Everyone wants to talk about super teams. Of course, the Heat, Knicks, Clippers, Celtics and all the rest of ’em capture the imagination of the NBA fan base. There’s nothing quite like feeling the anticipation and excitement in the air when you see that news hit telling you Chris Paul has finally been traded and he’s going to the Clippers. What immediately follows is typically more invigorating than what eventually happens. The promise of what could be is almost always better than what is. Even here at Dime, we find ourselves talking about one third of the NBA about 80 percent of the time. That doesn’t mean we don’t care about everyone else.
In the final week before the regular season tips off for real this Sunday on Christmas, we have broken down each division, team by team in an effort to give you an overall look at what to expect in what’s sure to be a relentlessly exciting season.
We started things off by getting our East Coast bias on and diving into the Atlantic on Monday, then the Central Division and Southeast. After hitting up the Western Conference’s Northwest and Pacific Divisions, today we’re wrapping it up in the Southwest Division.
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5. New Orleans Hornets
The New Guys That Matter: Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu
Projected Starting Five: Jarrett Jack, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Carl Landry, Emeka Okafor
I wrote just after the trade that shook the world that this could be the worst team in the NBA. While I caught a lot of criticism for that, crazier things have happened, like Common dissing Drake for basically being a 2002 Common. Offensively, this team will be one of the worst in the league. Their best scorer, Eric Gordon, isn’t a playmaker. They have Ariza, who might own the worst shot selection since Cheddar Bob. Jack is a solid player, and would make the perfect backup on a championship team, but he’s neither a scorer nor a creator. He does the little things, and now since he’s being asked to do the big things, I have the feeling he’s going to have some serious trouble. Okafor can’t score whatsoever, and Kaman is ripe bait for a trade (Besides, if you plan on running your offense through Kaman, be prepared to watch him fumble the ball against double-teams, throw bad passes out of the post, take at least four head-shaking shots a game and generally leaving you saying “Our offense sucks.” It’s not that he’s a bad player. Far from it. But Kaman inevitably leaves you wanting more.)
Defensively, because they’re coached by Monty Williams and because most of their rotation at least gives a better than average effort, they should be as good as they were last season (12th in defensive efficiency). That’s the true heart of this team and if they have any shot of winning close to 30 games, it’ll be what they ride night after night.
It also hurts to be put in the league’s “A Division.” Memphis, San Antonio and Dallas could all be considered title contenders, and Houston is perennially the most underrated team in the NBA. That leaves New Orleans, stuck in transition with too many distractions, too many holes and not enough time to answers all of those questions.
Major turnover within an organization is almost never a positive, especially in a season that’ll be raining games almost every single night. But New Orleans – whether by design or not – has undergone MAJOR changes in the last few years. As the blog At The Hive writes, “In fact, only one member of the 2010 side (Emeka Okafor) is still on the team in December 2011.” Think about that.
BEST CASE: With the storm circling them, the players come together and play harder than anyone in the league. The crowds in turn get behind them and Gordon becomes so good as a scorer, they have to invite him to the All-Star Game. New Orleans finishes at nearly .500 as the surprise team in the league. Meanwhile in L.A., Chris Paul’s knees deteriorate and the Clippers barely sneak into the playoffs.
WORST CASE: They become the worst offensive team in the league and struggle to give the same defensive effort every night. Kaman spends most of his time hunting, shooting off fireworks and generally seeping further and further into the backcountry. Gordon shows he’s much better as a No. 2 option and then decides he’s much better off somewhere else down the road. Then to top it all off, the Clippers make the Finals while the Hornets hope for nice ping-pong ball bounces.
4. Houston Rockets
The New Guys That Matter: Marcus Morris, Samuel Dalembert
Projected Starting Five: Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin, Chase Budinger, Luis Scola, Dalembert
All those plans. All those expectations. Out the window. Houston had been building for this moment for two-plus years, building up assets and picks and cap room. So when Pau Gasol became available, when Nene showed he was willing to come to Houston, the reshaping phase seemed over. Well, we all know what happened after that. Chris Paul ended up in Los Angeles. Gasol went back to L.A. Nene went back to Denver. And the Rockets were left to sign Dalembert.
While Dalembert isn’t a bad player – he averaged 8.1 points and 8.2 rebounds a night last season, which is almost exactly what his career averages are – he won’t be carrying any teams to the playoffs.
Inevitably on Christmas morning, someone will give me a DVD. Considering I rarely seem to watch movies anymore, this is somewhat of a fallback option: easy to find… I won’t be dissatisfied… and they make for simple gifts. These aren’t clothes; Everyone is not rushing to exchange DVDs. That’s how I see the Rockets. Tough. Gritty. Neither spectacularly good or bad. They are what they are. And David Stern assured them this summer they’ll be that again this season.
One thing Houston does have is the most underrated backcourt in the whole league. Lowry is one of the five most disruptive small guys in the game, and Kevin Martin was second in the whole league in points per minute. They will keep them in games.
BEST CASE: Everyone continues their trend of playing out of their minds, Dalembert doesn’t slack off now that he’s paid and is nearly 30 years old, and Kevin McHale is the direct opposite of what he was as a GM. Houston sneaks into the playoffs.
