Each week throughout March Madness, DIME is profiling draft prospects from each region of the NCAA Tournament who we deem most intriguing. There’s no real rubric for this exercise. We’ll be be highlighting surefire top-five picks, run-of-the-mill first-rounders, and even guys who may not hear their name called at Barclays Center on June 23. There’s just one rule: Only players still participating in the Tournament will be considered. Read our first installment on Duke’s Brandon Ingram here.
March, needless to say, can make a prospect’s draft stock. The pressure of do-or-die basketball on the country’s biggest stage can ruin it, too. But NBA franchises will be carefully monitoring developments of the next three weeks regardless, altering draft boards in accordance with what scouts, general managers, and even the viewing public sees — possibly drastically altering their futures in the process.
The NCAA Tournament is about winning first and foremost. And not only will the following prospect wield a heavy hand when it comes to his current team’s fortunes, but perhaps those of his first professional one, too.
The Player: Devonte’ Graham, 6-foot-3 sophomore guard for the University of Kansas.
The Present: Graham averages 11.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. He shoots 46.7 percent from the floor, 44.4 percent from beyond the arc (on 4.5 attempts per game), and 74.7 percent from the free throw line. He was selected All-Big 12 Honorable Mention and Big 12 All-Defense, and was named the MVP of the Big 12 Tournament.
The Future: The Jayhawks are every bit the juggernaut college basketball has come to know since Bill Self took the reins in Lawrence almost 15 years ago. Unlike dominant KU teams of the past, though, this one isn’t led by multiple likely lottery picks or even first-rounders – and Graham represents that reality better than any of his more-heralded teammates.
A native of Raleigh, N.C., he initially signed a Letter of Intent with low-major Appalachian State in 2013. But late-stage interest from bigger schools prompted Graham to reopen the recruitment process, and he spent a post-graduate year at Brewster Academy – a KU pipeline – to further boost his stock. He signed with the Jayhawks before last season after Appalachian State’s new coach finally released him from his LOI.
Kansas fans didn’t expect much of Graham after he made his final college choice, and it’s fair to say Self didn’t either – at least this early in the sophomore’s career. Yet following a merely solid debut season with one of college basketball’s blue bloods, Graham has quietly emerged as the 30-4 Jayhawks’ best and most consistent player while building a viable draft profile in the process.
Twenty-one year olds with less-than-remarkable physical gifts have a tougher road to the next level than their younger peers. That Graham has flown under the radar nationally in 2015-16 compared to veteran teammates Perry Ellis and Frank Mason only makes him more anonymous from an NBA perspective to all but the most plugged-in draftniks. But there’s always a place in the league for ultra-steady guards who initiate offense with responsibility and creativity, knock down open shots, and hold their own defensively, and that’s the description Kansas’ little-known star has earned throughout an eye-opening sophomore campaign.
Graham has deep, effortless range on his jumper. He’s nearly as comfortable shooting off the bounce as he is off the catch, and has a nifty mid-range pull-up game evidenced by his 44.7 percent shooting on two-point jumpers despite less than six percent of those shots being assisted. Graham boasts innate feel and timing as an off-dribble attacker, and frequently manipulates defenses with the subtlety and nuance of a natural point guard.
And though he’s hardly an elite-caliber athlete, Graham has enough burst to consistently crease the paint – not to mention sky for alley-oop dunks in transition.
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Offense is what’s shooting Graham up draft boards, but defense might be his calling card. He’s the Jayhawks’ best perimeter defender, combining a dogged attitude with quick feet and active hands that allow him to aggressively pressure opposing ball handlers and shoot weak-side passing lanes. After Oklahoma All-American Buddy Hield torched Kansas for 46 points in a triple overtime thriller at Allen Fieldhouse, Self stuck Graham on the Sooners’ superstar for the duration of the rematch in Norman – and Hield shot 5-of-15 from the floor.
The NBA Fit: Graham won’t be a superstar. It would even be a surprise if he ever started on a good team. The league’s premium on shooting and passing has never been higher, though, and a bench player who brings both those attributes to the table could thrive in any system.
Choosing a team that makes sense for Graham doesn’t make any sense by itself. Predicting likely second-round picks is futile. But if Graham gets his shot in the NBA, don’t be shocked when he sticks for a long time – wherever it may be.
The Bottom Line: You won’t find Graham’s name among ESPN’s top 100 draft prospects for 2016. DraftExpress lists him as the 76th-best sophomore in college basketball. If the draft was tomorrow, there’s a very good chance that Graham wouldn’t hear his name called.
But the proceedings aren’t for another three months, and the Jayhawks are this tournament’s closest thing to a prohibitive favorite. Graham is also playing his best basketball of the season. He tied his season high with 27 points (on 10 shots) against West Virginia in the Big 12 title game; has scored in double figures in 10 of Kansas’ last 12 games; and had 27 points while simultaneously shutting down Hield a month ago, too.
Certain players relish the all-or-nothing stakes of March, and Graham seems to fit that bill. He could be the biggest riser in this class by the time the Tournament ends in early April. Every team in the NBA, after all, could use another playmaking shooter off the bench.
Does that mean an excellent month would propel Graham to the lottery? No, and his chances at the first round alone might be more accurately described as slim than legitimate. But the Jayhawks’ title aspirations go hand in hand with Graham’s draft stock nonetheless. And if Self’s team makes good on them, the basketball world will undoubtedly realize its best player will make good on NBA dreams, too.
