014, Chris Bosh isn’t very far removed from the lung issue, Hassan Whiteside is an emotional wildcard and it’s not clear if Luol Deng was broken beyond repair by Tom Thibodeau’s insistence he be on the court in Chicago.
All of those are worth keeping an eye on, but primarily it’ll be fun to see them gel as a starting unit. Whiteside is a classic big man, who can crash the glass like Tristan just got paid to do off the bench in Cleveland, and defend the rim. But the B&D big (boards and defense) is due a new contract at the end of the year, and it’s unclear what effect that horizon will have on him.
The real question is how Dragic and Wade split up backcourt duties. Wade is used to having the ball in his hands, especially after LeBron’s exodus and Bosh’s medical absence. Dragic is the same way, and it’s why Zeke’s presence in Phoenix so irked him in Phoenix last year. Both backcourt starters have looked bad in stretches during preseason action. Both are ranked average (Wade), or below average on Synergy during the 60-80 odd possession they’ve been involved with that end in a shot, turnover or free throw.
But Bosh has looked terrific and he’s so confident shooting from downtown now, he’s got a head start on all the bigs who are making the transition after the Warriors made it so sexy a strategy.
Amar’e Stoudemire is around, too, putting some practice pressure on Whiteside, and Green and Rio will be fun for the second unit backcourt. Winslow and James Ennis will back up Deng, and Winslow will learn at the foot of a master — Wade — who should school the promising teenage rookie on the slash and dash style that was Wade’s modus operandi before his knees buckled.
The real thing is whether the Heat can run. Transition is a fickle business, but Wade and Dragic both do infinitely better when they can get out and attack open hardwood. They’ve played well defensively in the preseason, but we won’t really know whether they can run as much as Spoelstra is hoping. Or, if they don’t convert as many fast-break points as they’d like, whether setting up fast and whipping the ball around will leverage the obvious talent they now have.
Can classic hothead Hassan Whiteside keep it together for a full season so he gets paid?
If all goes right for the rebuilt Miami Heat this season, they could be hoisting a Larry O’Brien Trophy come June. That’s not hyperbole. A starting five of Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside supplemented by reserves like Josh McRoberts, Justise Winslow and more ensures that Miami has the chance to compete for a championship in 2015-16.
Still, we’d hedge against it happening. There are simply too many variables involved to believe the Heat can capitalize on all of their individual talent to emerge as a dominant team. Health issues, defensive weaknesses, or specific offensive deficiencies could keep Miami from the championship picture by themselves, and there’s a good chance Erik Spoelstra will have to contend with each of those likelihoods throughout this season.
Pat Riley constructed this team to win a championship now. That the Heat could conceivably do so just a season removed from LeBron James’ departure is something close to incredible, too. But it wouldn’t be possible at all without Whiteside’s shocking emergence as a potential All-NBA center, a ceiling the wildly gifted 25-year-old might reach playing in a place other than South Beach – and Riley could be close to powerless to stop from happening.
Whiteside is an unrestricted free agent next summer. Unlike the vast majority of players hitting the open market, though, he’s a Non-Bird rights free agent – meaning Miami, like the rest of the league, will require cap space to sign him unless he takes a massive pay-cut. Considering Whiteside has earned relative pennies since leaving Marshall University in 2010 and bouncing around the basketball world, it’s safe to assume he’ll sign the most lucrative deal available to him next July.
If the laughably long big man builds on his breakout campaign in 2015-16, he’ll be worth a max-level contract after the season – one that commands a starting salary of approximately $21 million. That’s a problem for the Heat despite the salary cap’s imminent boom. Only Dragic, Bosh, McRoberts and Winslow are under contract beyond this year, but still account for $48 million of guaranteed money. That leaves Riley with just over $40 million of cash to not only re-sign Whiteside and Wade, but account for the potential of losses of Deng, Amar’e Stoudemire, Gerald Green, Mario Chalmers and Chris Anderson with replacements, too.
Whether or not the Heat will be able to retain Whiteside at his max salary and maintain a semblance of meaningful depth will come down to two factors: Wade’s willingness to both accept a pay decrease and play the waiting game as Miami fills out its roster; and the chance established veterans will go title-hunting on the cheap.
It’s far too early to assume that free agents will consider the Heat a championship contender. What’s fair, though, is questioning the likelihood of Wade patiently playing good soldier after he made so much noise early last summer about leaving the only team he’s ever known. Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki are exceptions; not every aging superstar is comfortable playing the final years of his career on a contract that belies his reputation as a franchise cornerstone. Expecting Wade to suddenly warm to that idea is unrealistic.
Here’s the scary reality for the Heat: 2015-16 will be likely their best chance at a title in the near future, and could even be their last one for much longer than that. Whiteside is the biggest domino, but the games of Wade, Bosh and even Dragic are aging. They only have so much time left as star-level players.
And unless they play like it this season and make Miami a contender, Whiteside and others will have little incentive to sign in South Beach going forward.
