Everyone wants to talk about super teams. Of course, the Heat, Knicks, Clippers, Celtics and all the rest of ’em capture the imagination of the NBA fan base. There’s nothing quite like feeling the anticipation and excitement in the air when you see that news hit telling you Chris Paul has finally been traded and he’s going to the Clippers. What immediately follows is typically more invigorating than what eventually happens. The promise of what could be is almost always better than what is. Even here at Dime, we find ourselves talking about one third of the NBA about 80 percent of the time. That doesn’t mean we don’t care about everyone else.
In the final week before the regular season tips off for real this Sunday on Christmas, we’ll break down each division, team by team in an effort to give you an overall look at what to expect in what’s sure to be a relentlessly exciting season.
We started things off by getting our East Coast bias on and diving into the Atlantic on Monday, then the Central Division yesterday and the Southwest ealier today. Now, we’re hitting up the Northwest Division.
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5. Utah Jazz
The New Guys That Matter: Josh Howard, Enes Kanter, Jamaal Tinsley, Alec Burks
Projected Starting Five: Devin Harris, Raja Bell, Gordon Hayward, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson
Although on the surface the difference between Minnesota and Utah seemed barely visible, it was in fact enormous last season. The Jazz won 22 more games, but even that was misleading. Once they got rid of Deron Williams and Jerry Sloan got up and left, Utah went 12-29 during the second half of the season. Throw in that Minnesota’s point differential shows they should’ve been much better than 17 wins and you can begin to understand this ranking.
The Jazz have quietly put together one of the nicest young rosters in the league, amazing when you think about how weak they drafted towards the tail end of the Stockton/Malone era, and how you constantly hear people say no one likes playing there. When we asked Ronnie Brewer to compare living in Utah with Chicago earlier this fall, he laughed out loud. As for the current team, Derrick Favors is just starting to turn the corner, Gordon Hayward might soon grow up enough to get facial hair and Enes Kanter, an enigman of an enigma (He was already sort of unknown before Kentucky, then when he wasn’t allowed to play, he became an even bigger mystery), could be special down the road.
But as good as the kids are, you don’t win in the NBA with the Brady Bunch. Utah’s record will come down to how well Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap play together (I can almost guarantee one will be traded at some point this year), and if this Devin Harris isn’t actually the undead zombie of the guy who used to terrorize opposing backcourts.
They won’t win much this year, but between the dope new uniforms and the young frontcourt, I like their future.
BEST CASE: Favors becomes the future star this team needs while some of their veteran bigs are shipped out for more help on the wings. By the end of the year, they know who the keepers are and finish off the season just barely missing out on the playoffs.
WORST CASE: The potential of their young players prove to be mirages and the team finds it has neither the talent nor the leadership to pull a sinking ship out of the water.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
The New Guys That Matter: J.J. Barea, Brad Miller, Ricky Rubio, Derrick Williams
Projected Starting Five: Luke Ridnour, Wesley Johnson, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Darko Milicic
Before we get too far ahead of ourselves: Minnesota is scaring the NBA in the same way the Scary Movie series used to frighten people. That is, hardly at all. The Wolves can’t be taken seriously just yet. But for once, they have a plan and in just 12 months, everything has turned around. It’s funny to view the trajectory of David Kahn. He was a joke for years, running in circles. Eventually at some point last year, we all started to look around and think “Wait… is Minnesota quietly putting together a nice future?”
The bulk of the credit probably can’t go to the front office. I truly doubt they thought Kevin Love would develop into this. Now 25 pounds lighter, Love might go for a 40/40 this year (Not really, but what else can this kid do?). He boards. He shoots threes. He works his ass off every day. He scores against anyone. And now, Love should be constantly thanking whoever blessed him with Rick Adelman. Every hour. The infuriating triangle is out and so is Kurt Rambis. Adelman’s presence alone should equals seven more wins.
Now that they have a three-point guard rotation of Ridnour, Barea and one of the league’s most promising rookies, Ricky Rubio, David Kahn point guard jokes can at least calm down. Ridnour isn’t horrible, but he’s merely keeping the seat warm until Rubio takes it over. Barea has basically the exact same role he did in Dallas (albeit he’s being paid A LOT more).
My gut tells me Beasley gets moved at some point within the next year to open up more space for Derrick Williams, who already looks like a future stud. A frontline of Love, Williams and Beasley sounds promising, but there’s little doubt they would struggle to go deep in the playoffs with a small lineup like that.
BEST CASE: They become the most fun team to watch in the league as every one of their fans comes back. They sneak into the playoffs and cause major problems for one contender. Rubio shows he’s the real deal, and Williams/Love develop great chemistry.
WORST CASE: Rubio can’t handle the spotlight, Love takes a step back and the feel-good vibes surrounding the team go up in fumes as the pressure of anticipations start to wear them down. Then, Kahn strikes again.
