Not long after the final buzzer signaled the end of the Indiana Pacers’ season on Sunday, Victor Oladipo fired off a text to his trainer. The 2017-18 season wasn’t even cold yet, but Oladipo wanted to start preparing for next season, eager to build off of the success that saw Indiana become a surprising 5-seed in the East after being written off post-Paul George trade.
Hopefully for the Pacers, the front office is taking a similar cue and looking forward to how to build on this season and not being satisfied with the results of a surprise postseason run. Indiana likely won’t have a ton of cap space to work with this summer, but there are things Kevin Pritchard and company can do to avoid the pitfalls that have trapped other teams that have recently found themselves in similar positions.
The Portland Trail Blazers are the best example of a team that made a surprising run to the playoffs when they were expected to be fighting for lottery position during the 2015-16 season. Instead, the Blazers clawed their way to the fifth seed in the West at 44-38, making the second round thanks to the emergence of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum as a lethal backcourt combination. Portland also saw major leaps taken by role players like Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard, Maurice Harkless, Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis, and Al-Farouq Aminu.
Lillard and McCollum were handed max deals, which was more than understandable and both have continued to play up to a high level in the regular season. The problem Portland has run into, which is causing many fans to wonder if they need to tear things down, is that the front office fell in love with those role players that had career-type years and handed them massive contracts with the idea they would continue developing.
Allen Crabbe was given a 4-year, $75 million offer sheet by Brooklyn that Portland chose to match. He was traded, ironically, to the Nets last summer. Maurice Harkless was given a 4-year, $42 million deal, which he redeemed to an extent in the second half of this season after a disastrous 2016-17 campaign. Meyers Leonard was given $41 million over four years and has fallen almost completely out of the rotation. Their big free agent signing that summer was Evan Turner, who got a 4-year, $70 million deal even though Portland just handed out more than $110 million to wing players in Crabbe and Harkless.
That has left Portland capped out through 2020, with a clear ceiling on where they can go in the Western Conference. A similar cautionary example are the Heat, which made similar moves tand find themselves in a similar, if not worse, position than Portland. The Heat didn’t even make the playoffs in 2017, but a hot streak to end the season had them confident in the future. In response, they chose to hand out big money deals to James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, and Josh Richardson. These deal will likewise keep the Heat capped out through 2020 with what appears to be an even lower ceiling than Portland.
The Pacers should feel quite good about themselves right now, but not to the point of assuming this team will only continue to improve, particularly with their role players. Victor Oladipo has emerged as an All-Star, and he’s under contract through 2021. Domantas Sabonis is under team control through 2020 on his rookie deal, so they have time to watch him develop. Myles Turner will be a restricted free agent next summer, and they can let the market dictate whether they keep him, although it seems like a lock they match any offer on the promising young center.
Outside of those three players, the Pacers should be careful of committing long-term, big money to anyone else. The good news is they don’t need to make many decisions now, and can see how this team responds to this success next season before the majority of the roster beyond those three previously mentioned gets set to hit free agency.
Cory Joseph is likely to be the biggest decision they’ll be forced to make this summer, as his near $8 million player option seems to be lower than the value he could find on the market. He’s been a great first guard off the bench for Indiana, but they have to find the line of where his contract would go over his value. Bojan Bogdanovic has been a key piece for Indiana this season as their best three-point shooting threat, but I’d be wary of expecting the 29 year old to continue improving and wouldn’t break the bank on him next summer when he hits unrestricted free agency. Thaddeus Young has been great and may return on his $13.7 million player option next season, but he’ll be 30 when he hits free agency next summer and committing long-term to him would be a risk. Darren Collison was terrific in Game 7 and serves as a steady hand at point guard, even if he’s not exactly dynamic.
The Pacers will have lots of decisions to make next summer, and that might be the best thing for them, provided they can get through this summer without getting antsy and handing out extensions like candy. It’s possible staying the course will be their best bet, because like Portland, there’s a small market tax Indiana pays to get people to come play for them and history shows it’s tough to woo big-name free agents to Indianapolis. That said, the monotony of early playoff exits wears on fan bases after a few years, so it will be a test for the Pacers to stay vigilant while trying to build around Oladipo.
There is nothing wrong with striving to be a consistent playoff team. There are very few franchise that can be legitimate title contenders each season and a few of those slots seem assured over the next few years to go to the Warriors, Rockets, wherever LeBron is, and, possibly, the Sixers. This is not to say Indiana should tear it all down because this group can’t make it there and that a lengthy run of regular season success that results in an annual trip to the playoffs isn’t admirable.
What I am saying is the Pacers should simply take stock of all of their options, look for upgrades where available on the trade and free agency market, and simply avoid committing long-term to a group of role players out of blind faith that they won’t regress and can develop lineally.
Next year can be an assessment period to see who develops, who regresses, and where the team as a whole stands. Some of their expiring contracts could be attractive pieces at the trade deadline, and if Pritchard proved anything this past year, it’s that he’s pretty good at evaluating young talent and could use those deals to continue to tweak the roster. Using money wisely in free agency this year to continue to upgrade the roster would be a start. They can get to about $18 million in space by declining team options and waiving Al Jefferson, whose $10 million contract is only guaranteed at $4 million. With so few teams having cap space, Indiana could actually be an attractive landing spot given this season’s success.
The known always feels safer in the moment, but as the Blazers and Heat can attest, there are plenty of problems with trying to capture lightning from a single-season run in a bottle. Indiana had a fantastic year and went on a run that defied expectations. The best thing they can do is spend the next year learning whether this was a one-off run for some of these players or if they’re the real deal, with the goal being to avoid the trap that’s caught other teams.
