Welcome to Hoop Dreams, a season preview unlike any other you’ll read before the 2016-17 season tips off. The premise is simple. We’ll be providing 30 of these fictional forays because it simply stinks that only one team can win the title each year. The list of contending teams seems to shrink with each campaign, and we wanted to provide something to those fans who only get to dream of Larry O’Brien during the offseason. Before October, every team can win the NBA title. Don’t believe us? Then keep reading. – Ed
The Boston Celtics have been chasing a franchise player since they broke up their core of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Frequent attempts to lure Kevin Love failed, Russell Westbrook isn’t going anywhere, and their stash of the Brooklyn Nets’ lottery picks hasn’t been as lucky as they hoped. That hasn’t stopped them from improving every year since they hired Brad Stevens as head coach, however.
This year, they landed a legitimately great player in Al Horford without having to deal any of their core of athletic, tenacious perimeter defenders. It may not look like it, but the pieces are finally in place.
Look at the Boston Celtics roster, and one thing becomes clear: This team is still young, but not Timberwolves or Nuggets young. Horford and Gerald Green are their oldest players, and neither of them are crusty veterans. Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, and Jae Crowder are all between 25 and 28 years old, and they’ve played together for over a full season now. Marcus Smart is entering his third year, and Jaylen Brown is the highest draft pick the Celtics have had since Chauncey Billups in 1997, and those two arguably possess more raw talent than any of their teammates mentioned above.
It’s fateful that Billups has been mentioned already, because to explain how the Celtics will win the title this year, we only have to look as far back as 2004 to find the last team to beat a squad of superstars with a group greater than the sum of its parts. That team rode aggressive defense and unselfishness to the title, and that’s exactly what the Celtics will do.
Even as Boston was one of the top defensive units in the league last year (tied for fourth in defensive rating), their big men were suspect on that end. Sure, Amir Johnson is a bulldog who often defends bigger than his size quite well, but other rotational bigs Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger were neither rim protectors nor adept at switching on the perimeter. Olynyk’s still here, but Sullinger has been replaced by Horford, who’s one of the best in the league at hedging on pick-and-rolls far away from the basket and recovering to contest shots. Combine that presence with Bradley, Smart, and Crowder and you’re looking at the best defense in the NBA.
Horford will also improve the Celtics’ offense as one of the best midrange shooters (and as a result, pick-and-pop players) in the game, as well as a better passer than any big who was in Boston last season. Is he a guy on the tier of superstars who immediately make a team relevant? No, but the Celtics were not a team that needed such a player.
So, health permitting, the Celtics will improve from last season — no one seems to think otherwise. But improvement means nothing if it doesn’t get you past the Cavaliers, and then (one would assume) the Warriors. So, let’s think about how they’d gameplan for the heavy-hitters, with the necessary caveat that Stevens is a masterful schemer and will almost certainly have better ideas than us.
Tristan Thompson gave Horford fits on the boards when the Cavs dominated the Hawks in the last two postseasons, but Amir Johnson could provide an interesting cross-match there. More importantly, Big Al provides a better security blanket for Jae Crowder matching up on LeBron than anything the Celtics had before. With a combination of Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart hounding Kyrie Irving, the Celtics have adequate personnel to make sure Kevin Love and J.R. Smith beat them from the outside, where the Celtics allowed a bottom-five percentage in the NBA last season.
Offensively, Isaiah Thomas is still around, and if Kyrie is forced to guard him, the sub-6′ waterbug will be able to get into the paint. With another season with this team and as the primary point guard, he should improve in finding cutters, and whichever big man plays alongside Horford will have dunks and three-pointers available — Kelly Olynyk, Amir Johnson or whoever can put in work against Love. If Bradley and Crowder knock down threes at their career rates, a series win over the Cavs is very doable.
Then, there are the Warriors. The same defensive principles apply, except Horford will have an easier time against Zaza Pachulia than against Thompson. When the Dubs go to their Death Lineup, Horford has the quickness to stay with Draymond Green on defense, and doesn’t require the low-post touches that Green defends so well. This is where Marcus Smart’s offensive progression will be crucial, because if he can shoot straight, he can take minutes off Thomas and give Steph Curry problems. When the Celtics reach their peak defensively, they’ll be one of the only teams that can hope to slow down the Warriors’ machine.
Working further in their advantage is their continuity and their team chemistry. Stevens keeps this team on an even keel, and if any cracks show in the Warriors’ makeup, the Celtics will be in a great position to take advantage. If they give Draymond a bad day, their groins may not come through unscathed, but their mental game will.
The bottom line is that the Celtics probably haven’t reached the best version of this young core yet — but they’re already good enough to win the title. All you have to be willing to do is dream.