3. Portland Trail Blazers
The New Guys That Matter: Jamal Crawford, Nolan Smith
Projected Starting Five: Raymond Felton, Wesley Matthews, Gerald Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby
So how is it that a team with Ray Felton, Jamal Crawford, Wesley Matthews, Gerald Wallace and LaMarcus Aldridge can be taken as only first round fodder for some elite Western Conference team? That’s a big-time list of players, at least compared to Denver, who march out no names (and hard to pronounce names) all over the court.
Well for one, Portland has way too many swing players and not enough power. Get past Aldridge and you’re left with a decomposing Camby, Kurt Thomas (too old) and Craig Smith (too small).
Compare that to the perimeter, where there are around six players who’ll be thrown into the dog pit and told “The three survivers who come out will get the major PT.” This is a disaster waiting to happen. For example, Matthews and Crawford will probably split the time at two guard. But as completely different players, how can you determine who deserves minutes? Crawford plays no defense and Matthews creates no shots. Combine them and we might be on to something. Rhythm is key in basketball, and something tells me the Blazers could have problems with that.
Besides the annual “He’s lost 15 pounds” stories, nothing gets overplayed more often in an NBA training camp than the idea of pushing the rock. Everyone says they’ll run and play faster. Everyone believes they’ll get out on the break and yet it rarely happens. Habits can be hard to break, and Nate McMillan has some bad ones. Two straight years this was the slowest-paced team in the NBA. But now he expects us to believe he’ll run more? Even if he is lightening up and letting his players bump hip-hop legends in warm-ups, I don’t trust him to hit the gas.
BEST CASE: They start running and go small with Wallace at the four. Everyone stays healthy after the horrible luck they had earlier this month, and they nearly upset someone again in the first round.
WORST CASE: The players and coaches rebel over what system works best. The guards rebel over minutes and they slip behind Minnesota in the standings.
2. Denver Nuggets
The New Guys That Matter: Kenneth Faried, Rudy Fernandez
Projected Starting Lineup: Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Nene
Denver’s strength lies in its numbers. They aren’t top heavy, but they just keep coming and coming. The largest pack of hyenas in the league. Because they’re so deep, the Nuggets can get away with playing an old, Earth-bound Miller at the two as well as playing Mozgov at all. If someone struggles, George Karl doesn’t need to look far for a replacement.
I’m not sure if this was done purposely – I don’t want to put too much faith in the IQ of an NBA GM – but Denver is loaded with players perfectly diagramed to exploit the advantages of playing in the Rockies. The best fit out of all of ’em, though, is Lawson. Karl is giving the point guard the green light to create chaos. With total support, and the confidence of knowing there’s literally no one in the entire league who can stick with you, Lawson should blow up this year.
With the return of Nene and Afflalo, Denver’s built for this season and built to win in their building. If Wilson Chandler is eventually let out of his Chinese contract and comes back to Denver next spring, we’re looking at a very dangerous team.
BEST CASE: Faried dunks on everyone alive, Denver gets a boost from a returning Chandler in the spring and Lawson takes the next step in his development. The Nuggets surprise everyone and get to the West semis.
WORST CASE: The good feelings from last spring evaporate as Nene takes a step back. The lack of a go-to scorer causes everyone to try to get theirs and it looks like a different team two weeks into the season. Finally, Fernandez pisses everyone off to the point he nearly gets jumped by his own teammates.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
The New Guy That Matters: Reggie Jackson
Projected Starting Lineup: Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins
Sam Presti doesn’t have to do a damn thing except sit back and watch. His masterpiece is almost complete. There’s not much else he can do. It’ll be up to the players to mature, grow and win. Whereas everyone else is rushing to give a call to available free agents to fill holes, Presti did his homework, found himself ahead of the game and now has probably the best team in the West to show for it.
Do you realize Kevin Durant had a down year last season? Even as Westbrook’s numbers skyrocketed, Durant was settling into his place as the future face of the league. But his numbers dropped for a good reason: Everyone around him got a lot better. Ibaka became a defensive machine, Perkins settled the Jeff Green debate (Should he stay or go?) and in the second half of the season, Harden looked like the best bench player in the league. KD’s blowup happened two seasons ago. Then last year, Westbrook bulldozed his way into the All-Star Game. So who’s next? Harden looks like he’s ready to take off. But Ibaka does as well. If they both make the jump, call it all off. The West would be over.
In just two years, they’ve gone from under-the-radar to red carpet special, and with the rest of the Western Conference powers losing steam, the Thunder are in a nearly perfect position.
BEST CASE: Is championship reaching too far? The Thunder are right there and the experience of falling apart in the playoffs last season surely still eats at them. Doubtful that it would happen twice.
WORST CASE: Westbrook and Durant have a falling out, the frontline is exposed for being nothing but defense and everyone tunes on Scott Brooks. Someone upsets them in the first round.
What do you think of this division? How high can Minnesota climb?
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