WORST CASE: McHale is awful, the team fumbles through the first month of the season still mourning the trade that didn’t happen, they fall behind in the standings and even their backcourt has trouble replicating their past performances.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
The New Guys That Matter: Dante Cunningham, Jeremy Pargo, Josh Selby
Projected Starting Five: Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol
Oh, it pains me to put this team third in its own division. Potentially, I think they have what it takes to go deeper than they did last year. They’ve shown they own San Antonio, and with Dallas being as weak as ever upfront, I can’t see them matching up with the Bash Brothers. But this is for the regular season, and in the regular season, you have ups and downs, players going for numbers, bad luck turning into Achilles tendon tears (oh my, Darrell Arthur) and the disease of more. On paper, this could be the best starting five in the game. In real life, I’m waiting for something to screw it all up.
Besides Gay’s injury, Memphis had so many things go right for them last year – Gasol and Randolph never getting hurt or even having a rough patch of games, Allen having the best year of his life, Conley playing better than he ever has – that you either have to assume they all turned a corner at the same time or figure it was a meeting of the comets. I’m not saying it can’t happen again. But almost inevitably, they’ll take a small step back this season.
Rudy Gay told me all summer his return won’t hurt anything. But no matter what he says, the framework of last season will be disrupted. You’re working in a 20-point scorer, possibly a future All-Star back into your lineup. That’ll take time.
And we’re talking regular season. The Grizzlies are built for seven-game marathon series. They should still get a shot at those this spring.
BEST CASE: The magic continues. Gay flows seamlessly back into the lineup, and everyone is content with the same roles they had last year. The team gets favorable playoff matchups and advances all the way to the West Finals.
WORST CASE: Problems arise almost from the start as everyone wants something: a little more PT, a few more shots, some more respect. Just as Gay comes back, they lose someone else to a major injury and struggle to stay in the playoff race.
2. San Antonio Spurs
The New Guys That Matter: Kawhi Leonard, T.J. Ford
Projected Starting Five: Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan, DeJuan Blair
Even at their old age, these bachelors continue to hit up clubs and pick up chicks they have no business copping numbers from. Weren’t they supposed to be done five years ago? Well, when you really sit down and look at the roster, outside of Duncan and Manu, it’s very young and very athletic.
They won’t match last season’s pace for a number of reasons, but most importantly because there’s just no way they can keep it up. I don’t believe they were as good as their record advertised last season and the same situation – rolling up a high seed before getting upset in the playoffs – could happen again. Gregg Popovich will manage his stars through all of these back-to-back-to-back sets and will almost certainly forfeit games here and there (One way I could see the Grizz finishing ahead of them).
But they still have Ginobili, whose winning spirit – *cliché alert – pushes them over the top 10-15 times a year. There’s just something about him. Even the worst Denzel movie is at least watchable because he makes everything seem genuine. Ginobili always gives his team a shot at winning. Memphis, to me, is the better team. But I’ll side with San Antonio’s consistency. Whether they go for wins or not, the Spurs just have a habit of finishing with a great record. Just like the habit I have of talking in clichés when I write about them.
BEST CASE: Popovich has the best coaching season of his career, Parker doesn’t get into any more off-the-court disagreements with teammates and the Spurs rid their consistency in a season of unknown all the way to the West Finals.
WORST CASE: Duncan’s legs give out, Parker finally gets dealt and it screws up the team’s chemistry, and the condensed schedule puts San Antonio in a major bind. They start the playoffs on the road and are gone sooner than the liquor at Charlie Sheen‘s holiday party.
1. Dallas Mavericks
The New Guys That Matter: Lamar Odom, Delonte West, Vince Carter
Projected Starting Five: Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Brendan Haywood
Remember that one year where the Mavs finally ditched the offensive juggernaut thing and became a staunch, hard-nosed, defensive unit that capitalized on everyone else’s mistakes and protected their own paint? That team just won a championship right? Well now that team is gone. Some of it is in New Jersey. The rest is in New York, Minnesota and Los Angeles. Instead, they have Carter (about the last person you’d want playing defense), Odom (who is more versatile than he is staunch) and West (too crazy to lean on in big moments).
Mark Cuban has laid out his master plan for everyone to see, and while it could pay off in the future, for right now the Mavs will have to defend their title in an entirely new way. Haywood is strong around the rim, and a better-than-average shot blocker. But he’s not the athlete nor the energy man that Chandler is.
For Dallas, this season will be a mental test. How bad do they really want it? The second time is always harder than the first, and for the Mavs, not having some of their leading men from last year will only make it more difficult. Team after team have tried to rely on VC and it hasn’t worked out. Odom was phenomenal in L.A. when he had Kobe and Pau besides him. But how will he react to having a bigger role here? And can any of their young players step up and fill the void left by DeShawn Stevenson and J.J. Barea?
BEST CASE: Mere mortals bow in the presence of Dirk while their offensive versatility proves too difficult to defend without much time in-between games to study it. Dallas plays in the shadows for most of the year before making a run at the end of the regular season and carrying it all the way to another championship.
WORST CASE: They fall off in much the same way the 2007 Heat did after winning a title. Too much turnover, too much offense and very little defense brings them to their knees in a first round exit. They don’t have that same itch, that desperation for the title like they did last year and it shows almost right from the start.
Does Memphis have what it takes to win this division? Are the Mavs better this year than last year?
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